Tiger Geist

After Detroit limped / roared into the all-star break (losing a series / winning the final game), they sit at 47-47, with 68 games left to play after the break.  Obviously it isn’t a true ‘midway’ point to the season, but its a good time to look at the team, where they hope to be at the end of the season, and how to get there.  I should be spending some time looking into this over the next few days.

Where does Detroit need to be at the end of the season?  I’m guessing in the 95 win range.  Why?  The last 5 AL Central Division leaders averaged 95 wins (well, 94.6) a year:

• 2007: 96 (Cleveland)
• 2006: 96 (Minny)
• 2005: 99 (Chicago)
• 2004: 92 (Minny)
• 2003: 90 (Minny)

Wild card average over the last five years is actually higher, at 95.4, mainly attributed to the loaded AL East teams.

This means Detroit needs to play over .700 ball to go at least 48-20 over the last 68 games.  I hope that the division can beat itself up a little, to help slow down the White Sox and the Twins… winning the division at 90 or 92 wins would obviously be preferred then getting all the way to 95.  The wild card looks tough this year, currently with five other non-division leading teams (Oakland, Texas, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, New York) ahead of Detroit, with two more (Toronto, Baltimore) nipping at their heels.

Just some quick numbers so far into the season:

• After their loss to Oakland on June 6, they were 12 games under .500, at 24-36 (.400 winning percentage).
• Since then, they were 23-11, a .676 winning percentage.
• On a slightly better note, they were 22-8 going into the last series against Minnesota… .733 win percentage.

Other note:

I’m think its kind of a classy move that Illitch is flying Minnesota’s all stars to the game, with Leyland’s suggestion and Gardenhire’s permission.  I hate Cleveland and Chicago’s rosters, but for some reason I don’t resent Minnesota’s players as much.  Probably I’m just amazed that Minnesota can find these studs (Morneau and Mauer via the draft, Joe Nathan via trade with SF) with such a limited payroll.  Though I’m not a fan of Nick Punto;  his name just sounds dirty.

Not the nostalgic type, I’m not heartbroken by the loss of Tiger Stadium.  Sad?  Eh.  People are crazy so i’m not surprised that people are crying about the stadium.  And while I understand the idea of saving the field and creating a memorial field… actually no, i don’t understand that either.  And for $12 to $15 million?  MILLION?  Ouch.  Good luck with that.

Listen, I’ve had good times at the Stadium.  I’ve also had good times at Mandalay Bay Casino, and i won’t be shedding any tears when they implode that beast.  Actually I’ve had better time at Mandalay.  But thats another story.

I’ve re-written this post 4 times already.  I think it comes down to this:  After arguing with plenty of family and friends over the last 10 years, I’ve come to the conclusion that the city of Detroit is a few different things… what it is, and what people want it to be.  Many people confuse “What it is” with “What they want it to be”.  The exact same principle can be applied with Tiger Stadium.  “what they want it to be” is a historic landmark where people have a lot of memories, that will provide a place for people to come and visit, maybe have baseball leagues.  “What it is” is a historic landmark that has a lot of memories that happens to be in the middle of nowhere in a city that has an increasing amount of middle of nowheres.

Where I see a tiger stadium memorial field ‘going’?  A field in a blah part of town in a city that doesn’t have money to support it (or support for the roads in and out of it), that will depend on people driving great distances to use it… people that have better facilities closer to home.  That’s my reality.. the lager house crowd isn’t playing American Legion baseball.  But its your right to donate to the fund that needs $12 to $15million… especially if you think the best use of $12 to $15million in Detroit would be to a baseball field in corktown.

UPDATE:  I just read the plan.. located at http://www.savetigerstadium.org/the_plan.htm.  I had listened to the detroit tigers podcast interview a few months ago on this… and after reading the plan… wow.  Its worse then i thought.  Yes, corktown has grown significantly since 1999.  That’s impressive?  How has it grown?  By a few sports memorabilia shops, a sports bar, and a restaurant (one that i’m proud to say I puked in the afternoon after my 30th birthday) that had revenue higher then expectations?  Because they’re building condos that won’t sell? (Note to the group:  Its a bad time to mention real estate).  Alright, you got me.  Due to the success of one year of slow’s BBQ, this obviously is a great idea.  Man this is worse then I ever feared.

