2009 Spring Training thoughts: Starting Pitching
Continuing on with our normal scheduled programming…
This year’s starting pitching rotation is totally up in the air. There are six real candidates for five starting spots: Justin Verlander, Armando Galarraga, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, and Edwin Jackson. There is a seventh candidate, Zach Miner, that Detroit’s management doesn’t seem to think is much of a starter, though his statistics prove otherwise (and he’ll probably have every chance to make the starting squad). The eighth candidate is a kid who normally would be a sophmore in college (Rick Porcello) that Dave Dombrowski has stated would not be held back from the major league team; “It’s not likely. It’s not highly unlikely.” Whatever that means. We do know that Rick Knapp was hired to turn this group around. I do not currently know the status of remaining minor league options for this group, i’ll try to hunt around for it.
I’m not a fan of numbering the pitchers, but we’ll go through each guy’s merits, and the order of the chance I feel they have to make the rotation.
Starting Pitcher #1: Justin Verlander
We all know and love us some Verlander. He seemed to be pressing quite a bit last year; Jack Morris went so far to say he thought Verlander was injured. Detroit is trying to play it off as bad mechanics that took a while to get sorted out. Coach Knapp will try to tweak things to take Verlander past the ’staff ace’ label to a ‘cy young candidate’ label. No chance he leaves the rotation unless he gets injured. Interesting to only me, Verlander was absolutely lights-out last year in spring training.
Starting Pitcher #2: Jeremy Bonderman
Don’t know what we’ll get out of Bonderman. Injuries (serious ones — who gets a rib removed?) side-tracked Bonderman’s 2008 season; 2007 started strong, only to fall of considerably. If he’s healthy, he’ll be in the rotation. We don’t know what to expect out of Bonderman: he (hopefully still) has a devastating slider that, combined with his low 90’s fastball, gives him.. two pitches. Usually that means a relief pitcher. He’s such a big guy, you’d think he’d be more of a power pitcher, and his work developing an off-speed pitch is well documented. This is probably a make or break year, whether Bonderman can step up and become a front-line starter, or if he’s destined to fifth man role. If the off-speed pitch doesn’t come, could Jeremy be converted to a power reliever?
Starting Pitcher #3: Armando Galarraga
Solid 2008, from a guy who was thrown away from the pitching wasteland known as the Texas Ranger farm system. Tough to say if he’ll get any better, but a repeat of 2008 would be very very welcome. The fear with Galarraga is this: If Verlander, a stud with tons of talent, can regress so quickly in one off-season, and other pitchers on the staff who were so highly regarded at one point (Willis, Robertson, Jackson) can be such a question mark, you can’t be honest with yourself and say “Armando Galarraga will have a good 2009″. Still, most likely he breaks camp in the rotation. I have hope here that Galarraga remains a steady hand.
Starting Pitcher #4: Edwin Jackson
The rest of this order, I believe, is up in the air. I put Jackson as the next most likely to break camp (of the rest) since DD most likely did not make this trade for Jackson to do anything but start. Jackson had a deceptively solid won/loss record on the Rays last year, but he did improve over his 2007 numbers. Too hard to tell (with any certainty) how Jackson will do, but he’s another power pitcher; honestly i’ve never seen him throw so i’ll reserve judgment at the moment. Interesting stat: he’s had exactly one balk every year for the last four years. Seems oddly consistent here.
Starting Pitcher #5: Nate Robertson
Nate the Great followed a poor 2007 with a worse 2008. He was larger then most Detroit Lions linebackers, but has worked hard to shed weight (reportedly down in the 225 range) to get better movement on his slider. Without his slider, he’s a nothing pitcher. With his slider, he still might only be a reliever this year. Big contract, he’ll most likely be on the team in some capacity. I think he’s probably the most likely candidate to lose his spot initially and pitch out of the bullpen. His ERA was well over 6 last year, and his only real excuse was getting fat. It seems he has to do the most to earn back the team’s trust (Jackson’s the new guy, Willis is still a new-ish guy after all sorts of problems, Bonderman is back from serious injury).
