Tiger Geist

Over the course of the last few months, you can imagine that Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson have been just a teeny bit upset about their run support (or lack thereof).  As a kid, you’d play the “Barry Sanders would get 4000 yards if he ran behind Emmitt Smith’s offensive line” game; you wonder if JV & EJ play a similar game in their head if they had the run support of a Tim Wakefield.  Sometimes you wonder if, as young pitchers, they shake their head and say “Give me a bat and I’ll take care of this myself”.  Well, Rick Porcello got his chance last night, and made the Pirates pay.  Granted, he’s only two years removed from high school, but what are the chances he saw major league quality pitching in high school?  So hats off to Porcello for the victory, the RBI’s, and almost hitting 100 on the pitch count.  If he can keep getting in the upper 90 range for a pitch count, that should help the bullpen over the season.

There’s an interesting twist to the upcoming schedule — some off days.  On Sunday, Detroit will wrap up a brutal stretch starting from June 2 that saw them play 14 games in 13 straight days.  So far, they’re 6-6 during the stretch, with two more to play in Pittsburgh.  The off-day brings an interesting dilema — should Detroit give their rotation an extra day off, or should they skip a start?

I put a 5% chance that Dontrelle Willis would get a decision in his last start;  I was right, but I also thought the start would be a disaster, which it was not.  Not sure what Sunday’s game will have — Dontrelle did pitch pretty well in the National league at one point in his life, and he’s a decent hitter.  Unless its a complete melt-down Sunday, he’ll probably get another start, especially with Bonderman on the shelf for an unknown amount of time.  So Detroit has an off-day on Monday (Verlander’s normal start day), and you assume they just push the entire rotation back a day, with Willis getting another start against Milwaukee at home on the 20th.  JV would then go on Sunday, June 21st, with an off-day following.

Here’s where it gets interesting — does the team skip Willis’ next start?  Verlander could throw again on his normal 4 day rest that friday, starting the Houston series, following Galarraga and skipping Dontrelle in the rotation.  Or they could give the entire rotation an extra day of rest and just pitch all five starters in their normal order.  I’m sure they’ll weigh their options based on the next few starts for Willis.  The upcoming schedule features the following teams with their current win percentages:

St Louis (.532), Milwaukee (.557), Chicago Cubs (.500), Houston (.458), Oakland (.450, though 7-3 on their last 10 games).

Ideally you’d like your best pitchers against some good NL Central teams, but the season isn’t even at the half way mark.  You also wonder if/when they might skip a start for Porcello to keep his innings down, though the way he’s pitching you might let him ride it out for another month.

Hopefully Bonderman can get healthy this year, but you have to wonder what Detroit can expect from him in 2009.  This might make the decision to go after a bat that much harder — teams will want pitching in return, and Detroit may not have it to give up.  I’m a little disappointed that Ryan Perry didn’t get some time in Toledo to work on his control a little more;  i thought a 10 day stint focusing on his pitches would have been really good for him.

Overall, the longer that Detroit can hide Willis in the rotation and hide Robertson in the bullpen, the more remarkable their stint in first place becomes.

Big series with Pittsburgh?  Not because of the hockey rivalry, but because Pittsburgh isn’t a great team — and just traded one of its best players to Atlanta.  Its a good time to win some games against what should be an inferior opponent.  The White Sox series was really interesting — Detroit won the series 3-2, all close games.  This is what Detroit needs to — win against division opponents.  Honestly, I was very worried going into that series, so I feel winning three out of five was a giant step forward.

Don Kelly was promoted, Clete Thomas demoted.  Obviously a huge surprise, but not one without justification — Clete needs some more work on his swing (which got ‘long’, according to Tom Gage), and Kelly provides a hot bat (albeit at AAA), speed (14 stolen bases on 17 attempts), and versatility (OF/1B).

