Tiger Geist

The World Baseball Classic rosters were set.  Big news for Detroit outfield prospects and coaches:  It gives them some time to shine and evaluate.

Carlos Guillen, Curtis Granderson, and Magglio Ordonez — the projected starting outfield — will all be gone.  Perfect.  What are some of Detroit’s biggest (non-pitching-related) questions?

• How do they handle the backup center field slot
• How will Carlos Guillen fit in left
• Can Jeff Larish play in the outfield
• Where does Marcus Thames fit
• Is Brent Clevlen ready to be a major league player
• Can the team drum up trade interest for Clevlen if he doesn’t fit into their plans

So here we go.  Guillen has said he wants to start for Venezuela or he won’t play for them;  now that he’s on the roster and presumably starting, he should see more quality bats to field against.  Also, positioning is key for an outfielder, so playing behind major league caliber starting pitching (vs say a Chris “can we please let Gary Sheffield injure himself, and not help him in this process” Lambert) should be an added boost.

On the prospect point, we all know its make it or break it time for Clevlen.  Now Leyland doesn’t have to figure how to get him more innings, it just naturally just happened.  If he does well, they can decide to keep him, or Brent is doing his part to create value.  I still don’t see Casper Wells making the team out of spring training, but its more of a chance to see him side by side against the same pitching and lineups as Ryan Raburn and Clevlen.  And I still think Thames gets traded, whether it be in March or early April… and that’s assuming perfect health from the projected starting lineup.  Larish will be getting time in the outfield, and how comfortable the coaching staff feels about his play will go a long way in determining his roster spot.

From a fan’s standpoint, i’d rather go to spring training and see the prospects anyway.  I can see the starting lineup when they travel to Oakland (twice this year!  Woohoo!).  Last year I went too late in spring training to see the likes of a Porcello play;  this year its more likely they’ll keep the prospects around longer.

Gerald Laird to Miguel Cabrera, while Cabrera tried to get some wings in against Rick Porcello:

‘don’t look at me, I’m not going to help you hit it.’

Its early and doesn’t mean much.  But its funny.  Joel Zumaya also successfully threw BP without breaking his arm or contracting the clap.  Baby steps.

Again, this may not matter due to injuries.  And there will be significant factors at play, such as how good (or bad) Carlos Guillen looks in left field.  Plus, this is just an early estimate, as the team may only go north with ‘officially’ 11 pitchers, but when the schedule evens out (first week or so) they’ll bring up the fifth starting pitcher or a reliever, etc.  But lets talk about the main team, assuming 12 pitchers are on the roster.

It appears ther are 9 spots locked up:  Laird, Cabrera, Polanco, Everett, Inge, Guillen, Granderson, Ordonez, and Sheffield.  Yes, lets not forget Mr. DH.

Treanor makes the team as the backup catcher (and current claim to hottest wife, though I’m willing to research the pictures of the other wives).  Ramon Santiago most likely will be the backup infielder.  As it stands, Marcus Thames will be the fourth outfielder (and third ‘bench’ player).  That leaves one more.

Conventional wisdom says this last spot will go to either Jeff Larish, Ryan Raburn, or Clete Thomas.  I’m marking Clete off of the list due to his arm injury; Leyland likes him and he’ll be back, possibly as a starter in 2010.  He’ll start in Toledo, rehab, and work on his game a little more.  Raburn is worrisome;  I like him (no idea why), he plays multiple positions, yet last year his offense seemed to suffer in such a role.  Worse, for the life of me I keep trying to spell his name with a ‘y’.  I’m pretty positive of the following:  Jeff Larish will be on the team in 2009.

There aren’t many left-handers on the team (Ramon Santiago is a switch hitter that gets no respect).  I feel the Adam Everett signing pretty much guarantees Detroit will need a power left-handed bat to come off the bench for pinch hitting situations, which Larish did well in his short stint last year.  Larish also fills the need as a backup first baseman (Thames and Guillen, by all reports, are pretty much outfielders from here on out).  He had a fantastic Arizona fall league, he is (apparently) serviceable at third, and apparently is now taking fly balls in the outfield (Somewhere reported that he played left field in college;  he also played third in college).  This is something to watch — how many innings Larish gets in the outfield this spring.

