Tiger Geist

Staring at some numbers from my last post, I took a look at Carlos Guillen’s last five years, all with the Tigers.  He’s had a surprising drop in power in 2008, which makes many very worried about the rest of his contract.  There are a couple of thoughts I have.

1. We’re screwed.  OR
2. He’ll decline slowly (a given), but this year was an anomaly, and / or
3. He’s been hurt more this year then reported

Just a thought, but if you look at his numbers, his 2008 numbers reflect his 2005 numbers more then 2004, 2006 or 2007.  On top of this, he was tearing the cover off of the ball early this year while most of the team struggled (his April 2009 numbers reflected his 2007 season).  What’s important about 2005?  That’s the year he missed significant time due to injury, playing in only 87 games.  His slugging percentage is nearly identical between those two years, a significant dip from the other three years.  Yet his batting average in 2005 stayed at .320, while it has dipped to (currently) .286 in 2008 — which is just about where he’s been since July 6.

I wonder if, by playing third base, he was able to play more games this year then he would have been able to if he was the full time short stop, due to his knees (and now some back / nerve issues).  Maybe the team felt an 80% Guillen was more important to have on the field leading the team then putting him on the shelf for a few weeks.  With what we’ve seen with the how they’ve handled Sheffield (even with Sheffield spouting off about the training staff), this isn’t crazy talk.

My real fear is that a ‘rebound’ year really just means 15 home runs next year, and another .285ish season.  I know he dedicated himself to working out last year, and he’s currently listed at 215 pounds.  I imagine it would be a good idea to drop 10, 15, or even 20 pounds in the off season to keep his knees from taking a pounding (and the back injury isn’t a good sign).  I still think he’s started to break down a little sooner then expected, so maybe some tuning of the off-season routine can keep him on the field longer.