Tiger Geist

As I mentioned yesterday, I asked a few different Tiger Bloggers two questions heading into the season:

1) What was your biggest surprise of spring training?

2) Detroit opens with 10 straight games before their first off-day.  Is there anything you’re looking for during this opening stretch?

Here are a few of the responses:

Lee at Detroit Tiger Tales:

(1) The biggest surprise of spring training was the release of Gary Sheffield.   I thought it might happen some time during the season but I was not expecting them to eat $14 million right before opening day.  I do think it’s a a good move because it gives them more roster flexibility.  It’s hard to have a versatile bench when you have a full-time designated hitter.  They can now use the designated hitter spot to rest Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera on occasion without taking them out of the line-up.
The second biggest surprise was Ryan Perry’s strong spring.  I knew he had a lot of upside but, given his lack of professional experience, I was expecting him to have command issues.  He still might have problems once the season starts but he has definitely earned his spot on the roster for now.  Rick Porcello was less of a surprise because I knew that he was a very polished pitcher for his age and experience.
(2) I have faith that they will score runs and I believe their fielding is very solid.  Like everyone else, I’m concerned about their pitching staff so I’ll be looking for positive signs concerning both their starting rotation and bullpen.  Specifically, they need a big year from Justin Verlander and a couple of strong starts at the beginning of the season would be a nice boost.  From the rest of the rotation, I would be encouraged if I saw a good number of six plus inning starts.  As for the bullpen, I’ll be elated if they don’t blow any of the first ten games. Or at least not more than one blown game!

Kudos to Lee for being kind enough to answer AND not making fun of the grammatical errors in my email to him.

Big Al takes some time away from The Wayne Fontes Experience and worrying about Matthew Stafford:

1. In my mind, the biggest surprise of camp was the release of Gary Sheffield, if only for the amount of money involved. No matter how rich you may be, and Mike Ilitch is rich enough to weave his toupee out of $100 bills, $14 million is a huge amount to let walk away, getting so little in return.

Thing is, Sheffield was an impact player…for all of 2-3 months in 2007. Other than his great start in ’07, Sheffield, thanks to his shoulder injury, had turned into a non-entity, and blocked any chance at giving Jim Leyland much needed roster flexibility. It’s sad to say about a possible Hall of Fame player, but Sheffield deserved to be released.

Which leads me to another big time surprise, the Tigers actually keeping the best 25 players on the roster, no matter their past reputation, money owed or veteran status. In cutting Sheffield to make room for the young, power hitting Jeff Larish, and keeping the even younger and untested pitchers Ryan Perry and Rick Porcello, all of whom outperformed their veteran rivals in spring training, the best 25 players in camp actually did go north.

By putting Perry in the pen, and Porcello in the rotation, the Tigers had to demote Dontrelle Willis (owed $20+ million) to Toledo, and Nate Robertson (owed $14+ million) to mop up man status. But it was something the Tigers had to do if they wanted to compete with the best possible 25 man roster.

2.  Not going 0-10. Seriously.

What I want to see in those first 10 games is the Tigers not end their season before it truly gets started.

The Tigers don’t need to go 10-0 or 9-1 in that opening stretch. It’d be nice, I’d be ecstatic, but it’s unrealistic. (A team going 9-0, 16-1, then 35-5 is a once in a lifetime event, and we’ve had it in ours. Well, in mine, anyway.) But I could live with 5-5, even 4-6. Hell, 3-7 wouldn’t have me in “EVERYBODY PANIC!!!” mode…yet.

If Jim Leyland wants the contract extension he was denied in the off season, he can ill afford another excruciating 0 for the season start. Ilitch’s rug covered head would explode, and the fanbase would go ballistic, wanting heads, preferably one with a lit Marlboro, to roll.

Detroit’s 0-7 first week in ’08 immediately put the team behind the 8 ball, and left them scrambling the rest of the season. The Tigers never recovered, making for the most disappointing year of Tiger fandom I can remember…though I would prefer not to.

So win a few of those first 10 games, and I’ll be relieved. Not happy. Nor ticked off. But relieved the season isn’t over before it stops snowing in Detroit.

Yeah… 0-10… ouch.  That would be quite the kick in the shorts.  Let’s not forget those baseball posts after the NFL draft!

Last, Billfer at the Detroit Tigers Weblog was short and sweet:

1. That Gary Sheffield was cut
2. Pitching that doesn’t suck, Fernando Rodney surprising people, and bench players being overused.

Billfer’s season preview pretty much sums it up:  The 2009 Tigers — they might not suck

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Oh man I’m excited.  Some Tiger Bloggers were almost able to pull the trigger on getting a round table podcast going this weekend, but those pesky Spartans intervened.  Oh well, hopefully next week.  Sounds like Mike & the boys did a pre-opening day round table at the detroit tigers podcast.  Glad to see Big Al is able to divert a little attention away from his beloved Lions to talk some Tigers.  Very interested to see the daily podcast updates (seems like a lot of work!!)