So there you go, that’s your bench:  Treanor, Santiago, Thames, and Larish.  But wait!  Who is your backup center fielder?

There is the possibility that they trot Inge out there in center from time to time;  i bet thats unlikely.  Leyland recently said that Santiago will not get any reps in center either;  he has also downplayed the idea that the backup center fielder must be right-handed.  Does this mean that Rayburn Raburn gets the nod, with either Santiago or Raburn learning to play first?  I think the more likely scenario is a trade involving Thames.

I’d like to keep Thames, but what’s the point if the team wants to get faster on the base-paths, more defensive (Everett signing, Laird, Treanor, Inge back to third), and already has four guys who probably should be DH’ing anyway, with a fifth hitting moon-shots in Toledo (Hessman).  At under $3million, doesn’t this guy have some trade value?  That is, of course, unless Detroit wants to drop Sheffield.  We’re getting the expected fluff about Sheffield being in the greatest shape of his life, finally being healthy (who knew someone could feel so good at age 41?), and ready to only be a DH.

My darkhorse?  Brent Clevlen.  I think the backup center field / fourth outfielder job is his to lose.  He’ll either be cut, traded, or have to pass through waivers to get back to Toledo anyway, and there aren’t any indications Detroit wants him hanging around in Toledo.  But as the rumored to be excellent defender would be very welcome as a late inning replacement.  Raburn also gives you the ability to play center AND backup in the infield, but I feel Clevlen, if he figures it out, has a better chance to be a player.   And that is entirely based on nothing in particular.

So, my random picks for the bench:  Treanor (backup catcher), Santiago (backup third, short, second), Larish (backup third, first, 5th outfielder / corner outfield), and Clevlen (4th outfielder, backup center fielder).  Marcus Thames is traded, Raburn is sent to Toledo or traded.  Either trade could be used in conjunction to help unload salaries of a starting pitcher (Robertson or Willis).  In respect for the young’ins (Wells, Ramirez), they will be treated like the young relief pitchers:  Keep them in Toledo, get them ready for injuries or 2010.

Very Darkhorse:  Sheffield / Magglio / Guillen get hurt in the spring and Thames stays while the others are on the DL report.

SIDE NOTE:  This site lists Larish playing left field, third base and first base while at ASU.

Everyone’s in camp… lets move on to relief pitching.  This one is pretty easy… no one really knows.  Plus injuries and the return from injuries could play a major part.

Who are the players involved:  Everyone not listed in the original seven “starting pitching” possibilities.  Also, the Tigers have said that the minor league starting pitchers (Porcello, etc) will remain in that role and will not make the team as relief pitchers.

Who will make the team:  All relievers with major league contracts:  Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya, Brandon Lyon, Bobby Seay.

Who has a chance to make the team if healthy:  Juan Rincon, Scott Williamson

Who may make the team as a reliever if no trade happens:  pick top 7 starting pitcher with a major league contract

Who has a shot:  Insert recent draft pick here, insert rule 5 draft pick here, insert guy traded for Jason Grilli here.

Seriously, here is what’s happening:  Detroit drafted a solid group of guys last year (Perry, Satterwhite), picked up another one possibly for Jason Grilli (Simons), and have some other guys that are coming on (Fien, Rapada).  They have a couple of main-stays (Zumaya, Rodney, Seay, new comer Lyon).  They have some guys who, if healthy and throwing well, are solid major leaguers (Williamson, Rincon).  Detroit wants the older guys to do well in camp, and then they can pitch them until their arms fall off this summer.  That gives more time for the young guys to develop.  This gives detroit many trade options in May and June if they do contend, and also slightly trims the payroll in 2010 when they let Lyon and Rodney walk — no way either guy is re-signed in the off-season.

The flip side is bringing up a youngster or two and trying to slip an older guy through waivers to start the season.  If Perry makes the team but falls apart in May, they have to bring up another youngster.  If Williamson makes the team and his arm falls off in June, they’ve got Fien, Perry to call up.  If Seay gets hurt, they can call up Rapada.  Or, if a few guys are doing well in AAA or AA, Rodney or Lyon may be useful to a contender.