A re-imagined and redeveloped Tiger Stadium will go a
long way toward filling the housing, retail and recreational needs of this growing and vibrant
population.

Woo-Hoo!  $10 that the person writing that lives in Oakland County (yes I’m from there).  Know what would also help?  Jobs.  Roads.  Public transportation.  Grocery Stores.  Security.  A technologically advanced automaker.  A non-corrupt Mayor.  A decent school sytem.  OH.. OH.. and a redeveloped Tiger Stadium.

Good Times.

As pissy as Jimmy Leyland seems to be over the all star schedule, apparently no one mentioned to Detroit that the series against the Indians was over, and in fact the Minnesota Twins were their opponent yesterday afternoon.  It was a bizarre 1pm EST game (which I love, since i can listen to it at work), and that would help explain the bullpen’s lackadaisical approach to closing out the game, or the offense taking the second half of the game off.

Hard to fault the youngsters for failing to produce (rough ninth inning for Matt Joyce, tough batting for Joyce and Larish late in the game) but they played as well as you can expect rookies to play.  The closer needs to close out the game, and letting the first two men you face reach base, especially the number EIGHT AND NINE HITTERS, is inexcusable.  But thats what we get with Todd Jones.

Thoughts:

• Bobby Seay really seems to be hot or cold.  Ninth inning, brought in to face a left hander, and he walks him on four straight pitches?
• Morneau is a machine.  He was followed by Mike Lamb, and apologies to Mike Lamb, but someone i’ve never heard of.  One out, their best hitter at the plate… maybe you walk Morneau (either intentionally or just don’t give him anything to hit) and take your chances with the guy hitting .224.  Hindsight obviously, but who else in Minny’s lineup would you think was going to hit a game winning home run?
• Haven’t read anything about it, but anyone else a little suprised that Rayburns gets an at-bat at the DH position in the bottom of the 11th?  Isn’t there another right handed batter that makes $13million somewhere on the bench?  Name starts with ‘G’… ends with ‘ary Sheffield’?  You’ve already lost Rayburn as a fielding replacement, what were you holding back for Sheffield?

Detroit swept a beaten down Cleveland team in a short series this week.  Today’s game probably really pissed Cleveland off… and another game that Detroit would have lost in May.  Big hits all around;  maybe Renteria is regaining his long lost stroke.

Looks like the Eddie Bonine era is over.  I had thoughts before the game that this was a make it or break it start for him, but i doubt he’s back with this team this year.  It seems that Detroit has to have someone on one of its rosters that puts the team in a better position to win.  However, the logical move was to bring up Inge (from injury rehab, sending down Sardinha) and Zach Miner.  Bringing up Larish for a short stint is probably indictive of Miguel Cabrera’s lower body status (legs, hips).  It doesn’t make much sense to have him sit on the bench instead of getting at-bats in Toledo.  Maybe Leyland will go with a rotating DH to keep Sheffield fresh, or maybe Larish gets a few starts to rest Cabrera and keep Thames from playing first.  Maybe.. Detroit is sending Bonine down to get more work before his next start.  My guess is he’s done.

Cabrera is raking it… finally.  And Thames continues to give me the big F-U with a solid lead-off pinch hit single to start the ninth.  Granted, the team is on a roll lately, and could easily fizzle out in mid August.  But with the flexibility that the young players are giving Leyland (speed and defense at multiple positions, left and right handed options), and given how Thames is reacting to more playing time… I can’t see how the team goes into 2009 with a full time DH.  I’m not sure how they go into 2009 with Inge as a full time catcher, though I think he’s quite capable — without his flexibility they would be in a bad place.  I see Jeff Larish learning third base and the outfield in winter ball…

Slight joke there.. but good news (in terms of his physical health) of Dontrelle Willis:  Knee tendinitis.  So much for the internet reports about torn ACLs, scathing discussions of the Tiger medical staff, etc.

I don’t see Dontrelle pitching in Detroit this year.  If we’re in the playoff race, it means our fifth starter (whomever it might be at the time) is average to solid, and they won’t risk it by putting Willis in a meaningful game.  He hasn’t pitched well in a year (though his control was considerably better last year), there are rumors of his arm’s health and lack of production last year… I can’t see him turning it around in just two months.  He does throw hard enough that you’re going to either kill his psyche or the opposing batter if you aren’t positive about his ability to pitch at the major league level.