While I did some preparation to talk about the season, its hard not to get fired up.  This could be a great year.  It could be a bad year.  But, as a fan, its again OUR year.  We buy the tickets, we buy the merchandise, we call radio stations / write blogs / talk to our friends.  Spring is over, now its time to hand the games back to the fans.  Opening day!

I emailed a few of the Tiger Bloggers two questions that I wanted others to discuss, and I should be posting their responses this week.  Here is what I asked:

1) What was your biggest surprise of spring training?

2) Detroit opens with 10 straight games before their first off-day.  Is there anything you’re looking for during this opening stretch?

I was vague on the second question; I couldn’t get the wording correct as I was chatting with Joe at motorcitybengals.com about it, and then i realized i liked it to vague.  If you’re looking forward to seeing Paws, go get you some Paws… no reason to try to stear the question.

First, I’ll answer the questions:

1) My biggest surprise was Eddie Bonine making the team.  What’s more, he’s poised to be an asset to the bullpen.  Could not have conceived this notion in January. Welcomed surprise for sure, though we’ll see how welcome it is in May.

2) I’m looking to see how Jimmy Leyland manages this team.  You don’t have a lot of off days, and you have 4 major team contributors who played a lot of meaningful WBC games.  I have never felt that Leyland was a great in-game manager, and this is a team that needs a great manager.  I will be very interested in how many times Jeff Larish pinch-hits for Adam Everett late in a close game; how Leyland tries to utilize Josh Anderson’s speed, and how many guys get thrown out at home by a crappy decision by Gene Lamont.  The 2009 Tigers have more role players then in the past, and they can help the team if utilized correctly.  10 straight games should be enough to see how Leyland wants to play out the year strategically.

Predictions on the year?  I have no clue.  I feel this is a .500 team that can move up a few wins with proper managing, but can easily sit in the low 70′s win range.  I’m still not quite sure where all of these pitching innings will come from yet — I have not got my head around the starting rotation.  It was completely unfathomable that Detroit enters the season without Robertson, Willis or Bonderman as starting pitchers.  I finally got my head around the position players so it’ll take me a few days to understand the pitching situation.

<geek alert>

MLB.tv looks awesome.  Not cheap at $20 / month or $110 / year, you can watch all games with DVR like functions and re-watch games later.  For a guy on the west coast who has a day job, this is huge.  Last year’s service was clunky though not awful, but only offered a live feed.  MLB dropped silverlight for adobe in a not surprising move (the surprising move was that they tried to use silverlight in the first place) and i’m excited to try it out.  I just purchased the $10 iphone app — also very very cool.

</geek alert>

Plenty of discussion on the release of Gary Sheffield, and congrats to him signing on with the Mets.  Detroit management stated the reason for the release was more flexibility.  Totally agree.  But what else?

Detroit management have no idea what to expect out of Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen.

In terms of losing a step, in terms of hitting, in terms of general health.  The big cloud over the steroid era (which may go back to the early 1990′s) is that no team has any actual data on how a baseball player ages anymore.  None.  While its pretty well chronicled the size of Barry Bonds body (and, in Game of Shadows, his testicles) and the muscular effects steroids had on Bonds, the biggest deal was that he averaged 143 games per season from 2000 until 2004 on chornically bad knees.  Thats years 36 – 40 of Barry Lamar Bonds’ life.  Recovery time and the ability to play every day was huge.

What do Detroit officials know, or at least are pretty sure of right now?  Steroids aren’t a part of the game in 2009.  You’ve got a 35 year old outfielder who has had major knee surgery, requiring new procedures to fix it.  You have a 33 year old left fielder who has battled all sorts of injuries (legs, back) throughout his career, including his stint in Detroit.  “Roster flexibility” is a must.

Detroit has NO CHANCE of a decent 2009 if they can’t protect Miguel Cabrera in the lineup.  Guillen and Ordonez must have a good year for the team to be successful.  I feel the Matt Joyce / Edwin Jackson trade was made because Detroit wasn’t sure about the health and availability to contribute of Bonderman, Robertson and Willis… the Sheffield release indicates they are really unsure of how their elder statesmen will perform.  And its absolutely a league-wide problem that GMs will have to deal with, both with existing players and new contracts.