So there is your bullpen.  Detroit will want to stock it full of veterans, and give a little more time to manage the farm system.  I agree with Lynn Henning on this, Rodney and Lyon will not be Tigers in 2010, though with recent free agent issues (many Type A’s are still unsigned due to giving up on draft picks), its entirely possible Detroit just moves them before the end of the year.  Lest we not forget any revenue issues, Lyon and Rodney make $7million+ combined.

Continuing on with our normal scheduled programming…

This year’s starting pitching rotation is totally up in the air.  There are six real candidates for five starting spots:  Justin Verlander, Armando Galarraga, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, and Edwin Jackson.  There is a seventh candidate, Zach Miner, that Detroit’s management doesn’t seem to think is much of a starter, though his statistics prove otherwise (and he’ll probably have every chance to make the starting squad).  The eighth candidate is a kid who normally would be a sophmore in college (Rick Porcello) that Dave Dombrowski has stated would not be held back from the major league team; “It’s not likely. It’s not highly unlikely.”  Whatever that means.  We do know that Rick Knapp was hired to turn this group around.  I do not currently know the status of remaining minor league options for this group, i’ll try to hunt around for it.

I’m not a fan of numbering the pitchers, but we’ll go through each guy’s merits, and the order of the chance I feel they have to make the rotation.

Starting Pitcher #1:  Justin Verlander

We all know and love us some Verlander.  He seemed to be pressing quite a bit last year; Jack Morris went so far to say he thought Verlander was injured.  Detroit is trying to play it off as bad mechanics that took a while to get sorted out. Coach Knapp will try to tweak things to take Verlander past the ’staff ace’ label to a ‘cy young candidate’ label.  No chance he leaves the rotation unless he gets injured.  Interesting to only me, Verlander was absolutely lights-out last year in spring training.

Starting Pitcher #2: Jeremy Bonderman

Don’t know what we’ll get out of Bonderman.  Injuries (serious ones — who gets a rib removed?) side-tracked Bonderman’s 2008 season;  2007 started strong, only to fall of considerably.  If he’s healthy, he’ll be in the rotation.  We don’t know what to expect out of Bonderman:  he (hopefully still) has a devastating slider that, combined with his low 90’s fastball, gives him.. two pitches.  Usually that means a relief pitcher.  He’s such a big guy, you’d think he’d be more of a power pitcher, and his work developing an off-speed pitch is well documented.  This is probably a make or break year, whether Bonderman can step up and become a front-line starter, or if he’s destined to fifth man role.  If the off-speed pitch doesn’t come, could Jeremy be converted to a power reliever?

Starting Pitcher #3: Armando Galarraga

Solid 2008, from a guy who was thrown away from the pitching wasteland known as the Texas Ranger farm system.  Tough to say if he’ll get any better, but a repeat of 2008 would be very very welcome.  The fear with Galarraga is this:  If Verlander, a stud with tons of talent, can regress so quickly in one off-season, and other pitchers on the staff who were so highly regarded at one point (Willis, Robertson, Jackson) can be such a question mark, you can’t be honest with yourself and say “Armando Galarraga will have a good 2009″.  Still, most likely he breaks camp in the rotation.  I have hope here that Galarraga remains a steady hand.

Starting Pitcher #4: Edwin Jackson

The rest of this order, I believe, is up in the air.  I put Jackson as the next most likely to break camp (of the rest) since DD most likely did not make this trade for Jackson to do anything but start.  Jackson had a deceptively solid won/loss record on the Rays last year, but he did improve over his 2007 numbers.  Too hard to tell (with any certainty) how Jackson will do, but he’s another power pitcher; honestly i’ve never seen him throw so i’ll reserve judgment at the moment.  Interesting stat:  he’s had exactly one balk every year for the last four years.  Seems oddly consistent here.