I’m fine with the move — if Detroit is missing a bat, Clete wasn’t helping.  It might be a good time to see if Kelly is a major leaguer or a AAAA player.  If Kelly plays well and provides some speed, it could spell the end of Josh Anderson if Clete heats up in Toledo.  Or, I could be reading too much into this — ideally, we have no idea how Miguel Cabrera is feeling.  Minus the Zumaya error on the bunt play Thursday (which I thought Ryan Raburn was out of position and ultimately caused Zumaya to misjudge where to toss the ball), Raburn seems to have played a pretty good first base.  But how good can we honestly think Raburn could get at first base (with a week of training) when an athletic Carlos Guillen couldn’t seem to grasp the position?  With Raburn and Kelly, they have more versatility for double-switches and matchups for pinch-hitting.  Don Kelly also has two first names, which is always fun.

Matt Joyce was demoted yesterday (via Buster Olney);  interesting how they mention his need to work on his defensive skills.  He was touted as a plus-defender with power when he was traded.  Or, it could just be a sign how difficult playing defense inside a dome can be — if thats the case, I’m not sure how playing outdoors in Durham will help.

This whole “Raul Ibanez vs a blogger” thing is really bothersome.  If you’re not familiar with it, a blogger wrote this post that brings up reasons on Raul Ibanez’s hot start to 2009.  The post got picked up through many feeds; Ibanez took offense.  Now everyone is talking, and it led to this espn interview.

I think ESPN did a really poor job on this one.  First, its obvious the kid is overmatched by the other two panelists (John Gonzalez and Ken Rosenthal); he has no chance.  Its also obvious the writers had a big beef with bloggers, and seemed to attack bloggers’ ethics more then the actual article in question.  So why did ESPN let it become a ‘lets teach this kid a lesson’?  I don’t know.  What further bothers me is that ESPN’s poster boy for new media, Bill Simmons, wrote a VERY SIMILAR ARTICLE in espn the magazine’s last issue.  Simmon’s goes a step further, bringing up not only steroid speculation, but birth certificate forgery for Big Papi.  As the more talented writer, Simmons turns the article into a fan’s love of a player as they decline, where the midwestsportsfans guy just left it as speculation.  Why didn’t espn put Bill Simmons on the discussion panel for this outside the lines interview?  What type of lesson were they trying to teach?  It just wasn’t a fair fight.  Interestingly, Simmons has long been against the mainstream media himself.

So I think ESPN botched their OTL segment;  i think the writers looked foolish for bashing on some kid; i’m not sure what purpose it all served.  In an article that helped bring a lot of this to light, John Gonzalez has an interesting point about being careful for calling out players who have never tested positive.  I find it interesting that he has no problem laying it on Manny Ramirez at the end of the article, who apparently is fair game.

I do have a problem when the mainstream baseball writers seem to think its ok for league officials and the players union to run the enhancement cleaning unquestioned.  ”you can think it, but you can’t write it”.  Buster Olney has been very expressive in this area, in stating that he and other writers missed the boat in the early 90′s.  After the Manny Ramirez resurgence / contract renewal frenzy, followed by Manny’s positive test, sometimes I do wonder if the writers aren’t missing the boat again.  ”We all thought it at the time but couldn’t say it”.  Understood.  I also think the players union will ultimately have to release the results of the 2003 tests to put a lot of this to rest (though maybe not all of it), which they would never do.  So there will always be questions, fair or not.

In the end, Raul Ibanez has a point about credibility.  And as a reader / sports fan, you can figure out what’s credible and what isn’t credible.  I hope… I mean, some people still think Elvis is still alive.