Starting Pitcher #6: Dontrelle Willis
Dontrelle had a forgetful 2008 (for him and the fans), which will lead the team to try to wipe the slate clean and pretend it didn’t happen. As I stated above, I think Robertson has to do more to earn the team’s trust, but I rate Robertson as a better lock to make the rotation because we simply have no idea if Willis can pitch anymore. A new fitness regime (wow, we had a lot of tubby tigers last year, didn’t we?) and a new coach will work on the biggest story in spring training. The Tigers just can’t afford to eat his gigantic salary, and unlike Robertson, who may not be very good at times but could be serviceable, Willis may just tax the bullpen into oblivion. Or kill someone if he can’t control his fastball. Also of note: both left handers in the mix for the starting rotation have question marks the size of their 2008 wasteline. Its a good assumption that Leyland wants at least one left hander in the rotation; there aren’t a lot of southpaw options after these two.
Starting Pitcher #7: Zach Miner
Seems a lot of Tiger fans and bloggers are big fans of the Zach attack… and I totally agree. Leyland seems enamored with Miner’s ability, but wants the versatility out of the bullpen. One thing that Miner has shown is that he is MUCH more stable when he’s able to stretch himself out and be a starting pitcher. He put up solid numbers (he OWNED KC last year) as a starting pitcher; I definitely feel more comfortable with Miner in the starting rotation then Bonderman, Robertson, or Willis (i’m withholding judgement on Jackson for the moment). However, Miner has the best ability to work out of the bullpen vs the rest of the potential starters, even if it doesn’t appear his strong suit. Being relatively cheap and versatile may facilitate a trade to improve other aspects of the team.
Darkhorse Starting Pitcher: Rick Porcello
Dombrowski talks about it. Listen, it ain’t happening, barring the plague hitting the starting rotation. Keep channelling the inner “verlander and zumaya made it unexpectingly”, but they were a few years older. DD made it clear that Porcello would only make the rotation as a starting pitcher; there are too many contracts in front of him. His progress this year, however, may force an interesting off-season.
Darkest horse starting pitching: Joel Zumaya
Interesting storyline here. No idea when Zumaya is scheduled to pitch again. What if the bullpen works out of Lakeland? What do you do with the fresh arms coming out of the farm system (all of the fast-tracked relievers from the 2008 draft are a few years younger then Zumaya). Does Detroit think about giving Zumaya some time to develop as a starter again, where he spent most of his time in the farm system? Would it make sense to ’stretch out’ Zumaya as he returns to form, to give the team more flexibility and allow him to gain strength? Maybe his body can’t handle the stress of pitching every other day? Probably a long shot on this one.
Random thoughts / notes on starting pitching:
If you’re Justin Verlander, and the team just argued over giving you an extra couple hundred grand, and you look around at how much Willis, Bonderman, and Robertson are making… at what point in spring training, after you strike out the side, do you walk back to the mound glaring at your teammates?
Rick Knapp: The team sells him as the way to make the starting rotation ‘click’. Oh, and he’ll fix the whole bullpen situation that sucked ballz last year. Is this true? Or is this hype? This is the same position that, when the fanbase was in an uproar last year over Chuck Hernandez, the team and media downplayed the role of the pitching coach. Now we’re supposed to believe that Knapp is the savior? Who do we believe here? I’d love for someone to tell me.
I still don’t know how to pronounce “Porcello”. Por-sell-o or Por-chell-o?
I wish there was room for Miner to start. However, with the contract situations, I hope he can harness his ability and be a more effective reliever in the short term.
I have no idea how the team will resolve the pitching rotation. Bonderman, Robertson and Willis all scare me. I think the Jackson trade is indicitive of how the team feels about the starting rotation — and thats not good. DD has mentioned having so much starting pitching, he can make a trade… I can’t see how those three have any value.
I think Bonderman has a chance to end up in the bullpen if he can’t develop a third pitch, but can effectively throw his fastball and slider. Thats what closers are made of.