Tiger Geist

Ian brought it up today, linking to its just sports, who linked to a Bill Simmons’ article.  I read the Simmons’ article when it came out, and Simmons has mentioned it at least once on his podcast as well… the idea that the mid market teams might have an ugly summer.

The mid market teams Simmons talks about is mainly Detroit and St. Louis; in Detroit’s case, would a huge downturn in attendance force a Miguel Cabrera trade to anyone willing to listen.  Simmons takes it a step farther in his column, suggesting Boston’s strategy at first base is actually to just wait out Detroit until they run out of money.  Is it crazy?  Absolutely not.  Here’s my take on it:  It might happen, but it wouldn’t involve Cabrera.

I have absolutely no insight on Detroit’s cash flow.  I imagine they did pretty well in the 2006 season, then again in 2007 (higher payroll, but excellent attendance), and probably decent in 2008 (even higher payroll, attendance still good).  All seasons saw very good spring training numbers.  What does all this mean?  I have no idea.   As stated by Tom Gage, Detroit has about a 10% reduction in payroll in 2009, whether this was an owner mandate, we can only guess.

Here’s what we do know:  Miguel Cabrera’s salary over the next 5 – 7 years.  And Dontrelle Willis’ salary;  and Bonderman, Robertson, Granderson, Inge, Ordonez, Guillen.  Besides Cabrera and Granderson, the other contracts are probably untradeable (no matter what a 26 year old Bonderman does in 2009, he’s probably not worth $10million to another team).  What is unknown?  Justin Verlander’s 2010 contract number.  or 2011.  What if Verlander goes 18-10 in 2009?  Top 5 in the Cy-young award?  Detroit can’t plan for that.  What about Gallaraga or Miner?  Zumaya?  Arbitration numbers could inflate the payroll if the pitching staff has an awesome year.  That is the unknown for the ownership.  They know they’re giving $20million to Cabrera, who should play 150 games every year.  Would they be willing to pay $15 million to Verlander, knowing he’s only going to pitch in every fifth game?

With his monster contract, Cabrera is still tradeable — but only to a few teams.  And knowing this, Detroit wouldn’t be able to command much in return; it would be a salary dump.  Boston isn’t going to have to out-bid the Yankees, Cleveland, etc.  However, could Detroit get a CC Sabathia-like prospect return from a Verlander who hasn’t yet hit free agency?  Probably.

Another theory — say Detroit wants to get rid of a Carlos Guillen or a Maglio.  How do they do this?  By offering an Armando Galarraga and / or Zach Miner to entice the deal.  Basically, “you take Ordonez and his monster contract, and take two major league starting pitchers with him”.  You still keep the core of the team, but you give up cheap starting pitchers.  Doesn’t make Detroit better, but it would shed some contracts.  When Dombrowski says “we have so much pitching, we might make a trade“, he’s referring to Miner and Galarraga.  No way a team takes on Bonderman, Willis, or Robertson, and I don’t think DD aquired Edwin Jackson just to move him again.

Like I mentioned yesterday, if Detroit has some serious cash flow problems in early 2009, you’ll see it with a Placido Polanco trade (in essence, just ditching $4million for 2009).  I think Cabrera, a few years away from his prime, is a known asset (in both production and in cost) and least likely to hit the trade block.  It would be interesting if Detroit tries a Florida / Cabrera-esque trade with one of their cheap pitchers, IE “you take some talent and some baggage”.