Starting Pitcher #5: Nate Robertson

Nate the Great followed a poor 2007 with a worse 2008.  He was larger then most Detroit Lions linebackers, but has worked hard to shed weight (reportedly down in the 225 range) to get better movement on his slider.  Without his slider, he’s a nothing pitcher.  With his slider, he still might only be a reliever this year.  Big contract, he’ll most likely be on the team in some capacity.  I think he’s probably the most likely candidate to lose his spot initially and pitch out of the bullpen.  His ERA was well over 6 last year, and his only real excuse was getting fat.  It seems he has to do the most to earn back the team’s trust (Jackson’s the new guy, Willis is still a new-ish guy after all sorts of problems, Bonderman is back from serious injury).

Starting Pitcher #6: Dontrelle Willis

Dontrelle had a forgetful 2008 (for him and the fans), which will lead the team to try to wipe the slate clean and pretend it didn’t happen.  As I stated above, I think Robertson has to do more to earn the team’s trust, but I rate Robertson as a better lock to make the rotation because we simply have no idea if Willis can pitch anymore.  A new fitness regime (wow, we had a lot of tubby tigers last year, didn’t we?) and a new coach will work on the biggest story in spring training.  The Tigers just can’t afford to eat his gigantic salary, and unlike Robertson, who may not be very good at times but could be serviceable, Willis may just tax the bullpen into oblivion.  Or kill someone if he can’t control his fastball.  Also of note:  both left handers in the mix for the starting rotation have question marks the size of their 2008 wasteline.  Its a good assumption that Leyland wants at least one left hander in the rotation;  there aren’t a lot of southpaw options after these two.

Starting Pitcher #7: Zach Miner

Seems a lot of Tiger fans and bloggers are big fans of the Zach attack… and I totally agree.  Leyland seems enamored with Miner’s ability, but wants the versatility out of the bullpen.  One thing that Miner has shown is that he is MUCH more stable when he’s able to stretch himself out and be a starting pitcher.  He put up solid numbers (he OWNED KC last year) as a starting pitcher;  I definitely feel more comfortable with Miner in the starting rotation then Bonderman, Robertson, or Willis (i’m withholding judgement on Jackson for the moment).  However, Miner has the best ability to work out of the bullpen vs the rest of the potential starters, even if it doesn’t appear his strong suit.  Being relatively cheap and versatile may facilitate a trade to improve other aspects of the team.

Darkhorse Starting Pitcher: Rick Porcello

Dombrowski talks about it.  Listen, it ain’t happening, barring the plague hitting the starting rotation.  Keep channelling the inner “verlander and zumaya made it unexpectingly”, but they were a few years older.  DD made it clear that Porcello would only make the rotation as a starting pitcher;  there are too many contracts in front of him.  His progress this year, however, may force an interesting off-season.

Darkest horse starting pitching: Joel Zumaya

Interesting storyline here.  No idea when Zumaya is scheduled to pitch again.  What if the bullpen works out of Lakeland?  What do you do with the fresh arms coming out of the farm system (all of the fast-tracked relievers from the 2008 draft are a few years younger then Zumaya).  Does Detroit think about giving Zumaya some time to develop as a starter again, where he spent most of his time in the farm system?  Would it make sense to ’stretch out’ Zumaya as he returns to form, to give the team more flexibility and allow him to gain strength?  Maybe his body can’t handle the stress of pitching every other day?  Probably a long shot on this one.

Random thoughts / notes on starting pitching:

If you’re Justin Verlander, and the team just argued over giving you an extra couple hundred grand, and you look around at how much Willis, Bonderman, and Robertson are making… at what point in spring training, after you strike out the side, do you walk back to the mound glaring at your teammates?

Rick Knapp:  The team sells him as the way to make the starting rotation ‘click’.  Oh, and he’ll fix the whole bullpen situation that sucked ballz last year.  Is this true?  Or is this hype?  This is the same position that, when the fanbase was in an uproar last year over Chuck Hernandez, the team and media downplayed the role of the pitching coach.  Now we’re supposed to believe that Knapp is the savior?  Who do we believe here?  I’d love for someone to tell me.

I still don’t know how to pronounce “Porcello”.  Por-sell-o or Por-chell-o?

