Tiger Geist

Not a huge surprise, with Guillen out a few more days and a fifth starting pitcher not needed until after rosters expand, but Jeff Larish returns to Detroit to help at third (and probably first and DH).  Interesting here that they didn’t call up Mike Hessmen, who is not on the 40 man roster (and probably won’t be, with other players needing to be protected this winter).

Found this pretty interesting… Larish’s college stats at ASU.  Interesting having your name alongside Barry Bonds (always a good thing, as long as it isn’t a federal indictment).

I heard an interview about Bonds going back to his college days.. and it wasn’t pretty.  I’m not sure if the interview related to a book, but a search on amazon.com with “barry bonds was an asshole even in college” didn’t return the desired results.

Now I’m starting to get concerned about next year.  The Chris Lambert Experiment went about as well as I expected — not well.  His miner league numbers aren’t fantastic, at least, nothing that said he would fare well against the hot Indians.  But whatever, I didn’t watch the game, maybe those home runs weren’t so bad.  Maybe not lasting four innings is acceptable, given the defense behind him.  Given the situation, maybe Leyland should have given Lambert better surroundings (Inge at third, Rayburn in left, a more comfortable catcher who he’s worked with before in Sardinha)… Who knows.

Other concerns I have:

• Marcus Thames is starting to show how he would be a good DH and part time outfielder, not the other way around.
• Gary Sheffield will be on the 2009 Detroit Tigers
• Our starting rotation in 2010 might be very good.  Not helping 2009, however.
• Joel Zumaya might have to be a starter in 2009.
• Carlos Guillen’s knees might not be the only body part failing him
• Toledo’s stars are in a giant slump (Thomas, Larish, Clevlen)
• The only way to make multiple improvements to this team is to trade Ordonez;  I’m not sure if we could get enough for him to make it worthwhile
• I’m fearful of the player Ordonez and Guillen will be in the last year or two of their contracts.  If overall team defense was an issue this year… they can’t all DH.  And I’m not sure Guillen will hit well enough to DH either, if he doesn’t slow his physical decline.

Concerns I don’t have:

• Extending the contract of Polanco by another year or two.  He’s awesome.
• Cabrera.  Though I’d love him to lose 20 pounds.
• Kenny Rogers.  He really has no trade value, and its not like we have another pitcher to take his place for his last 4 or 5 starts.  Let him finish out his career as a Tiger.  Someone mentioned New York as a possible destination for him for September — after his 1996 and 97 seasons there, which he seemed to dislike, i can’t imagine that happening.

Concerns I’m on the fence about:

• Nate Robertson.  I think he sucks; he’s always sucked.  But I’m undecided if i think he can return to his mediocre-ness or not.
• Brandon Inge.  He’s playing like poop as a catcher.  He’s hitting like poop all year.  I’m not sure if he’s a ‘game changer’ at third or not.  He’s regressed so much in his hitting that his contract is really hard to swallow.
• Bullpen.  Don’t really care at this point.  I think most of it will be revamped by the middle of next year, with a combo of a free agent or two, and some youth infusion (Rapada, Fien, 2008 draft choices).
• Translating minor league numbers into big league production.  Seriously, as excited I get about Jeff Larish or Clete Thomas… why?  Hitting .250 in Toledo doesn’t mean they’ll hit .275 in part time play next year.  I think Clevlen has the potential to have Matt Joyce type impact.  I’m hoping Larish can play third as a backup as well (good news on the Arizona fall league news).
• Matt Joyce.  It seems like many teams have prospects come up to have a major impact (and he has been one of Detroits top 10 players this year in my mind), only to come back to earth in May of the following year.  As well as he’s hit, there is a chance he has a minor league return next year.  Hoping it doesn’t happen  (see Francoeur, Jeff)

In a move that was probably two months overdue, Nate Robertson got demoted to the bullpen to work on his $7million slider.  I caught Wednesday’s game on XM, which carried the Ranger’s broadcast crew — before the game started they were discussing just how bad Nate is.

No one knows who will replace Robertson; my thought is Casey Fossum.  There is only one scheduled start for that slot before rosters expand, and they probably won’t make a move if they don’t have to.  Long shot is Aquilino Lopez, who I believe has pitched himself off of the 2009 roster.

