Tiger Geist

Detroit Tigers Thoughts had some great posts here and here, breaking down the value and requirements for Detroit to get a draft pick for losing Pudge in the off-season.  I have no idea how to calculate these things, so we’re going to run with his numbers for this discussion.

The idea of trading Pudge now would be to get some value — the Tigers aren’t looking to shed any salary at the moment.  For a short term player, you would think that a high draft pick in next year’s draft might give more value then a prospect or two that someone like Florida might offer.  So ideally, you keep Pudge for the rest of the year, offer him arbitration, and do ‘the Oakland’ and let him walk.

Here’s the risk:  at $10million (the required arbitration amount), Pudge might take it.  Can you see him making more money next year in the open market, even in a multi-year deal?  Maybe someone is dumb enough to give him $15 million over 3 years, but his bat is declining significantly that Leyland had to give him more time off to help him recover.  Granted he is as durable as ever (more so then the younger Brandon Inge), but i can’t see a team breaking the bank on a 37 year old catcher.  So if you were Pudge, you’d take the $10million, play out the year, and then hope for a smaller two year contract… which, collectively, would be worth more then any three year option he’ll be given in the off-season.  Pudge is sitting at 2578 career hits;  he’ll want to play until he gets 3000.

Another problem is, if Pudge re-signs with Detroit, he becomes a ‘10 and 5′ guy.  He’ll have the ability to veto any trade, whether or not its in his contract.  I don’t know the current contract situation, but it seems you’d like roster flexibility in your 37 year old $10million catcher.

Next… depending on what you do with Brandon Inge, you now have over $16million committed in catcher salaries, on guys who don’t hit that well (taking into account Pudge’s continued decline).

A better situation would be to NOT offer Pudge arbitration, but to sign him to a two year deal for significantly less money.  That is based on what Detroit feels is their catching depth (not looking good for next year, might be looking up overall).  Though I don’t know the market enough to know what Pudge would demand in the open market.  Again, i think they’re going to have to make a decision on what Inge is (utility player, starting catcher, etc) and work the numbers based on position.

A big issue is, as much as you assume Pudge will continue to decline in hitting, he’s still better then Inge.  It would be hard to let him go if you have any chance at the playoffs.  You’d think that Pudge would clear waivers in August, but if the Yankees are hurting with Posada out, he might not clear.

So what’s the verdict?  Hard to tell.  I don’t think it would be wise to hold onto Pudge thinking you’re going to get a draft pick.  I don’t know if its worth trading him for players that don’t have much potential.  If you could get some quality depth, thats a different story.  Could you bundle him and another player (Raburn, Thames, Rodney??) for better prospects?  Maybe an even better move.  My guess is Detroit sits tight.

This either could be very interesting, or it could just be a blip on the fifth starter screen (ala Eddie Bonine)… but Zach Miner’s start last night has to be enouraging for a team looking for starting pitching.  As Nate Robertson has shown he’s not any more then a fifth starter, and without holding out too much hope for an unknown (Galarraga) or a 40+ year old (kenny rogers), a ‘miner’ resurrgence could really help the team.  I don’t think they have any assets to trade for a solid starting pitcher — Joe Blanton is nice and cheap, but how much of an upgrade would he have been?

So, nearly a week after the all-star break, and Detroit has picked up 1.5 games on the division lead.  Yesterday’s beating on the Royals creates a good feeling deep down, but they have to dominate KC for the rest of the year in order to have a chance.

Matt Joyce continues to impress, as does Sheffield when they limit his at-bats.  This rotation might work out pretty well in Leyland’s favor:  he can continue to rest the older players and still get the lefty / righty matchups that he prefers.

One start does not a career make, but if Miner turns out to be a solid rotation guy, would this be another blunder in Detroit’s coaching this year (keeping him in the bullpen forever)?  Up there with “letting Gary Sheffield play in the field”, or “letting Gary Sheffield play when he’s hurt because he wants to”, or “allowing Jason Grilli to ever pitch for this team”?  I understand Leyland liking the sinkerball for more ground outs (and i’ve questioned this before), but it does seem that Miner does not excel in situations that involve him coming in to clean up another pitcher’s mess.

Freddy Dolsi has had some trouble lately, and that is a concern if Fernando Rodney really is on the trading block.