Tiger Geist

Staring at some numbers from my last post, I took a look at Carlos Guillen’s last five years, all with the Tigers.  He’s had a surprising drop in power in 2008, which makes many very worried about the rest of his contract.  There are a couple of thoughts I have.

1. We’re screwed.  OR
2. He’ll decline slowly (a given), but this year was an anomaly, and / or
3. He’s been hurt more this year then reported

Just a thought, but if you look at his numbers, his 2008 numbers reflect his 2005 numbers more then 2004, 2006 or 2007.  On top of this, he was tearing the cover off of the ball early this year while most of the team struggled (his April 2009 numbers reflected his 2007 season).  What’s important about 2005?  That’s the year he missed significant time due to injury, playing in only 87 games.  His slugging percentage is nearly identical between those two years, a significant dip from the other three years.  Yet his batting average in 2005 stayed at .320, while it has dipped to (currently) .286 in 2008 — which is just about where he’s been since July 6.

I wonder if, by playing third base, he was able to play more games this year then he would have been able to if he was the full time short stop, due to his knees (and now some back / nerve issues).  Maybe the team felt an 80% Guillen was more important to have on the field leading the team then putting him on the shelf for a few weeks.  With what we’ve seen with the how they’ve handled Sheffield (even with Sheffield spouting off about the training staff), this isn’t crazy talk.

My real fear is that a ‘rebound’ year really just means 15 home runs next year, and another .285ish season.  I know he dedicated himself to working out last year, and he’s currently listed at 215 pounds.  I imagine it would be a good idea to drop 10, 15, or even 20 pounds in the off season to keep his knees from taking a pounding (and the back injury isn’t a good sign).  I still think he’s started to break down a little sooner then expected, so maybe some tuning of the off-season routine can keep him on the field longer.

The one shining moment of the remaining Tiger games is that there are so many other distractions to deal with in September.  Between elections, college football, NFL football, fantasy football, off-shore gambling… not too many people will notice the Tigers tanking the rest of the season.

It’ll be interesting how Detroit handles Kenny Rogers’ next scheduled starts.  I can’t see why they would hold him out, but he has what appears to be 4 starts left for the team — two against his old teams (Oakland, Texas) and the last one against Tampa at home in Detroit.  I think its pretty obvious he’s going to retire, so we might as well celebrate his career and stint as a Tiger.  The fans could give him quite a send off if he were to announce his plans before his last start, and it appears it will fall on the last Friday of the season.

On a last note, I’m still torn about the facination with keeping Granderson in the leadoff spot.  Its hard to gauge reaction, but I get the feeling a lot of people think he should stay in the leadoff position.  Leyland says he’ll have to bat leadoff since they don’t have anyone else.  Taking a look, i compared A-Rod’s numbers with Granderson’s.  A-rod has a better batting average, has a higher on base percentage, steals a similar number of bases, and walks more (minus this year, they’re about the same).  My point?  If the Yankee’s leadoff hitter went down with an injury, I don’t see A-rod moving up in the order.  If Granderson is a complete player, he’s a great #3 hitter.

Nice little 9-6 victory Detroit pulled out last night.  The starting pitching was average (not great, but at least they were in the game), the bullpen was average (not great, but at least they were in the game), the defense above average, and they knocked in some runs.
Sounds like Mike Hessman doesn’t suck at third.  I’m starting to get really upset about the Detroit’s lack of production from the DH spot (Sheffield), poor third base defense (Cabrera / Guillen), and lack of power at third (Guillen), while this guy has been sitting in Toledo.  Interesting, two years ago Brandon Inge took a bad average and power numbers with solid third base play into a crazy contract.  Mike Hessman probably gives you the same thing, and for some reason he can’t make a big league club that has played under .500 for most of the year.

Yes, I know Hessman isn’t the solution for a bad year.  But he’d hit like Thames with better defense.  I think Detroit is hoping that Jeff Larish can do the same next year, but like Big Al, I’m not sold on him yet.