Tiger Geist

Huge 10-9 win last night, with Polanco getting the game winning hit in the bottom of the ninth with two outs.  Great game, great hitting… not so great pitching.  We’ll let that slide for now.  Galarraga had a decent-not-great start (a Nate Robertson type of start, if you will) and Cruceta proved he is not super-human.  Sheffield may have turned the corner, and there is a lot to like about Matt Joyce so far.

I think the win could be really big, but only if they have a good performance tonight.  If not, they lost a four game series at home against a playoff team;  just not a good sign.  Leyland said he doesn’t believe in momentum, but hopefully Sheffield and Polanco have turned the corner (and it would be nice if Cabrera started to tear it up).

I do like Matt Joyce’s approach at the plate.  He doesn’t seem over-whelmed at all, even in his first game Tuesday (no-hits) or Wednesday (two hits, one against Papelbon in a pressure situation).  I also liked Clete Thomas, but for some reason he looks so goofy its hard to get a read on him.

The team needs an inspiring start tonight, and there is no time like the present for Justin Verlander to step up.  I think I’ve said that before… ugh.  Go Tigers.

Jason Beck writes that Brandon Inge will start catching more, and wonders if it is a nod to next year. I wonder if Inge read my blog earlier this year, ran the numbers, and saw that he’s worth more as a catcher. Or, maybe he’s been slightly humbled by no teams asking about him and his $6mil /year salary.

Interesting aspect: Putting Inge in the field could hurt Leyland’s ability for matchups late in the game. Consider the scenario: If Guillen has a day off, Inge is at third and is 0-3 through 8 innings. Men on second and third, one out, tie game, and the opposing team puts in a right-handed reliever. Leyland’s natural move would be to pinch-hit with Guillen (a switch hitter). But now he has to remember… close game that could go into extra innings… and no backup catcher. I guess this goes on a lot in the national leagues, but do you take that chance with a 36 year old behind the plate? Similarly, Inge can not DH, or, in case of injury to Pudge, Detroit has to play musical chairs NL style to avoid the pitcher batting.

Crazy? Last year, SF lost two catchers in one game (double switch and an injury to the backup), put Pedro Feliz behind the plate (first time ever), and had pitcher Noah Lowry in right field.

I also think this states a lot as to what the Tigers expect to get from Vance Wilson this year… that is… not much.

There are some decent articles on the Detroit News’ Site today, basically summing up what we’ve been saying all along:

• Detroit has too many DHs
• Pitching has been bad
• Carlos Guillen’s knees got bad, fast.

A little more elegantly written, but thats basically it. However, yesterday Orel Hershiser, doing color (with Steve Phillips) on espn’s Tiger - Red Sox broadcast, had some interesting stats that i hadn’t heard, and commentary that was sound.

On Jeremy Bonderman:

• Bonderman needs an off-speed pitch. Not news, but notably:
• Bonderman led the league in sliders thrown last year, at 34% of his pitches
• The next major leaguer on the list with a high percentage of sliders was at 22% (Nate Robertson
• This is why he had arm issues, and must correct it with another pitch that doesn’t strain his arm so much
• He gets behind hitters too often, and they sit on his pitches. Because he can’t alter his speed, they know how to time his fastballs in the strike zone
• Because he can’t alter his speeds, he draws a lot of contact and will give up a lot of hits

On Detroit in general:

• they are ‘in-between’ in finding themselves
• They aren’t hitting enough to run a power hitting lineup out that can’t field
• They aren’t pitching well enough to put a defensive lineup out that can’t hit

On Boston’s lineup:

• Not enough flexibility due to all the veterans on the team

The last part I think was an important aspect of letting Jacque Jones go — they now have some flexibility with the roster, with both Matt Joyce and Ryan Raburn having minor league options.

Another interesting aspect, in terms of Detroit’s bench selection, is Thames and Inge. They’re keeping Thames because he’s a right-handed power hitter off the bench… on a team full of right handed power hitters in the starting lineup. They’re keeping Inge (partly due to his contract) as a defensive player on a team that can’t pitch well enough to use him.

I guess the next three weeks will show a lot as to how Detroit can compete this year. I wonder if they’re willing to make some serious roster adjustments (IE trades) — it doesn’t seem this team can win a playoff series, and I’m not sure how long a team with the second highest payroll can sit with a .500 record.

Weak.  Jim Leyland gets everyone’s hopes up for a ‘drastic’ change the the lineup… and merely swaps Guillen for Sheffield.  His promise that no one would lose their job resulted in Jacque Jones heading to the unemployment line.  I’m guessing that next time Cabrera gets a day off, Leyland will call it a “monumental shift in the direction of the Detroit Tigers”.  