I imagine Detroit has to evaluate how to handle his mechanics, or just ignore them.  They’re at a point where they really have no idea why he’s throwing the way he does, and apparently Dontrelle doesn’t either.  Think of how Verlander was handled earlier this year:  the coaches noticed an arm slot issue, and bam, he gains a few mph and is more consistent.  Every report on Willis has the coaches saying “eh… he’s… unorthodox”.  If they can’t find some common ground for him… could we go through this wildness, in some aspect, every year?

I hate the all-star game and the whole selection process.  I remember watching the game as a kid, and one lone representitive (or maybe a couple in the glory years) from Detroit would make the team.  Then they wouldn’t play, only to maybe pinch-run for a player and stand on second base for a few minutes.  Nothing really exciting.

Last year, Detroit sent a couple of players to the game, and a few of them were never the same.  Bonderman went 9-1 into the break, and then pitched on a sore elbow before being shut down.  I shuttered at the thought that Galarraga might be our lone representitive… now THAT would just make the team look rediculous.  My thoughts this year?  Let everyone go home for three days and rest.  Give the pitchers some extra rest.  Let the hitters get their mind off of things.  Let the sore legs heal a little, go into the majority of the second half of the season with a renewed focus.

Off day thoughts:

Road trip — Would have been nice to go 4-3 on the road trip, but 3-4 isn’t horrible.  That last game in Seattle was a fluke, but it would have been MORE of a fluke if they lost.  Its a game that, were it May, I’d have felt we would have lost.

Edgar Renteria — Shitsville, population Renteria.  He’s the current whipping boy on the team I guess.  Rumor has AJ Burnett available in Toronto, with a shortstop wanted in return.  I imagine Detroit pulls the trigger in a heart beat, but I can’t imagine someone like Renteria is what Toronto had in mind.  It will be interesting to see where Mike Hollimon plays in Toledo upon Ramon Santiago’s return to Detroit — he’s played almost entirely second base all year.  If Hollimon starts getting some playing time at short, then Renteria could be on the move — either to another team or to the bench.  Worse, its unclear if there is a replacement in the system for next year.

Trades — does the team look to move anyone?  Can the team think its going to to the playoffs with Eddie Bonine as a starter and getting no production out of the shortstop position (either offensively or defensively)?  What happens if Detroit feels that they’re stuck with Renteria, and that he and Gary Sheffield won’t get hot?  I wonder if they could place a pitcher on the market and try to get some prospects — Nate Robertson may get a look, but with his contract and 3-5 starter range he probably isn’t worth much.  Kenny Rogers is pitching quite well, and with no money owed going into next year.  Would Detroit try to match Cleveland and start gearing up for ‘09?  Teams are looking for pitching, and the top talent is available for a king’s ransome.  Maybe that makes the lesser products with playoff experience more desireable…

Backup Pitcher — The whole situation in Seattle last night makes me laugh, having to use a backup catcher due to a shortened bullpen.  Question:  In terms of a healthy Detroit squad of regulars, who is most likely to pitch for them in the same situation?  Brandon Inge?  One of their strong armed outfielders (though they’re most likely to throw their arms out)?  Could they go with Eddie Bonine and only ask him to throw knuckle balls, assuming he was throwing on short rest?  For some reason, don’t know why, I feel that Ramon Santiago could make it work.

Jimmy Leyland dropped the bomb yesterday by stating that he could see Joel Zumaya starting in a few years.  This debate started last year, and had everyone weighing in.  Todd Jones says he sees Zumaya as a closer (though this year he said he also sees Freddy Dolsi as a closer).  Zumaya has said he likes either, but felt he had the mentality to be a closer.

Joba Chamberlain is moving from the bullpen to the starting rotation, and generating tons of headlines.  Personally, I think Chamberlain is over-hyped because he’s in New York.  But what really should be a story is Justin Duchscherer of Oakland.  He was an all-star as a reliever (yes all-star pitchers are often chosen at random), but has moved into the rotation this year at age 30 and is having a fantastic year.  I’d take those type of numbers.