In other news, Gary Glover, who joined the team recently, has pitched rather well.  Not putting too much hope into this one, but he’s pitched 3 times ( for 1, 1.1, and 1.1 innings each), all in wins.  Last night was the first time he gave up a hit (two, including a run).  No walks.  Zip.  Zero.

Other thoughts:

• My attempt to become a rock star and travel for my job has resulted in… not being a rock star.  I’ve also had less time to post to the blog.  My ultimate dream would be to either DH or pitch for the Tigers.  Apparently stats are not an issue to DH, and I don’t have much of a slider either.
• The five home runs given up by Robertson was expected;  he hasn’t had his slider all year.  Why didn’t they make this move in June?  Then maybe they could have gotten a better year out of him.
• With Tampa holding their lead over Boston and New York, there is less of a chance Sheffield is dealt.  I will continue to dream for this trade, however.

Rightfully so, there’s some question about why Gary (who?) Glover was called up from Toledo, after recently being signed after he was dropped by Tampa.  There seems to be more qualified candidates available (Rapada, Fien, even Cruceta) who probably deserve a promotion (or at least a shot);  I mean, they can’t be any worse then the slop being thrown out there at the moment.  I didn’t quite understand it, but after reading this quote by Leyland it might make more sense (on Glover):

“This is kind of a trial-and-error thing for him and us, and we’re glad to have him,” Leyland said.

Its pretty obvious we’re out of contention right now, and we’re going to struggle to end even .500.  I’m starting to have thoughts on what went wrong in 2008 and how to improve those in 2009.  The next month and a half could help Detroit figure out some of the position battles.  The daily fungo has 17 questions out already, so it looks like many fans are looking towards next year (or just being more realistic about 2008).

Issue #1)  Pitching

I really don’t want to touch pitching.  Not much went right, and too much is undecided in mid-august.  Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman had unexpected 2008 years.  Kenny Rogers was too inconsistent and won’t be back (though probably retiring).  The bullpen was a disaster, but we knew that going into the year.  We don’t know what we have with Rodney and Zumaya for 2009, so I’m going to leave pitching alone until we get closer to February 2009.

Issue #2) Age

Edgar Renteria declined faster then the team believed he would.  I have a feeling Carlos Guillen is on a simlar downturn.  More worrisome, Renteria, Guillen and Placido Polanco are the same age.  Worse — Magglio Ordonez is 6 months older then all of them.  Going into the season, Pudge & Sheffield had a combined age of 448 years;  Pudge is gone.  The issue with age leads into declining skills on players with some significant contracts (Ordonez, Guillen, Sheffield).  It takes us to two more areas — health and roster flexibility.

How to fix Issue #2:

Renteria will be gone;  I don’t know who will play here, but he’s too expensive and too much of a liability (offensively and defensively) to come back.  Guillen’s contract means he’ll have to stick around for at least another year, if not too.  Polanco hasn’t shown any decline (either in the field or at the plate), but his contract status will have to bear watching.  Magglio worries me — I think he’ll be fine next year, and then slide to a more permanent role as a DH in 2010.  That brings around another Sheffield-type situation, so you wonder if Detroit will look to move Magglio and build around Miguel Cabrera.

Issue #3) Health

Detroit is NOT a second half team in the Jim Leyland Era;  I don’t know for sure, but I feel some of this decline could be helped by better team/time management in the early part of the year.  With an aging team, he needs to do a better job of giving time off during the year to help make a run at the end, or to stay in front of the pack.  I look at the slight re-surgence Pudge was able to give when he wasn’t playing every day; I wonder if Guillen could benefit from this in 2009 as well.  I also worry that by carrying a full-time DH with an aging team is putting too many eggs in one basket — When a player has to sit out for whatever reason for 3 - 5 games (as Guillen had to do twice this year, one for his wife, one for an injury) the team is really in a bind.  This leads us to Roster flexibility.

How to fix #3:

Not much you can do without getting younger and having more versatile players.  Another reason why keeping Sheffield is a bad idea.

Issue #4) Roster flexibility

Two areas they need to address here:  a very right handed team, and a full time DH.  The DH can be used to give players a day off in the field, or to keep a bat in the lineup when the player can’t field due to injury (as Guillen used early this year).  Matt Joyce helped with a power left handed bat as the year went on, but they need to address this going into 2009.

