Tiger Geist

Its pretty obvious we’re out of contention right now, and we’re going to struggle to end even .500.  I’m starting to have thoughts on what went wrong in 2008 and how to improve those in 2009.  The next month and a half could help Detroit figure out some of the position battles.  The daily fungo has 17 questions out already, so it looks like many fans are looking towards next year (or just being more realistic about 2008).

Issue #1)  Pitching

I really don’t want to touch pitching.  Not much went right, and too much is undecided in mid-august.  Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman had unexpected 2008 years.  Kenny Rogers was too inconsistent and won’t be back (though probably retiring).  The bullpen was a disaster, but we knew that going into the year.  We don’t know what we have with Rodney and Zumaya for 2009, so I’m going to leave pitching alone until we get closer to February 2009.

Issue #2) Age

Edgar Renteria declined faster then the team believed he would.  I have a feeling Carlos Guillen is on a simlar downturn.  More worrisome, Renteria, Guillen and Placido Polanco are the same age.  Worse — Magglio Ordonez is 6 months older then all of them.  Going into the season, Pudge & Sheffield had a combined age of 448 years;  Pudge is gone.  The issue with age leads into declining skills on players with some significant contracts (Ordonez, Guillen, Sheffield).  It takes us to two more areas — health and roster flexibility.

How to fix Issue #2:

Renteria will be gone;  I don’t know who will play here, but he’s too expensive and too much of a liability (offensively and defensively) to come back.  Guillen’s contract means he’ll have to stick around for at least another year, if not too.  Polanco hasn’t shown any decline (either in the field or at the plate), but his contract status will have to bear watching.  Magglio worries me — I think he’ll be fine next year, and then slide to a more permanent role as a DH in 2010.  That brings around another Sheffield-type situation, so you wonder if Detroit will look to move Magglio and build around Miguel Cabrera.

Issue #3) Health

Detroit is NOT a second half team in the Jim Leyland Era;  I don’t know for sure, but I feel some of this decline could be helped by better team/time management in the early part of the year.  With an aging team, he needs to do a better job of giving time off during the year to help make a run at the end, or to stay in front of the pack.  I look at the slight re-surgence Pudge was able to give when he wasn’t playing every day; I wonder if Guillen could benefit from this in 2009 as well.  I also worry that by carrying a full-time DH with an aging team is putting too many eggs in one basket — When a player has to sit out for whatever reason for 3 - 5 games (as Guillen had to do twice this year, one for his wife, one for an injury) the team is really in a bind.  This leads us to Roster flexibility.

How to fix #3:

Not much you can do without getting younger and having more versatile players.  Another reason why keeping Sheffield is a bad idea.

Issue #4) Roster flexibility

Two areas they need to address here:  a very right handed team, and a full time DH.  The DH can be used to give players a day off in the field, or to keep a bat in the lineup when the player can’t field due to injury (as Guillen used early this year).  Matt Joyce helped with a power left handed bat as the year went on, but they need to address this going into 2009.

How to fix #4:

Skipping the obvious DH issue, the thought of Jeff Larish backing up first, third and a power left handed DH spot makes him a lot more desireable then Mike Hessman (though Hessman I believe will be a free agent after the season so he’s probably gone).  They’re going to have to figure out some backup system between short and second — could go with Ramon Santiago for another year, and then a Mike Hollimon-type player (either from their minor affiliates or a free agent).  Luckily, their top outfield prospects are all outstanding defensive players, giving them depth in all three positions.

Players on the bubble due to #4:  Marcus Thames, Gary Sheffield, Magglio Ordonez, Ryan Raburn.

Other thoughts:

• I wonder what kind of monster Cabrera could be at 220 pounds.  It probably will never happen, but could he be the best hitter in baseball if he continued to dedicate himself?
• I imagine the minor league talent level won’t be touched this winter.  Only if the team doesn’t see a roster spot for a Larish/Clevlen/Clete Thomas.
• A roster spot for Clete Thomas might be hard to find.  Matt Joyce pulled a fast one on him by out-slugging him by a mile.
• Curtis Granderson is a very good player.  I thought 2008 was the year he became an elite player.  Will it happen in 2009?
• I have no idea who will start at short stop or catcher in 2009.  For some reason I think Inge hasn’t helped himself since the Pudge trade.  I wonder if they could wrestle Bengie Molina away from SF for a year — owed $6mil next year in the last year of his deal.