Big news: Gary “I can’t stay healthy when i play in the field” Sheffield will get some playing time in the outfield, tonight in left.  Apparently he requested it.  This must have been the reason that Jacque Jones kept playing, he just ‘requested’ to remain in the lineup.

Alright, after what i think was Detroit’s worst loss of the year, Leyland announces there will be some lineup changes coming.  Speculation revolves around Sheffield batting further down the order, but Leyland promises some big changes.  So i’ll take a guess and post what I’d do.

What is Detroit’s current issues?  They are very right handed, and they don’t run well.  They have a lot of power in the middle of the lineup, and the bottom of the order generally is too easy to get through.  I think Curtis Granderson is a hell of a player and he’s probably too good to lead off right now.  Polanco is a great hitter with runners in scoring position (historically), yet the bottom of the order isn’t on base enough to make it worthwhile.  What are my possible projections?

Someone at the bottom of the order needs to lead off, either Renteria or Pudge.  I’d go with Renteria based on his decent on-base percentage and higher batting average.  Batting second?  Carlos Guillen.  He’s not fielding well right now, but still hitting well and getting on base.  He’s also a switch hitter, lending some left / right ability through the lineup.

Third?  Go with Granderson here.  Speed and power and a left handed bat.  He’s also cut down on his strikeouts and improved his walks;  not quite Gary Sheffield in his prime, but let’s get some use out of his new power (5 home runs in only 10 games) with guys on base.

The next few spots are tough for me;  We need to get Magglio in here (still our best hitter), Cabrera, and Polanco.  Ideally I’d like to bat Polanco fifth, getting him more at-bats with runners on.  But you can’t ignore the all-star in Cabrera needs more at-bats then the sixth hitter.  So we’ll go Mags / Miguel / Placido  in the 4/5/6 range.

Seven?  I think you stick the DH in here.  Sheffield most of the time, Thames if he is playing (left or DH).  A little more power and some tougher at-bats near the bottom of the order.

Go with the catcher at spot #8.  Pudge most days, Inge if he’s playing in this order.  Ninth goes to Jacque Jones, who still somehow has a role on this team.  I’d love to see Clete Thomas here, where you could actually put him at leadoff and get a better lefty / righty setup.

So here’s my recommendation for Jimmy Leyland, since he’s such a loyal reader:

1. Renteria
2. Guillen
3. Granderson
4. Ordonez
5. Cabrera
6. Polanco
7. Sheffield
8. Rodriguez
9. Jones

Interesting part is the subs and how they plug directly into this lineup.  I’d still like to see Santiago lead off with the way he’s hitting now;  Inge fits at #8, as would Raburn at #9 (not that Raburn seems to fit into Leyland’s plans, I mean, why would you play a guy when Jacque Jones is hitting a hefty .173)

There you go.  We’ve got under 24 hours to see what Leyland rolls out against Boston.  But this is a HUGE series, something has to be done.  Even if its a wake-up call to the players (and to Mr $13million Gary Sheffield), they need to play well against Boston.

Freep talks about possible lineup changes to get more speed into the lineup.  Inge and Raburn to get more playing time?

I’m waiting to see the lineup changes for today’s afternoon game in Minny.  The easiest lineup change is to just shuffle the lineup — move Pudge (or Inge at catcher) up in the lineup… or drop Jacque Jones altogether and move his replacement up :).

I really don’t know how the team can continue to counter their power-hitting (yet slow) lineup.  A radical thought?  Move Granderson down to the three spot.  Renteria to lead off??  Not sure if Detroit has a ‘typical’ leadoff batter anyway.  But Granderson would give them some speed further down the lineup.  Probably won’t happen, but what options do they have at this point?

Ex-tiger Chris Shelton was called up for the Rangers this week, after scorching AAA.  He homered last night against the A’s..

It seems that, with the recent struggles of Gary Sheffield (he followed two solid games in New York with an 0-5er in the finale), everyone seems to be speculating a possible reuniting of Barry Bonds and Jim Leyland. They cite the fact that 1) Jim Leyland coached him 16 years ago and 2) Detroit needs a left handed hitter as the reason this marriage might work.

