Tiger Geist

This one is easy:  two new guys, an emphasis carried over from the infield (defense), and an unlucky trait shared by the left side of the infield (a lack of hitting).  The Tigers have two new catchers in 2009:  Gerald Laird and Matt Treanor.  Both, I think, are excellent pickups.

Starting catcher:  Laird.  He is known as an excellent defensive catcher;  he is an average hitter, and he should help to improve the pitching staff.

Backup catcher:  Treanor.  Married to a pseudo-hot chic (yeah, if she wasn’t an olympic athlete, i wouldn’t be so high on her, but she is what she is), and a solid backup catcher.  As mentioned in the detroit tiger podcast:  Treanor is an excellent pickup as a backup;  it was scary when we thought he might be looked on as the starter.  He can’t hit.  He’s expected to improve the pitching staff, and hopefully his old battery-mate Dontrelle Willis (along with, you know, Willis losing some weight and throwing strikes to help him out).  Sounds like Treanor was the personal catcher of Willis in Florida (or, otherwise known as, the “glory years”).

Catcher to spare:  Dusty Ryan.  Very very very excited to see him getting the chance to play every day in Toledo, instead of backing up in Detroit.  He looked solid at the end of last year, but has struggled in winter ball (give the kid some time off maybe?), and now he can get more playing time at a higher level then AA.  I do get the feeling Detroit is hoping that Al Avila’s son is the future of catching, but he has limited time behind the plate.  Here’s to hoping Ryan progresses even further in 2009.

I totally agree with Tom Gage on this… the catchers need to be monitored for their workload.  Laird seems best in the 100 game range for the year;  Treanor in the 50 games-ish / year.  I do buy into the idea that catching in Texas can wear someone down, and that its possible Laird might actually improve behind the plate this year.  I think Leyland struggled with how to play Pudge last year in the day-game-after-a-night-game situation, especially at home.  However, i don’t think there will be many kids coming out to the ballpark on a Sunday who will be upset if Laird isn’t behind the plate.

Interesting subplot:  Treanor taking shots at Miguel Cabrera after he left Florida.  I don’t see much coming out of this;  Treanor may or may not apologize, and Cabrera may or may not take time from counting his $20million to care.  Cabrera does seem like a goofy guy, so maybe Treaner gets the old “shaving cream in the hat”, or my favorite, “icy-hot in the cup” treatment as a ‘hello, old friend!” from his former Marlin teammate.

Ian brought it up today, linking to its just sports, who linked to a Bill Simmons’ article.  I read the Simmons’ article when it came out, and Simmons has mentioned it at least once on his podcast as well… the idea that the mid market teams might have an ugly summer.

The mid market teams Simmons talks about is mainly Detroit and St. Louis; in Detroit’s case, would a huge downturn in attendance force a Miguel Cabrera trade to anyone willing to listen.  Simmons takes it a step farther in his column, suggesting Boston’s strategy at first base is actually to just wait out Detroit until they run out of money.  Is it crazy?  Absolutely not.  Here’s my take on it:  It might happen, but it wouldn’t involve Cabrera.

I have absolutely no insight on Detroit’s cash flow.  I imagine they did pretty well in the 2006 season, then again in 2007 (higher payroll, but excellent attendance), and probably decent in 2008 (even higher payroll, attendance still good).  All seasons saw very good spring training numbers.  What does all this mean?  I have no idea.   As stated by Tom Gage, Detroit has about a 10% reduction in payroll in 2009, whether this was an owner mandate, we can only guess.

Here’s what we do know:  Miguel Cabrera’s salary over the next 5 – 7 years.  And Dontrelle Willis’ salary;  and Bonderman, Robertson, Granderson, Inge, Ordonez, Guillen.  Besides Cabrera and Granderson, the other contracts are probably untradeable (no matter what a 26 year old Bonderman does in 2009, he’s probably not worth $10million to another team).  What is unknown?  Justin Verlander’s 2010 contract number.  or 2011.  What if Verlander goes 18-10 in 2009?  Top 5 in the Cy-young award?  Detroit can’t plan for that.  What about Gallaraga or Miner?  Zumaya?  Arbitration numbers could inflate the payroll if the pitching staff has an awesome year.  That is the unknown for the ownership.  They know they’re giving $20million to Cabrera, who should play 150 games every year.  Would they be willing to pay $15 million to Verlander, knowing he’s only going to pitch in every fifth game?

With his monster contract, Cabrera is still tradeable — but only to a few teams.  And knowing this, Detroit wouldn’t be able to command much in return; it would be a salary dump.  Boston isn’t going to have to out-bid the Yankees, Cleveland, etc.  However, could Detroit get a CC Sabathia-like prospect return from a Verlander who hasn’t yet hit free agency?  Probably.

Another theory — say Detroit wants to get rid of a Carlos Guillen or a Maglio.  How do they do this?  By offering an Armando Galarraga and / or Zach Miner to entice the deal.  Basically, “you take Ordonez and his monster contract, and take two major league starting pitchers with him”.  You still keep the core of the team, but you give up cheap starting pitchers.  Doesn’t make Detroit better, but it would shed some contracts.  When Dombrowski says “we have so much pitching, we might make a trade“, he’s referring to Miner and Galarraga.  No way a team takes on Bonderman, Willis, or Robertson, and I don’t think DD aquired Edwin Jackson just to move him again.

Like I mentioned yesterday, if Detroit has some serious cash flow problems in early 2009, you’ll see it with a Placido Polanco trade (in essence, just ditching $4million for 2009).  I think Cabrera, a few years away from his prime, is a known asset (in both production and in cost) and least likely to hit the trade block.  It would be interesting if Detroit tries a Florida / Cabrera-esque trade with one of their cheap pitchers, IE “you take some talent and some baggage”.