I wish there was room for Miner to start.  However, with the contract situations, I hope he can harness his ability and be a more effective reliever in the short term.

I have no idea how the team will resolve the pitching rotation.  Bonderman, Robertson and Willis all scare me.  I think the Jackson trade is indicitive of how the team feels about the starting rotation — and thats not good.  DD has mentioned having so much starting pitching, he can make a trade… I can’t see how those three have any value.

I think Bonderman has a chance to end up in the bullpen if he can’t develop a third pitch, but can effectively throw his fastball and slider.  Thats what closers are made of.

Wow, this was fast.

Note: I stated that I thought this was equivalent to Lebron James testing positive in the NBA. My brother corrected me — people like Lebron. If Derek Jeter tested positive, that would probably throw the earth off of its axis.

This is probably the last i’ll talk about it; I don’t really care about a-rod’s hall of fame chances, etc. Again, I think, as a Detroit Tigers fan / blogger, the biggest impact I’m seeing on the steroid era is the perception of some of my child hood heroes; their hall of fame chances were hurt by the numbers put up by players that followed them, player’s numbers that appear chemically inflated (oh yeah, and by expansion).

What else can you say… A-Rod changes the entire landscape of the game.  Haven’t heard yet?  From Sports illustrated:

In 2003, when he won the American League home run title and the AL Most Valuable Player award as a shortstop for the Texas Rangers, Alex Rodriguez tested positive for two anabolic steroids, four sources have independently told Sports Illustrated.

To me, this is bigger then Barry Bonds.  Bigger then Mark Mcguire.  Bigger then Jose Canseco.  Why?  Because we all knew they were juicing — deep down we came up with excuses, but there was no explanation for why a 37 year old would have the greatest power numbers in the history of baseball.  What did we tell ourselves?  “Alex Rodriguez doesn’t need them;  he’s a _specimen_.  He’s a man among men.”

Honestly, the owners don’t care.  They should though.  Why?  I think Mike Illitch should ask himself, “how did I let my team compete against the Yankees, with a giant payroll, and with a serious number of players on the Mitchell report?”.

What will come out of this?  Probably nothing.  Congress’ last involvement with baseball, I felt, was quite wag the dog-esque.  Its probably not the time nor the place for government intervention against baseball players.  Oh, the media will have a field day with it… the same media that admittingly let the players slide in the 90’s (and apparently, in 2003) with rampant steroid use.  Does it matter?  Not really.  Maybe to guys like Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker and Jack Morris, who will never see the hall of fame because of the numbers put up by players that followed them… players who were obviously juiced up.  Sorry guys, enjoy your time on Magnum PI.

Where does that leave us?  Its too early to tell.  This is as bad as it could have gotten for major league baseball.  This is basically the equivalent of Lebron James getting caught with steroids for the NBA.  Its back to the beginning for MLB owners and players;  ground zero.  Game over.

For me?  I couldn’t be happier.  In the long run, none of this really matters.  It puts enough question on any player that put up abnormal numbers over the last 15 years.  It _should_ start to make all of the statistics make sense again;  players age, they should decline.  It makes running a baseball team much easier.  I also think it reduces the chance Gary Sheffield hits 30 home runs this year — lets not buy into this hype again.

The starters are set, so lets go there.  Carlos Guillen has been permanently moved to left field;  Curtis Granderson will continue to maintain center; Magglio will continue in right field.

Left Field:

Guillen is an unknown here;  after being a decent shortstop for his career, he was an awkward first baseman.  In a well publicized move, Guillen swapped with Miguel Cabrera in early 2008, taking over third base for the rest of the season.  Detroit is hoping Guillen’s legs / knees / random aches and pains will go away with a switch to the outfield.  His offensive numbers were down for 2008, (hopefully) slowing due to injury after a red-hot start at the plate.  He’s a switch hitter and really only in left field due to his bat.  Here’s to hoping he does better then last year’s opening day starter in left, Senior Jacque Jones.