How to fix #4:

Skipping the obvious DH issue, the thought of Jeff Larish backing up first, third and a power left handed DH spot makes him a lot more desireable then Mike Hessman (though Hessman I believe will be a free agent after the season so he’s probably gone).  They’re going to have to figure out some backup system between short and second — could go with Ramon Santiago for another year, and then a Mike Hollimon-type player (either from their minor affiliates or a free agent).  Luckily, their top outfield prospects are all outstanding defensive players, giving them depth in all three positions.

Players on the bubble due to #4:  Marcus Thames, Gary Sheffield, Magglio Ordonez, Ryan Raburn.

Other thoughts:

• I wonder what kind of monster Cabrera could be at 220 pounds.  It probably will never happen, but could he be the best hitter in baseball if he continued to dedicate himself?
• I imagine the minor league talent level won’t be touched this winter.  Only if the team doesn’t see a roster spot for a Larish/Clevlen/Clete Thomas.
• A roster spot for Clete Thomas might be hard to find.  Matt Joyce pulled a fast one on him by out-slugging him by a mile.
• Curtis Granderson is a very good player.  I thought 2008 was the year he became an elite player.  Will it happen in 2009?
• I have no idea who will start at short stop or catcher in 2009.  For some reason I think Inge hasn’t helped himself since the Pudge trade.  I wonder if they could wrestle Bengie Molina away from SF for a year — owed $6mil next year in the last year of his deal.

Todd Jones and Nate Robertson decided to put on their own show while Michael Phelps tied Mark Spitz’s Olympic record (not sure why, but Spitz talked to Bob Costas and Phelps via satellite from Detroit…)

If this is what a healthy Todd Jones gives you, its going to be a terrible end to his career (oh, and thanks for helping my dreams of shipping you and Sheff off to Tampa…).  We all know that this is what Nate Robertson gives you.

I think its officially 2009 discussion time.  I’m hoping to break down the position players and thoughts;  Honestly, i have no idea how the pitching will work its way out, and no one will probably know until some moves are made this winter, and to see how the 2008 draft choices work out this winter and next spring.

Buster Olney reports that Tampa Bay has another problem:  Troy Percival sprained his knee.

He writes here how Tampa may again be looking at Sheffield, though they really don’t want him.  And they have some pitching in the minors that Detroit might want.  Here’s an idea:  Give them Sheffield and Todd Jones (assuming Jones already cleared waivers).  Offer to pay all of their salary for this year, and at least half of Sheffield’s salary for next year.

Again, I think the distraction that Sheffield will provide next year will be a huge burden for a team with a lot to prove.  They won’t eat all of his contract, but if they can get rid of him, open up a roster spot AND get something in return, pull the trigger.  Don’t just pull the trigger — fly to Tampa and take out their GM and convince him how awesome the trade is.  Run don’t walk.
I’ve read an article that the Tampa GM earlier this year stated that they know they don’t have the cash reserves to make a run every year, they need to bulk up, make a run, and then lay low again for a few years until their time comes around again.  Well, no time like the present.  Maybe we can throw in another prospect to sweeten the deal.  Think about it — how great would it be just to see Tampa beat out both the Red Sox and Yankees for the division?  And it rids Detroit of some of their dirty laundry?  Win-win.

Alright, they’re not very good this year.  They might struggle to win 85 games.  The only current highlight is the late inning victory against Toronto, and the attempted surge two nights ago (to lose 4-3).  Why does it matter?  At least it feels that the team hasn’t quit.  They just might not be very good.

Not much to write about lately;  the season’s over and I try not to get too upset about ANOTHER blown save, or how the offense isn’t clicking, or how Leyland waited too long to make a change (moving Cabrera to the 4 spot, moving Miner to the rotation, etc).  Instead I’ve watched my wife go ape shit over Michael Phelps for the last week.  Its much more interesting.  Do you want someone to talk with about how awesome Phelps’ abs are?  Drop my wife a line.

Onto the Tigers… Gary Sheffield worries me.  He’s spouting off about his playing time, his role with the team, whatever.  I don’t know if he’s done (he’s probably not hitting 30 home runs next year even if he is healthy), or if he’s just being a baby.  I do know that every time he goes into a contract year, he starts making noise.  That’s why Detroit had to sign him to an extension as they traded for him — to keep him quiet.  New York had similar problems;  he seems to enjoy having a contract with a few years on it to feel ‘respected’.  I don’t see Detroit dumping him this year or this offseason just to eat his contract (though I think they should), but I fear the distraction going into spring training unless suddenly, at age 39, Sheffield learns to keep quiet.  If Tampa Bay, the team that makes the most sense to bring in Sheffield, doesn’t want him — who else would?

