Tiger Geist

I’ll start with my 2008 concerns and later move onto how things could go right for a successful 2008 playoff run. I’ll update as the roster outlook becomes more clear in the coming weeks. Today we discuss concerns with hitting.

Rightfully, most will say “this is detroit’s strength”… and thats why i’m starting here. Its the easiest to write. However, there are a few ares that do concern me.

Jacque Jones: Were last year’s power numbers a fluke?

Jones owns a career .280, but prior to last year he averaged over 21 home runs as a full time player. In 2006 he hit a mere 5 home runs. Jones struggled in the first half of the year, but by the end most of his stats (sans home runs) were in line with his career averages (he even matched his career high in doubles). His 2006 stats were solid, so we can’t blame a league switch as the culprit. Even in a platoon with a right handed power hitter (Thames at the moment), Jacque should get at least 2/3 of the at bats in left field. Corner outfield positions usually put power numbers at a premium, and Detroit could use some more left handed ‘pop’ in the lineup.

Edgar Rentaria: Was 2005 an anomaly, or is the American League kryptonite?

Not much else needs to be said here; Edgar had an awful year in the Boston spotlight in 2005. Detroit has a much more forgiving media, but expectations are pretty high for Tiger fans these days. He doesn’t hit many home runs, and his double numbers are on a downward trend.

Miguel Cabrera: New guy on the block

Similar with Edgar Rentaria, how will he handle the pressure of switching to a much stronger pitching league, AND deal with the expectations of winning now? I don’t care if he leads the league in errors this year, he will be judged on his offensive numbers by the fans.

Catcher (pick one): How do deal with the #8 hitter?

Pudge worries me; his power numbers are non-existent. My only hope is he has a great contract year. He’s been solid in recent grapefruit league games, so I imagine he still has something left in the tank. I do imagine that whomever is the backup, they will need to play quite a bit to get an optimal year out of Pudge. My suggestion? Try to walk more… and Pudge will save some energy, instead of swinging at everything thrown at him. About the backup? It doesn’t matter, none of them can hit (Please sign Piazza!) anyway. Even if Vance Wilson does return to form, he’s a 35 year old career .250 hitter who hasn’t played in a year.

DH: Who do they trot out at the DH spot if Sheffield only plays in 120 games?

I’m not sold on Thames being an everyday DH. Sheffield’s age and injury issues the past few years (wrist, shoulder, leg cramps) indicates he can only realistically be counted on for 120 - 130 games / year. Sheffield changes the entire lineup with his ability to work counts; what is the plan when he can’t play?

Strikeouts vs Walks: How fast can we get to the opposing bullpen?

I still think the team strikes out too much, though we are in the middle of the American League. The Tigers were second to last in walks last year, and that needs improving to be a great team. Our batting order should murder opposing relief pitching, especially the stopgap middle relievers. Inge & Granderson were in the top 10 last year in AL strikeouts; we replace Inge with Cabrera, who struck out 127 last year AND is changing leagues (to be fair, he’ll have better protection this year). Great teams work the count and get on base any way possible.

I’ve never been a huge Marcus Thames fan. There isn’t much to dislike about the guy; he’s an average defender with amazing right-handed power. But nothing really stands out about him that made me feel that he makes a team better. Granted, I won’t rant on about Thames like i will that no talent ass clown who used to play third for us, but i’m not in love with the guy.

Today’s news about injury issues with the AARP outfield the Mets are trying to field, coupled with reports that Detroit and NYM discussed a Thames deal involving some relief arms, indicates that a trade might make a lot of sense to everyone involved. Any why not? Thames’ average died last year as the team made a playoff push, and some of the lineups and off-season moves indicate the team doesn’t think he is an every-day player.

Thames digs the long ball. However, his strikeout ratio (one every 3.78 AB) puts him in poor company… though Mr Inge bested him with one every 3.3 AB. The Tigers were 4th in the AL in strikeouts last year, with two full time players (Inge / Granderson) in the top 10. With their current roster full of high-average hitters, they have to clear out some of their strikeout kings. If you have a deal on the table, you HAVE to pull the trigger. Is anyone really excited about Jason Grilli? Zach Miner? Actually, yes… other teams love batting against Grilli.

Last thought: If Inge is such a super athlete, why don’t the Tigers trade him to the Lions for a 5th round draft pick? Sure, he might have to re-do his contract for salary cap reasons, but put him in at slot WR or some form of defensive back. Problem solved.

So far every heading has ended with a question mark…

What is the deal with Francisco Cruceta?  Rumors are he’s scheduled to get into the US this weekend.  I just flew in from Costa Rica last week… stood in line at Immigration… let me tell you we let everyone into the US.  How is it that this guy can’t find his way to Lakeland?

In the search for a backup catcher, as Vance Wilson doesn’t appear to be healthy, and Brandon Inge can’t seem to keep his mouth shut, there seems to be a great solution already sitting out there: Mike Piazza.

He’s available and (you’d hope) looking to win a ring. He’s not a great catcher anymore, and you could easily argue he never was (though he has caught two no-hitters). But for spot duty? Why not. Here’s the deal: Pudge isn’t much of a hitter anymore. He’s going to easily have his worse year batting… ever. Piazza should outhit him, giving you a better average and slugging percentage as a backup. Piazza can also DH as needed, proving last year with Oakland that he can do well in that role. Younger players often have a difficult time adjusting to the DH role; there is no telling if Miguel Cabrera will thrive on ‘off’ days at DH.