Not exactly the tale of two games, but it was an interesting day of Tiger baseball.  Lots of random thoughts this evening:

• If Ryan Raburn is competent at first base, Detroit has found a way to fit in another power corner outfield bat, if they can find one.  Raburn fits into the new “speed and defense” mold and can provide some late inning defense or pinch-running if necessary that Jeff Larish can’t provide.  I’m not giving up on Larish yet, but 2009 may not be the year he helps the Tigers out.
• I think Bonderman spoiled his own return.  Doesn’t look like we’ll have an answer to the rotation quite yet.
• Zach Miner pitched only 2 innings tonight, throwing 21 pitches.  Not sure if this was a product of warming up so early in the game (getting the first call in the first inning) or if Leyland isn’t hopefully about Dontrelle’s start tomorrow.
• Jim Price is an awful play by play man.  I wouldn’t say the Tiger’s radio announcers are great to begin with, but listening to the nightcap (sans Dickerson) was downright painful.
• Were you aware that Jim Leyland didn’t know what he was going to get with Bonderman?  You would be aware of that if you were listening to the radio broadcast, where they mentioned that after every hard hit ball.  You may also be aware that there were a lot of hard hit balls off of Bonderman.  Do the math.
• Dane Sardinha is 30th of 32 american league catchers in caught stealing percentage (minimum 50 innings).   Gerald Laird is second.  There are many things that make a good catcher;  it just seems the areas that can actually be measured don’t sit in Sardinha’s favor.
• Compared to Matt Treanor, Dane Sardinha’s stats are an upgrade.  As a backup tandem, their numbers are downright awful.
• Gerald Laird reminds me of Ernie Sims;  he always seems to be getting nicked by a foul ball or a random flying bat and you’re always worried he’s injured.
• If Magglio’s arm isn’t great, why don’t they move him to left field?  He played left in the WBC (with Bobby Abreu playing right).  Maybe I’m missing something here.
• I was impressed by Galarraga battling to a high pitch count and keeping the bullpen rested;  he seemed to settle down pretty well after a long first inning.
• I like Bobby Seay blowing a pitch (unintentionally) by Jim Thome’s chin and then fighting back for the strikeout.
• Adam Everett is hitting over his head.  Not sure how much longer he can keep this up, but quite the surprise.

I was a huge Ryan Raburn fan.  One of my first posts was actually describing how Raburn should be the starting third baseman for Detroit in 2008, based on how Brandon Inge was overpaid and his stats plummeted in 2007.  Not my best work, and i’m guessing if Inge ever meets me he’ll punch me in the face.

Then, Raburn had a rough beginning to his 2009 stint with the Tigers.  I was done with him.

Yesterday’s game… Raburn brought me back.

I’m happy Thames got two hits, I’m glad the rest of the team hit well, I love Clete’s slam… but the game was Raburn’s.  For a guy who could be optioned back to Toledo at a moment’s notice (anyone else notice that we don’t have a true backup first baseman?), Raburn pulled out a gutsy play at the plate.  I re-watched it a few times last night, and I found it interesting that you can’t even see Gene Lamont motion to go home.  Raburn just takes off, and then a BEAUTIFUL slide.  Yes I love me some good sliding; i’m not a fan of the basic “lets try to kill the guy at the plate” deal, but what a slide!

To top it off, Raburn picks up a first baseman mitt and finishes the game for Cabrera (granted that happened earlier in the game).

I don’t know what will happen this evening;  I think Leyland is playing with fire by not giving Cabrera a few days off.  I’m surprised Raburn is still on the team with Thames’ return and Cabrera’s limp; its quite possible that Mike Hessman is sitting in Chicago right now in case he’s needed in the nightcap.  But to tie the game with 2 outs in the bottom of the eighth, Raburn goes from the shithouse to the penthouse.  Detroit needed a win.

UPDATE:

After the first game of the double header, call I can say is… Ryan Raburn is the most exciting Tiger when he’s on third base.  Granted, Josh Anderson is the most likely to attempt to steal home, but after the sign screw-up today, I’m never leaving the room if Raburn is on third.  I don’t know what happened, but when Sardinha swung away on an apparent squeeze play, Raburn had to go back to third, tag up, and then run home.  I can’t imagine the amount of fear generated when you’re running towards home and the batter doesn’t square around…

What a frustrating loss;  I can’t imagine having to sit through that ninth inning at the stadium.  When Detroit couldn’t score Magglio or Laird from second with no outs in the fifth and sixth, respectively, they seemed doomed.  And they were.