Interesting line note — to trigger Ordonez’s monster 2010 and 2011 contracts, here are the stipulations (via cot’s contracts):

• 2010 option guaranteed at $18M if Ordonez has:
  • 135 starts or 540 PAs in 2009, or
  • 270 starts or 1,080 PAs in 2008-09
• 2011 option guaranteed at $15M if Ordonez has:
  • 135 starts or 540 PAs in 2010, or
  • 270 starts or 1,080 PAs in 2009-10

If 2010 is not guaranteed, there is a $3million buy out.  When the contract was signed, I was pretty sure Magglio would hit the stipulations.  However, with his stint on the DL (June – July 2008), Magglio had 146 games played (not sure on the starts) and 623 play appearances for 2008.  So.. if there is an injury to Magglio, and a few ‘rests’ here or there early in the season to get Thames, Anderson or Larish more playing time… Ordonez’s 2010 contract is no longer a sure thing.  If Detroit isn’t contending, could they try to shelve Magglio in September?  I’m sure the players union would have something to say about that, and it would make for an unhappy clubhouse.  While 2010 is still likely to get triggered — probably only needs 115 starts this year — 2011 is definately up in the air.

Detroit is already taking heat for the unusual diagnosis for Dontrelle Willis; you’d hate to see Magglio’s agent arguing with team doctors about a trip to the disabled list.

Its been quite the week.  With the recent roster moves, it feels like management is back in control of this team.  Dombrowski and Leyland, partners in crime.  Illitch, the silent business partner.  It felt like last year Leyland let the players have too much control (see the failed Sheffield in the outfield experiment), but he seems quite content on tightening the reins in 2009.  Sheffield?  Gone.  Porcello?  On the team.  Robertson?  Bullpen.  Willis?  Well this does get interesting.

Buster Olney talks about how teams are nervous about what Detroit is doing:

Heard this: In the aftermath of the Tigers’ decision to place Dontrelle Willis on the disabled list for anxiety, there were a lot of folks with other teams speaking on background about the possibility for roster abuse under similar circumstances. “I hope Major League Baseball followed up on that and got specific documentation, because you could conceivably tuck away a lot of players for anxiety,” a rival general manager said. “Hell, one of my pitchers is anxious about facing Albert Pujols — if I get a doctor to say it, can I put him on the disabled list?”

MLB will follow up more frequently on a diagnosis for anxiety, according to one source, and did in this case. But the Tigers’ team doctor certified the diagnosis, and as one official says, “Baseball does tend to give the benefit of the doubt because of the nature of it. You’d hate to challenge a team on a diagnosis like that and turn out to be wrong.” MLB will continue to track Willis and other players given similar diagnoses in an attempt to ensure that teams don’t use them to tuck away players on the DL. “It’s not as cut-and-dried in the way that a pulled hamstring is,” one official said.

I don’t think Detroit has any ill-intent on this issue;  I do think it gives them some time to evaluate Dontrelle in a few more games that don’t count then they would have gotten otherwise.  I don’t know if this is about insurance money or not.  But if Dontrelle has an issue, he or the players association can file a grievance.

More player notes:

Hessman?  Down to Toledo (must pass waivers and decide not to play in Japan first);  Raburn?  Optioned to Toledo (on the block?).

Biggest surprise of the spring (for me) — Eddie Bonine makes the team.  Obviously Eddie has pitched well enough to make this team.  However, if you listed everything that has since transpired (Porcello on the team, Sheffield cut, DL stints all around, Bonine making the team) and asked me to order the chances of each item happening this past January  — I’d have ranked Bonine making the Tigers as the least likely.  Congrats Eddie.

So the big question is… Larish or Clevlen?  Since I actually don’t know if we have a backup first baseman (Guillen??), Larish seems an obvious fit.  Actually, I’ll almost guarantee that Jeff Larish is a Tiger by April 30th.  But since its obvious Detroit doesn’t think Clevlen will pass through waivers (or they would have attempted it already), there is still a chance Brent makes the team.  Here’s why:  Detroit will face at least two left handed starting pitchers in their four game series in Toronto; depending on how Leyland wants to hand out the DH assignment (and with Josh Anderson now in the mix), there may not be a lot of at-bats for a left hander anyway.  Detroit could option Larish to Toledo and take Clevlen to the great white north just for more time to trade him.  Even if Clevlen is cut by the home opener, injuries do happen.  That said, similar to my Thames post where Sheffield was cut about six hours after I wrote it, just thinking this may have guaranteed Clevlen gets cut by midnight.

I like where Lynn Henning’s head is at.  By keeping Thames, they have a relatively cheap power hitter that is almost disposable.  Thames breaks down in the second half?  No problem, trade him or cut him.  Clete Thomas will have to play.  If they can bring up some more speed from Toledo, there is nothing sacred about Josh Anderson that guarantees he’s on the team in August.

Leyland will have his say on this roster, and in 2009 he’ll be the reason Detroit is successful.  I don’t think the roster has enough talent to win in this very tough division without Leyland controlling the team better then he did in 2008.  So far, I think he’s made his statement.