Center Field:

Granderson is an exceptional person, a very good defender and a very good player.  He’s just not (yet?) the all-star we all hope he will be.  I’m hoping his stint at the WBC will help him in these aspects.  He’s very driven and continues to work on his game.  Last year he seemed to struggle getting back into playing shape, but improved his eye at the plate:  more walks and less strike-outs.  I’m not sure how the lineup will work out this year, i still think Curtis is an ideal #3 hitter, but based on the current projections he’ll probably bat lead-off again.  Most amazing to me is his lack of steals;  I guess thats just not his thing.

Right Field:

A lot of controversy around Magglio this off-season, mainly a debate on whether or not Detroit should trade him.  As the winter played out, even if they wanted to, it doesn’t appear any team is willing to touch his salary.  This should be Magglio’s last full-time season in the outfield, with Sheffield probably moving on from the DH role, allowing Magglio to take more time there.  He’s an average defender, doesn’t exactly kill you.  Having Granderson in center doesn’t hurt either.  Offensively, his 2008 numbers were on par with his career average (2007 seems to be an anomaly), and thats probably what we can predict from him.  He’s moved out of the clean-up spot in the batting order, and his 30 home run days are probably over.  Alarmingly, he grounded into many (27)  double plays.  Overall, i think most of us would be happy with a repeat of his 2008 stats.

Backups:

I’ll leave this one pretty empty, for one reason:  I have no idea who will make this team.  They’re in a hole with Sheffield being a full-time DH (and no, i’m not suggesting he try to fake the outfield again).  Their fourth outfielder, Marcus Thames, is really a clone of Sheffield / Magglio / Guillen — better suited for DH, though i’m hoping Guillen is more serviceable in the field.  The reality is, I don’t truly know who will break camp and head north besides the starting three.

Overall thoughts:

2009 should be fine;  I’m concerned about 2010 due to the contracts of Guillen and Ordonez, and how crushing they might be to the payroll.  Barring injury and hoping for the best case transition for Guillen, this could be a productive unit offensively and decent defensively.  Best case?  Granderson becomes an all-star, Guillen is a good fielder, and injuries don’t hurt them.  Worst case?  Injuries.  Start running for the hills case?  Guillen can’t play left, Ordonez gets some weird leg injury (like Guillen in early 2008) where he can still hit but can’t field, and now you’ve got nearly $50 million guys trying to get at-bats at DH.  Thats my serious concern.. what can Detroit do if Guillen can’t play left?  Here’s to hope.

This one is easy:  two new guys, an emphasis carried over from the infield (defense), and an unlucky trait shared by the left side of the infield (a lack of hitting).  The Tigers have two new catchers in 2009:  Gerald Laird and Matt Treanor.  Both, I think, are excellent pickups.

Starting catcher:  Laird.  He is known as an excellent defensive catcher;  he is an average hitter, and he should help to improve the pitching staff.

Backup catcher:  Treanor.  Married to a pseudo-hot chic (yeah, if she wasn’t an olympic athlete, i wouldn’t be so high on her, but she is what she is), and a solid backup catcher.  As mentioned in the detroit tiger podcast:  Treanor is an excellent pickup as a backup;  it was scary when we thought he might be looked on as the starter.  He can’t hit.  He’s expected to improve the pitching staff, and hopefully his old battery-mate Dontrelle Willis (along with, you know, Willis losing some weight and throwing strikes to help him out).  Sounds like Treanor was the personal catcher of Willis in Florida (or, otherwise known as, the “glory years”).

Catcher to spare:  Dusty Ryan.  Very very very excited to see him getting the chance to play every day in Toledo, instead of backing up in Detroit.  He looked solid at the end of last year, but has struggled in winter ball (give the kid some time off maybe?), and now he can get more playing time at a higher level then AA.  I do get the feeling Detroit is hoping that Al Avila’s son is the future of catching, but he has limited time behind the plate.  Here’s to hoping Ryan progresses even further in 2009.