Jim Leyland’s MO has been to bring in the closer in the top of the ninth in a tied game; I’d probably have gone with Zumaya.  Zumaya has a better chance of going two innings, and Detroit hadn’t shown any ability (or desire) to score a run all game.  Then again, with Cabrera available but hobbled (and would obviously require a pinch runner), maybe Leyland knew he had a short bench and a long game wasn’t in the cards.

Links of interest:

• Jason Beck thinks that Magglio has turned it around.  Lynn Henning thinks Magglio is done.  Obviously one was written before last night’s game and one was written after, so not exactly a point / counter point.  I did think that Henning was much more direct in the previously mentioned Detroit Tiger Podcast.
• Rod Allen mentioned that Miguel Cabrera is a good first ball hitter.  He’s right;  Cabrera is hitting .514 when he hits the first pitch (as of June 5).  I had to check since Rod did a good job of covering his tracks as to whether he was stating a fact or not.
• I also like how Rod mentioned that the Angels aren’t afraid to swing on 3-0, right after Torii Hunter swung on a 3-0 pitch.  NO FEAR!
• Last, the Spot Starters talk about the release of Jaime Walker by Baltimore.  Walker signed a three year deal with Baltimore after the magical 2006 season; Detroit reportedly only was willing to offer a one year deal.  Compared to today’s current issues with the pitching staff and their monster contracts, not offering a longer deal to Walker was a brilliant move by Dombrowski.  He quickly countered that move by making 6 awful ones.

This whole boston series was a debacle.  It pretty much pointed out the flaws of the team — namely, what happens when Verlander and Jackson don’t pitch in a series.  I’m slightly angry (perturbed??) at the outcome of the series; how excited can you be about a first place team that doesn’t seem like it can do any damage in the playoffs?  Granted, if this were the playoffs, the rotation would have been re-arranged and they probably go with four pitchers.  But they’re about to hit a rough stretch of games, and if pitchers 3 through 5 can’t cut it, its going to be a long summer.

And wow… Lynn Henning really lit it up on the detroit tiger podcast yesterday.  A scathing review of the current roster, and the difficult decision that lay in the month ahead.  Difficult?  Not really, just EXPENSIVE.  Most interesting to me is that Lynn thinks these moves will happen — instead of the general “Magglio is struggling, he’s going to hurt the team in the future with payroll”, Henning basically says “Magglio is done, they need to cut him now”.  I don’t disagree, but it was extremely surprising to hear someone closer to the team actually make that statement.  And Henning doesn’t beat around the bush, some great commentary in under 20 minutes.  His commentary on Comerica Park is equally surprising, though I don’t disagree.

I still need to add up the carnage of what Henning implied would/should happen to the roster in terms of dollars.  I’m intrigued by the Ordonez contract, in terms of, if Magglio was cut/DFA’d and someone else picked him up, and he were to have enough plate appearances, is Detroit on the hook for his contract escalators?  Generally speaking, this is a really rough stretch of the season and something has to be done.  But how does Dave Dombrowski approach Mike Illitch?  “Mr. Illitch, I know things are tight, and that whole ‘stanley cup thing’ is drawing some of your attention… BUT…..”

Other thoughts:

• I’m standing by my statement that Dontrelle should have retired after his first victory of the season.  Its not going to end well.
• If you had a matrix drawn up of Zach Miner’s strengths and weaknesses, we can pretty much cross off anything except “decent starting pitcher”.  Even in long relief he’s solid, except he seems incapable of cleaning up the mess of the starting pitcher.  There is a lot of talk about Miner’s approach to hitters, but there seems to be little talk of “hey, lets cater to this guy’s strength which seems to be starting”.  Its called ‘putting someone in a position to succeed’.  So far this is one of Leyland’s most bizarre decisions on the year.
• Talking about the backup catcher situation is boring.  But when you have to pinch hit for a guy (Sardinha) with another guy (Laird) who’s only hitting .230, you have a problem.
• Laird also doesn’t appear to be much of a pinch hitter, going 0-4 this year with an RBI.  He’s a career .200 hitter as a pinch hitter.
• A lot has been made about Nate Robertson spending his winters in the Detroit area.  I have a feeling he’ll find a warmer climate to reside in come November.