Honestly.. it probably would work. Let’s be clear: I might be slightly biased for Barry Bonds. He started hitting his stride (and by stride, I mean he started to figure out the correct steroid cocktail that worked for his body) when I moved to SF in 2000; this also coincided with the opening of PacBell/SBC/AT&T park. He loved the admiration the fans gave him in left field, and we loved giving him this admiration. He played gritty and inspired baseball.. or enough so that we ignored his issues. Like the obvious steroid abuse. Or the whole “lying to the grand jury” thing. Keeping a mistress, stashing her in AZ, and they lying to her (read “game of shadows” if you want a great history of Bonds). Honestly, the guy perfected the art of “asshole”.

But what does this really mean? Is Gary Sheffield that great of a guy? Probably not. I get it… outside of John Rocker, Bonds might be the ultimate asshole. Actually Jeff Kent apparently is not much of a clubhouse guy either (In a radio interview of a Giants announcer in 2004, the announcer stated that if a teammate of Bonds or Kent had the choice to get a ride home with either player, most players would probably just walk home).

Back to the point at hand, would he help Detroit? Absolutely. A left handed bat that hit an OPS of over 1000 last year while still playing in the field (not well, but still). He could probably DH until he was 137 years old and still outhit Brandon Inge. Would he fit into the clubhouse? Who knows. I’m not sure, with this team, they’re necessarily all going hunting together in the offseason anyway. What about the media? Outside of the sportstalk stations, who cares? Its not like its New York, Boston, Philly… even Chicago.

What about the fans??? A fond memory of mine is sitting in Mr B’s bar in Rochester with the Scott brothers watching hockey. The owner comes out, looks at the TV, and watches someone upend then-blackhawk Chris Chelios. The owner screams “He nailed Chelios! SCREW YOU CHELIOS!” and the bar went crazy. Two years later we traded for Chelios and he suddenly was a fan favorite. Short memories we have when someone can turn us into a winner (also see Coffee, Paul)

So where does all of this logic fall apart (IE why did i spend time writing this when everyone else suggests its a solid move)? Barry Bonds and Gary Sheffield cannot co-exist on the same team. Not happening. They HATE each other. They probably couldn’t live in the same state at this point, let alone the same clubhouse. Sheffield was linked to the BALCO investigation via hanging out with Bonds and his trainer (and probably receiving illegal supplements). And Sheffield blames his knee problems on Bonds over-working him one off-season. Yes it seems they had a strange relationship for two rich 35+ year old famous athletes, but who am I to judge. It did, however, prove to be great comedy as Sheffield gets quoted as saying he didn’t take steroids because “they are something you shoot in your butt.”

What’s next? Maybe Detroit turns Sheffield into starting pitching or prospects, though I’m sure they’d have to eat a lot of his contract. And would you really want to trade Sheffield to another AL team (only place he can play) to run into him later this year? This really seems like a large amount of obstacles to overcome.

i’ll try to get more specific this time:

Pitching:

The strikeout rate is very disappointing so far, considering how many power pitchers we have (Robertson, Verlander, Bonderman). Pitching seems to be trending up as a whole. Right now we do not have the pitching to win a playoff series. If Dontrelle Willis is as bad as he looks, he’s our version of Barry Zito. Not sure where we can stash him. Overall, this is a huge concern.

Relief Pitching:

The trade of Jason Grilli, the emergence of Denny Bautista (though slightly wild), and the unexpected contributions from Clay Rapida has stabilized the bullpen. And this is before Cruceta, Rodney, or even Zumaya return. I don’t think we can expect Rodney to be fully available for the rest of the year… maybe more of a “month on, month off” type thing. Todd Jones has been excellent. Zach Miner _hopefully_ is over his bout of shitty-ness that Grilli rubbed off on him. Bobby Seay is solid once again.

Pitching overall:

Hard to really quantify, since they looked really bad against the AL Central and pretty solid against bad teams. Amazing what Toronto and Texas will do for you.

Fielding:

Cabrera seems to have settled in at first; maybe he has realized that as a first baseman, he can eat as much as he wants to. Not sure yet what to expect with Guillen at third — the media is all over about how bad he might be; yet this is a guy who was our starting short stop last year. Make up your minds. Renteria seems solid; Polanco had some early trouble. In the outfield, the Jacque Jones defensive pulls scare me — I thought this guy was supposed to be good in left field. I can’t see this just as a way to get more innings for Ryan Raburn. Ordonez and Thames are unspectacular; Inge seems decent in center, and Granderson hasn’t been tested since his return. Pudge seems solid yet again.

Fielding overall:

Bonderman has definitely been victimized by a bad defense, but those days are hopefully over. I think the corner switch was a good one. Pudge seems to be playing too much, and it makes evaluating Inge behind the plate difficult.