I totally agree with Tom Gage on this… the catchers need to be monitored for their workload.  Laird seems best in the 100 game range for the year;  Treanor in the 50 games-ish / year.  I do buy into the idea that catching in Texas can wear someone down, and that its possible Laird might actually improve behind the plate this year.  I think Leyland struggled with how to play Pudge last year in the day-game-after-a-night-game situation, especially at home.  However, i don’t think there will be many kids coming out to the ballpark on a Sunday who will be upset if Laird isn’t behind the plate.

Interesting subplot:  Treanor taking shots at Miguel Cabrera after he left Florida.  I don’t see much coming out of this;  Treanor may or may not apologize, and Cabrera may or may not take time from counting his $20million to care.  Cabrera does seem like a goofy guy, so maybe Treaner gets the old “shaving cream in the hat”, or my favorite, “icy-hot in the cup” treatment as a ‘hello, old friend!” from his former Marlin teammate.

Ian brought it up today, linking to its just sports, who linked to a Bill Simmons’ article.  I read the Simmons’ article when it came out, and Simmons has mentioned it at least once on his podcast as well… the idea that the mid market teams might have an ugly summer.

The mid market teams Simmons talks about is mainly Detroit and St. Louis; in Detroit’s case, would a huge downturn in attendance force a Miguel Cabrera trade to anyone willing to listen.  Simmons takes it a step farther in his column, suggesting Boston’s strategy at first base is actually to just wait out Detroit until they run out of money.  Is it crazy?  Absolutely not.  Here’s my take on it:  It might happen, but it wouldn’t involve Cabrera.

I have absolutely no insight on Detroit’s cash flow.  I imagine they did pretty well in the 2006 season, then again in 2007 (higher payroll, but excellent attendance), and probably decent in 2008 (even higher payroll, attendance still good).  All seasons saw very good spring training numbers.  What does all this mean?  I have no idea.   As stated by Tom Gage, Detroit has about a 10% reduction in payroll in 2009, whether this was an owner mandate, we can only guess.

Here’s what we do know:  Miguel Cabrera’s salary over the next 5 – 7 years.  And Dontrelle Willis’ salary;  and Bonderman, Robertson, Granderson, Inge, Ordonez, Guillen.  Besides Cabrera and Granderson, the other contracts are probably untradeable (no matter what a 26 year old Bonderman does in 2009, he’s probably not worth $10million to another team).  What is unknown?  Justin Verlander’s 2010 contract number.  or 2011.  What if Verlander goes 18-10 in 2009?  Top 5 in the Cy-young award?  Detroit can’t plan for that.  What about Gallaraga or Miner?  Zumaya?  Arbitration numbers could inflate the payroll if the pitching staff has an awesome year.  That is the unknown for the ownership.  They know they’re giving $20million to Cabrera, who should play 150 games every year.  Would they be willing to pay $15 million to Verlander, knowing he’s only going to pitch in every fifth game?

With his monster contract, Cabrera is still tradeable — but only to a few teams.  And knowing this, Detroit wouldn’t be able to command much in return; it would be a salary dump.  Boston isn’t going to have to out-bid the Yankees, Cleveland, etc.  However, could Detroit get a CC Sabathia-like prospect return from a Verlander who hasn’t yet hit free agency?  Probably.

Another theory — say Detroit wants to get rid of a Carlos Guillen or a Maglio.  How do they do this?  By offering an Armando Galarraga and / or Zach Miner to entice the deal.  Basically, “you take Ordonez and his monster contract, and take two major league starting pitchers with him”.  You still keep the core of the team, but you give up cheap starting pitchers.  Doesn’t make Detroit better, but it would shed some contracts.  When Dombrowski says “we have so much pitching, we might make a trade“, he’s referring to Miner and Galarraga.  No way a team takes on Bonderman, Willis, or Robertson, and I don’t think DD aquired Edwin Jackson just to move him again.

Like I mentioned yesterday, if Detroit has some serious cash flow problems in early 2009, you’ll see it with a Placido Polanco trade (in essence, just ditching $4million for 2009).  I think Cabrera, a few years away from his prime, is a known asset (in both production and in cost) and least likely to hit the trade block.  It would be interesting if Detroit tries a Florida / Cabrera-esque trade with one of their cheap pitchers, IE “you take some talent and some baggage”.