I have no idea why Leyland talked about it yesterday;  he must have been asked by a reporter.  But if you look at Detroit’s draft this year, they drafted a bunch of college power armed relievers.  Some of these picks (including their first rounder Ryan Perry) has had much success in the bullpen, but have gotten knocked around as starters.  Their immediate future is out of the pen;  they’ve played college ball, which has a shorter lead time to the majors, and detroit isn’t exactly flush with starting talent.

All of this leads to the inevitable:  If Zumaya is one of their best five starting pitchers, and if they have enough talent in the system to re-vamp the bullpen, they Detroit will look at Zumaya to start.  Leyland says it would be “down the road”, which gives them plenty of time to change their mind.  But the announcement (if you can call it that) shouldn’t be surprising.

Seattle Tidbits:

• Todd Jones has had a rough week or two.
• Its scary to think that right now, our best shutdown reliever is… Fernando Rodney.
• Zumaya isn’t allowing many runs, but he isn’t unhittable.
• The kids were huge in game one;  Hollimon getting his first home run.  Interesting stat:  Edgar Renteria’s lefty / righty batting average splits:  .344 / .247.  I’m sure Leyland wanted to get Renteria some rest, but sitting him against right handers makes a lot of sense.  Hollimon, a switch hitter, gives some added flexibility, though he’s not dominant in the field.
• Dane Sardinha looks to get one to two starts this weekend.  I imagine he’ll get the start today, with the veteran Kenny Rogers on the mound.  Give Pudge to Galarraga on Saturday and figure out Sunday — could go with Pudge again with the off-day on Monday.  I like how Pudge responds to his days of rest, so i’d like him to be as fresh as possible going into Cleveland.  Also, both today’s and Sunday’s game is against left handed pitchers, which Detroit hits well, allowing them to ‘hide’ Sardhina at the end of the lineup.

Happy 4th!

Though i guess it doesn’t rain indoors.  A series that Detroit could have easily been swept in, they eek out a 2-1 series loss.  Bonine wasn’t sharp, the team didn’t field particularly well… let’s not worry about this one and move on to Seattle.

Thoughts:

• Detroit was playing without ~$44 million in contracts (Cabrera, Inge, Ordonez, Rodriguez).  Add Bonine who makes Wal-mart wages, and it wasn’t an ideal lineup today.
• To top that, we have what could be described as a fast and very above average outfield (Granderson, Joyce, Thomas, Raburn).  But in the metrodome, our below average infield hurts.  Badly.
• Ramon Santiago is rehabbing in Toledo.  The lack of offensive production at shortstop, coupled by the decrease in range, makes me worried about Renteria and Detroit as a whole.  .270 and five home runs was not what we traded solid prospects for.  I wonder if the Tigers need to make a move, or play Santiago more when he returns.  In terms of the team, the only real upgrade they could make right now is at shortstop.  I think Renteria is playing his last season in Detroit;  I wonder if he’s playing his last month as well.
• Honestly… winning a game and losing two (with one loss being close)… when you throw out names like Galarraga, Robertson, and Bonine… can you really be upset?

Seattle is up.  They’re not playing well, Detroit has been slightly cooled… go Tigers.

Nothing earth shattering about last night’s win… but its a game we would have lost in April.  Or May.  Or even part of June.  I don’t think its forshadowing “things to come”, but I think it shows Detroit is not done.  Thats good news for fans.

Miguel Cabrera’s health is bad news.  I guess if he was to get injured, now’s the time to rest up with the all-star break coming.  I was slightly surprised at the move with Thames going to first;  i’m not sure how much work he’s getting in there these days.  I thought Leyland would move Raburn to third and Guillen across the diamond;  Thames is hitting so well that I felt they should keep him in his comfort zone in left (Thames responded to the move with four strikeouts).  I’m interested how they handle this if Cabrera needs more then a day off.

I like how Zumaya gutted out the save.  With Dolsi on his heels, it might be interesting how the closer position is handled next year.

Interesting at-bat for Matt Joyce last night.  The Twins must have known he previously had issues with curveballs and off-speed pitches.  So what happens?  Joyce fouls off two curve balls;  Guerrier misses with two curveballs, and has to throw a full count fastball, which Joyce jumps on.  Good piece of hitting… and probably a poor piece of pitching.  But I’ll take it.