Hitting:

Renteria has been a bright light; he has no history of success in the american league, but is currently hitting over .300 from the 8th hole. Ordonez continues to impress, but Cabrera nullifies a lot of it with double plays. Cabrera has been solid but unspectacular in his “super-star hitting” role. He should warm up. Guillen is knocking the piss out of the ball, so much that he almost pulls a hamstring every time rounding first. Granderson missed most of the month but looks strong. Pudge is equally as likely to go 4-5 one game and then 0-5 the next two. Polanco and Sheffield are having sub-par seasons but have missed time due to injury. Overall lack of power from this group is surprising. Jacque Jones started off slow last year as well, but not sure if Detroit is willing to let him take four months to get it together.

Bench:

Thames has a low average but continues to show power in a limited role. His playing days at first are probably over at this point. Inge started hot but is slowly moving down to his career numbers. Raburn is having a similar year as last year with limited at bats; again his defensive innings are surprising. The biggest surprise here is Ramon Santiago — hitting well enough to get some more spot starts as Leyland rests the players. Clete Thomas showed some promise while filling in for Granderson — not sure if we’ll see him again this year or not. The group has done a great job overall — solid defensive replacements who can hit for power.

Coaching / Front Office:

Early on I thought it was clearly evident that Leyland didn’t trust his bullpen. His moves seem much more logical at this point. He seems to be playing his players at the proper time and resting them (sans Pudge) correctly. I think Dombrowski made a killing getting someone (ANYONE) for Jason Grilli. As a whole, someone made the right call bringing up Galarraga — what a surprise, even if it doesn’t last. They needed him to get over the hump that was an 0-7 start. They may have made a mistake in Willis and Robertson’s extensions, and will have to make a decision on Jacque Jones soon. Probably a mistake was made by not assigning Sheffield to a rehab assignment in Toledo — though he may not have accepted it. As indicated last year, the team seems to struggle with Sheffield. Leave Granderson out for most of the month, maybe they needed some other hitters to help out for a week or two.

Overall thoughts:

It was the tale of two half-months. Shitty and Solid. You can’t ignore the first half, but you knew the team would start to hit. Now, the team is starting to excite. They are two games out of the division lead, but so is Cleveland, who has not played well either. The starting pitching is a concern, as is the overall team speed. The big hitters are very stationary, and we probably have too many DH type hitters (all right handed at that). Jacque Jones has been an utter disappointment while Edgar Renteria has been a surprise. We’ll have to re-evaluate after May 31, with some really tough games against good teams coming up. To truly contend, a move to get another starting pitcher might have to be made. If Willis can’t find the strike zone, they will have to either eat his contract or find a trade partner (and still eat his contract) to run out enough quality starts to get into the post season. I imagine the hitting and slugging will improve with the weather; there is a concern over how right-handed this team is. Jones wouldn’t be on the team if he wasn’t left handed, and i’m not sure Clete Thomas is the answer either. One more game tonight against the Yankees would lead to a series sweep… another step in the right directly.

What do we know so far?  Part one, the generic version:

Starting Pitching:

Starting pitching has been average to bad.  Our best pitcher is a Texas Ranger reject.  The left-hander that we grabbed with our prize off-season acquisition and signed to a big extension can’t find the strike zone.  The ace of the staff has not been sharp.  The left-handed eatings eater has been eaten.  The 43 year old left hander is pitching like a 43 year old pitcher.  And Bonderman continues to be average.

Relief pitching:

Better then expected.  Reinforcements from Toledo have helped;  Denny Bautista has been better than advertised.  Todd Jones is Todd Jones.  Rodney can’t find the field.  Grilli was awful and got traded.  Zach Miner has improved.  Bullpen seems to be coming together.

Fielding:

Work in progress.  Corner infielders have switched.  Star third baseman can’t actually play third base and is now a first basemen.  Star shortstop gets moved to first, can’t play first, and now at third.  Second base has first errors in over a year, probably due to an injury.  Backup infielders are above average.

Hitting:

Heating up with the weather.  Hurt by injuries to star center fielder.  Hurt by injuries to star DH.  Hurt by Injuries to star second baseman.  Hurt by having to play Brandon Inge every day.  Not as much power as expected.  Team hits into too many double plays.  Team has little speed.

Coaching:

Hurt by limited hitting and injuries to star players.  Probably kept starters in too long to begin the season.  Limited flexibility due to too many DH type players and very few players with minor league options.  I have a concern that many of the starting pitchers are having mechanics problems… seems like something that should have been discussed in spring training.