Tiger Geist

After Detroit limped / roared into the all-star break (losing a series / winning the final game), they sit at 47-47, with 68 games left to play after the break.  Obviously it isn’t a true ‘midway’ point to the season, but its a good time to look at the team, where they hope to be at the end of the season, and how to get there.  I should be spending some time looking into this over the next few days.

Where does Detroit need to be at the end of the season?  I’m guessing in the 95 win range.  Why?  The last 5 AL Central Division leaders averaged 95 wins (well, 94.6) a year:

• 2007: 96 (Cleveland)
• 2006: 96 (Minny)
• 2005: 99 (Chicago)
• 2004: 92 (Minny)
• 2003: 90 (Minny)

Wild card average over the last five years is actually higher, at 95.4, mainly attributed to the loaded AL East teams.

This means Detroit needs to play over .700 ball to go at least 48-20 over the last 68 games.  I hope that the division can beat itself up a little, to help slow down the White Sox and the Twins… winning the division at 90 or 92 wins would obviously be preferred then getting all the way to 95.  The wild card looks tough this year, currently with five other non-division leading teams (Oakland, Texas, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, New York) ahead of Detroit, with two more (Toronto, Baltimore) nipping at their heels.

Just some quick numbers so far into the season:

• After their loss to Oakland on June 6, they were 12 games under .500, at 24-36 (.400 winning percentage).
• Since then, they were 23-11, a .676 winning percentage.
• On a slightly better note, they were 22-8 going into the last series against Minnesota… .733 win percentage.

Other note:

I’m think its kind of a classy move that Illitch is flying Minnesota’s all stars to the game, with Leyland’s suggestion and Gardenhire’s permission.  I hate Cleveland and Chicago’s rosters, but for some reason I don’t resent Minnesota’s players as much.  Probably I’m just amazed that Minnesota can find these studs (Morneau and Mauer via the draft, Joe Nathan via trade with SF) with such a limited payroll.  Though I’m not a fan of Nick Punto;  his name just sounds dirty.