And finally… Comerica Park has been named by PETA as the 7th most vegetarian-friendly ballpark.  So at least they have that going for them.  Which is nice.

Two areas Detroit will have to figure out in the near future:  Starting rotation and the outfield.  No one expected either decision to drag on for this long, but injuries to Bonderman, Guillen, and Thames seemed to take longer then expected.

In terms of the outfield, I was of the opinion that Thames a goner.  Now I’m not so sure; the speedy and defensive outfielders (Anderson, Raburn, Thomas) won’t show a ton of power; its not their game.  Unless Magglio turns it on (he’s slowly raised his average to .280, but the power numbers haven’t returned), they need a power hitter.  Thames fills this role.  However, Thames has a small contract and is only signed through this season;  he’s the most expendable.

Guillen is another question mark.  His power numbers have been declining (as has his body)… he’s a questionable threat to hit 20 home runs again.  But he is owed a ton of money.

There is also the discussion of adding another bat;  Corey Hart (no not that corey hart) has been discussed.  He seems like a similar player to Thames, with better speed and (I’m guessing) better defensively.  Based on his numbers, he almost looks like… a right handed Matt Joyce.  But what would Detroit have to give up for Hart, probably as a rental player for 2009?  I’m also nervous about Hart having to switch leagues in the middle of the season.

So Thames gives the team the pop they lack, but not the defensive play they’ve leaned on all year.  Guillen is locked into a contract that likely won’t be eaten, though his return is in doubt (all star break?).  Detroit might make a move for another outfield bat, I get it.

So what do they do with the existing outfield?  Raburn is the odd man out;  he’ll be in AAA once Thames returns.  Josh Anderson and Clete Thomas have made their impression on this team and they aren’t going anywhere; neither is Magglio.  So who’s left?

I’m starting to think Carlos Guillen might be on his way back to backup at first and third; Jeff Larish might be the odd man out.  I imagine Detroit would rather shelve Guillen (give him spot starts and let him DH) and see what he can do when he’s healthy in 2010 then just eat his contract.  Jeff Larish has options available and could return to dominate AAA pitchers until they can makeover the roster next year; or he could be used as trade bait.  I don’t like it, but I can’t see how, assuming Guillen returns this year, Detroit can do anything else.

I’m in MI (since Saturday) and I’ve noticed that my posts decrease the more I actually talk with friends and family about the Tigers.  Its been a heavy Detroit sports weekend, and for good reason (Go Wings!).

The Baltimore series was maddening, as Detroit either 1) is in a slump offensively or 2) just aren’t a great offensive team.  I think it might be a combination of the two, but if they continue to pitch and play defense, it might be enough to make the playoffs.  If the hitting does come around, they have a chance to be really good.

In terms of their pitching, if Verlander and Jackson really are this good, they honestly can send almost anyone else out there on days 3 through 5 and they’ll be in the division hunt.  The fact that their other pitchers are pretty good, it will help make up for the offense.  Seriously, these two guys are pitching over their heads.  Porcello has been great; Galarraga was really good in April, and Willis is Willis.  Consider they can throw Bonderman or Miner into the rotation is a sign of strength.  I also think its a sign that if a move is to be made for a bat, it’ll involve a starting pitcher.

Its been a nice off day (from both baseball and hockey) to collect my thoughts.  Last week’s losses were so maddening, you felt like pulling your hair out.  The victories were exciting and helped even the Baltimore series.  Boston tomorrow night, and thats when you see how Detroit stacks up against the big boys.