Another good thing? Apparently Piazza and Pudge are buddies. He also married a playmate; that alone has to increase clubhouse chemistry by 48%.

Tell me you wouldn’t like to attend the annual player / family softball game?

Would he come cheap? Probably not. But its obvious the Tigers are in ‘win now’ mode, so you make a move like this. And it doesn’t cost you anything — no one thinks Vance Wilson is a starting caliber catcher. And it protects your offense against an injury to a 36 year old who seems to be shriveling away before our eyes, one who swings at everything he sees and has limited power now. At 39, we’re probably not going to see 500 at-bats for Sheffield either. Why not load up while you can?

Everyone is ganging up on Brandon Inge lately… and I’ll join them. New blog.. have to start somewhere. When the trade went through for Cabrera, fans started saying, “What should we do about Inge? We like him! He’s our favorite player! He’s so cute!”. Now his act is wearing a little thin, and I don’t quite get it.

Last year in spring training, my father pointed across the infield at Inge and said “that guy sucks, i wish they’d get rid of him”. “No” I explained, “he’s a great defender. He gets to balls that other players don’t, and thats why he had so many errors”… basically repeating what every sports writer has said about Inge over the last two years. Well… now I’m eating my words. Inge can’t hit. He’s an above average fielder, probably not an elite fielder. So what if he was an elite fielding third basemen? Doesn’t every team have an elite fielding third basemen somewhere in the organization that can’t hit? Yes.. the difference is most aren’t paying one $6+ million / year. If defense was so important, Ramon Santiago would be starting at short for Detroit AND the all-star team.

Here’s an interesting comparison on last year’s stats. Compare Brandon Inge with Jack Hannahan, who we gave away to Oakland last year:

3rd Base Stat Comparison

Obviously a full year projection may be tough for Hannahan, but keep in mind Oakland’s awful lineup last year… and Hannahan probably makes less then I do. Inge has had a decent 4 year OPS streak (793, 749, 776. 688), but his average has fallen each year as well (287, 261, 253, 236). Obviously these are not numbers that would make anyone think twice about playing Inge over Cabrera… but it does show why he has absolutely no value on the trade market. Every team has an exact player like him… so much so that we gave one away last year, and probably have two more on the farm.

My surprise is why anyone thinks Inge has value as a ’super sub’. He doesn’t seem to play anywhere else in the infield but third, and he has little experience in the outfield. I can’t believe he is a better CF then either Clevlen or Raburn, no matter what Mr Tiger thinks. On that note, if we wanted a backup outfielder who can’t hit, we’ve got tons of those guys — its called the minors. But lets look at Ryan Raburn’s 2007 stats for a moment:

Ryan Rayburn 2007 Stats

Raburn doesn’t appear to walk as often, but his OPS is a very solid 847. Hannahan and Raburn’s numbers point out something very interesting: Inge just doesn’t hit many doubles, and he strikes out a lot — feast or famine. For Raburn… thats basically the sample size you’d expect to see again this year from a sub; you know what to expect in 140ish at bats. For Inge? Who knows. Can’t you imagine him giving the “Its really hard to get myself ready when i’m not playing everyday” line? Doesn’t a productive (and rather silent) Ryan Raburn make a lot more sense as a super sub? It can’t be about money; Illitch has given away too many big contracts this year to worry about $6million from Inge (they just dumped a ton of $$ on career 42-55 Nate Robertson). My guess is they have to be showcasing him for a trade. There is no way I’d go north with that guy. Hell, i’d pass him through waivers and send him to Toledo.

Ok, they can’t pass him through waivers due to his MLB experience, or any team can sign him and we pay the difference. BUT I’D DO IT ANYWAY. Set the tone. You think he’s buddies with the team at this point? Did Sheffield say “you know, i wasn’t sure if i’d like playing for the Tigers, but they have BRANDON F’ING INGE on the team! He’s a winner!”. Not quite.. you hear that about Pudge… Guillen… but not a lot of guys are dreaming of playing alongside the might Inge.

Last thought: How dumb is Brandon Inge?

He went to college… maybe he never took a business course (Note: I went to college and I never took a business course. But I did get an ‘A’ in guitar once). Looking at the points above… every team has a great fielding third basemen who can’t hit… and most have one that can (normally their starter at the major league level). However, most teams do NOT have a catcher that can hit. Why doesn’t Inge tell Dombrowski “Hey, i’ll be your backup catcher this year… give me some at-bats at other positions, and i’ll be your starter next year”. Sound like a good idea? Sure he hates catching… I’ve had plenty of jobs that i hate. But i’d clean sewers for $6million / year. His contract is up in a couple of years… why not try to get one or two more multi-million dollar deals? Teams cough up for catchers that can somewhat hit (they’re paying Pudge $13mil knowing it will be the worst year of his career)… not for 33 year old third basemen (How fast can you say, “inside sales” Brandon?). Your knees should be fine at this point; if you were smart you’d catch for your next contract. You do NOT want to go north either unless you agree to catch; Detroit fans can turn on the good looking college kid just like anyone else (Hellooo Joey Harrington!). So pop a squat behind the plate or keep hitting and get yourself a different colored jersey.