2009 Tigers: How soon is now?
Going into the 2009 season, I really felt this might be a decent team. But i REALLY felt Detroit might be a very good 2010 team. Silently, I was waiting for Detroit to make some moves to bolster its AAA team and maybe shed some salary to try to make a run next year. Then, it became apparent that teams were not taking on contracts; trades for major league players have been nearly impossible. Of course, a few things happened along the way. Rick Porcello happened. The steady decline of Magglio Ordonez and the non-existent play of Carlos Guillen (and to some extent, Marcus Thames) did not doom the team. In fact, the defensive play of Detroit matched its solid pitching and led to Detroit leading the central divison for much of the season. As of tonight (June 24), they have their biggest division lead of the year, at 5 games.
In essence, I felt Detroit would be best off moving some of their free-agents-to-be for talent that might be ready in early to mid 2010. Maybe a free agent could be signed in the off-season; maybe some money could be free’d up. But something happened in recent months: Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis have proven they can’t pitch; Jeremy Bonderman’s question mark is larger then ever, and Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson may very well pitch themselves into gigantic contracts.
So let’s start at the beginning: 2009’s payroll. I’m basing this all off of cot’s contracts btw… a fantastic site. 2009’s payroll is listed at ~129 million (with Sheffield’s contract), down from ~137 million in 2008. 2010’s contracts currently list Detroit on the hook for 84.5 million… but for only 9 players. Assuming a miracle doesn’t happen, you have to factor another $12 million (or so) for Magglio’s contract, and you’re looking at $99 million for 9 players. Since you normally play with 25, this is a problem. Side Note: Detroit’s current attendance figures show them down ~30% on the year (through 32 home games).
Next, you have to build on this payroll to finish the roster. Arbitration is available to Verlander, Jackson, Thames, Laird, Seay, Santiago, Treanor, Zumaya, and Miner. Here’s where it gets tricky — can you say, right now, that Verlander and Jackson won’t each get $7 million+? Let’s be conservative and say they both get awarded contracts at $6 million. Let’s assume Thames and Laird get slight upgrades (to $3.5 and $3 million, respectively); Santiago goes to $1.5, Seay to $1.5, Zumaya and Miner to $1 mil, and Treanor is not retained. Now you have 17 players (the core of your team) signed for $122.5 million. Also, realize that based on the potential 2010 short stop free agents, Adam Everett has a very good chance at being resigned, but for probably closer to $3 million. $125.5 for 18 players. And you still need 7 players.
Now, lets look at the dead-weight. I don’t believe Detroit will carry Willis and Robertson on the 25 man roster next year. I also am not sure about Carlos Guillen (I’m going to assume they’re stuck with Magglio for now). So out of this $125.5 million, you have $35 million in dead contracts, and that doesn’t include $27.5 million to Bonderman and Ordonez. I think you can safely assume Detroit will be very quiet in the 2009 / 2010 free agent market, though its possible (I can dream) that some of this will be eaten by insurance money. Don’t Uwe Krupp us again, Mr. Illitch.
So what’s my point? Mike Illitch stated he would be willing to do what it takes to get the 2009 Detroit Tigers into the playoffs. I initially thought this was short sighted, since I thought the 2010 Tigers could be a superior team and I didn’t want to see any remaining talent in the minors ravaged for a short term trade. Now, looking at the contracts, I’m nervous that Illitch is willing to take a huge loss in 2009 and might pull back the spending in 2010. The Guillen and Ordonez contracts are serious financial burdens that run through 2011. It will be very interesting to see how Detroit plays their very high-school rich 2009 draft class, many of which have serious options to play a few years in college. Will they spend the money to convince them to sign a contract? Or will Detroit try to play hard ball, further saving costs?
It may be interesting to see how Detroit handles its two major pitchers. If Rick Porcello continues to develop, the Tigers might have the best 1-2-3 punch of any rotation, rivaling Atlanta’s historic trio of Maddux / Glavine / Smoltz (and Avery???). This sounds great, but could Jackson and Verlander command $10 million each in salary arbitration? Can Detroit honestly afford that in 2010? If they can, do they look to move one (in a CC Sabathia / Dan Harden type deal), to land a ton of prospects?
So I watch tonight’s game against the Cubs and see a very flawed team. Holes in the lineup, holes in the bullpen. A roller coaster setup man followed by a roller coaster closer. Don Kelly batting fifth. Little talent in the farm clubs making trades difficult. Yet, they remain in first place. And the idea that, in a short series, Detroit might have an advantage against everyone if they can shorten their rotation to four pitchers. Does management and ownership ride this advantage and possibly sacrifice the 2010 and 2011 seasons?