Barring a major collapse by both Minnesota and Chicago, Detroit’s basically out of contention.  But now they have to figure out what to do about next year — who will be able to step in.  Because they can’t go into the spring with this team intact, its already proven it won’t work.  Granted, injuries to Bonderman, etc haven’t helped.  But the 2009 Tigers have more question marks then the 2008 team did.

Another fear:  What if Justin Verlander is the new version of Jeremy Bonderman?  Started off great, great stuff, but just never puts it together?  From a Jason Stark article, quotes from a scout on Verlander:

Justin Verlander — “His stuff is now a grade below what it was. He’s become a two-seam sinkerball pitcher. Where’s the front-door hammer [curveball]? Where’s that four-seam fastball he used to bang guys away with? I’m not seeing it. I’m seeing a lot of contact, and the hitters look way too comfortable.”

Is the strain of pitching the entire year catching up to the still relatively young pitcher?  Its easy to blame the pitching coaches for not doing their best, but what is going on with Detroit’s pitchers this year?  Besides Gallaraga, have any of them progressed this year?  Dolsi showed a lot of promise, only to quickly fade.  Rodney & Zumaya’s problems I still think stem from a lack of spring training and trying to come back too fast (Rodney has had so many mechanical problems that I really think he was rushed back too quickly).  Zumaya was an unknown — his injury and resulting surgery had never been done on a pitcher before.  I don’t think anyone knew what they were going to get, or how long it would last.

What has improved seems to be the overall team defense.  Its been written how Thames has improved in the outfield, and the young outfielders all are above average (Granderson, Clete Thomas, Raburn, Matt Joyce, Clevlen) to start with.  But Guillen, Renteria, and Cabrera all improved as the year went on.

Back to Sheffield.  A major problem this year was his inability to play in the field, limiting a team who wasn’t playing well and had some health issues.  Going into next year, will Detroit limit themselves again with an inflexible lineup and roster?  If they must keep Sheff, I imagine Thames will have to go.  Too many DH’s spoil the pot.

Buster Olney chronicles about Tampa’s woes with getting help — Carl Crawford might be done for the season, and Boston is blocking them from waiver claims for other outfielders (notably Brian Giles so far).  If you claim someone at this point, the other team can just let you have the player — and you’re stuck with their contract (notably, an article here by Olney in 2000 on the Yankees / Jose Canseco deal).

Could, in some way, shape or form, Detroit work with Tampa for Sheffield, pray that Boston claims him, and just let them keep him?  That clears room for any other player on the team that feels like hitting over .230, and frees Detroit completely of next year’s contract of $14million.  Is there any chance this could happen?

I recognize that the answer to this is Mr Garrison’s “NO, NO NO NO NO NO NO NO!  YOU GO TO HELL!  YOU GO TO HELL AND YOU DIE!”.  Why?  Because Gary Sheffield isn’t very good.  But a motivated Gary Sheffield may be decent, and maybe playing in Boston or Tampa would re-motivate him.

But a man can dream.  A man can dream of a world where a $14million dollar DH who can’t hit or field and has attitude problems can somehow be desirable to a low-income baseball team in Tampa Bay that needs outfield help for a pennant race.

Right now it appears Michael Phelps has a better shot at 8 gold medals then the Detroit Tigers have of making the playoffs.  7.5 games back in the AL Central; 8.5 back of the AL wild card.

Sitting at 58-59, with the Chicago White Sox looking at 91 victories (currently with their .560 win percentage leading the central).  That means to keep up, Detroit needs ~33 victories (with 12 defeats) over their last 45 games…. a .733 win percentage.  When they can’t sweep the struggling Athletics, its looking dismal.

Sounds like they’re concerned about Thames’ shoulder (I wondered why he wasn’t playing), and dealing with Sheffield’s attitude.  I’m more concerned with Sheffield’s rapid decline of skill.

Dontrelle Willis had a game in Lakeland.. I still think they keep him shut down for the year.  To that point, once rosters expand in September, i think they need to basically shut down Rodney and Zumaya, if both figure into the team for next year.  Thoughts on their performance later.