Tiger Geist

Billfer was nice enough to invite me to join a Tigers trade – live chat today at 2pm – 4pm EST.  Feel free to join in!

Just to throw it out there:

The speculation that George Mitchell was not fair during his infamous Mitchell Report has been rampant due to one reason:  The lack of any major Boston Red Sox players listed in the report.  Mitchell, a former senator, was  the director of the Boston Red Sox at the time of investigation.

Now, since the report excluded two of the biggest stars from the 2004 Red Sox team, the controversy over the report, those who wrote it, and those who commissioned it, will never end.

Bill Simmons’ buddy Jacko has been mentioning this on nearly every podcast they do together for the last two years (the convenient lack of Red Sox players in the report), and Simmons has basically acknowledged he’s just waiting for the day that this would happen.  Their next podcast will be entertaining.

Couple of thoughts:

1) This can’t be good for the next labor negotiation.

2)  I’m still trying to figure out why the league is so intent on putting the screws to Pete Rose.  It seems like this might be the greatest distraction the Bud Selig can do to stop (some of) the discussion over steroids… re-admit Pete Rose and force the veteran’s committee to vote him in.  At this point, the list of douchebags who play or have played baseball is growing by the day;  the fact that Rose may be the biggest douchebag shouldn’t restrict him from entry.

Cliff Lee to Philly — the second time in two years that Cleveland has traded the previous AL Cy Young award winner the year after they won the award.  Combine those two trades (CC Sabathia last year, Lee this year), Ryan Garko to the Giants, and the probable trade of Victor Martinez, and you wonder:  Is Cleveland reloading for a run in 2010 (or more likely, 2011)?  Reports seem positive on what Cleveland got from Philadelphia, though I wonder how ‘awesome’ they can be when Philly traded prospects for Joe Blanton last year, and didn’t touch their reported top two or three prospects in their current system for Lee.

The fire-sale in Cleveland is interesting — reportedly Cleveland wanted to hold onto Lee (and possibly Martinez) for a run at 2010.  That obviously is out the door at this point, and the rumor is ‘shed payroll’.  I have no idea if Detroit makes a move, but I really don’t think detroit has the cash to take on salary.  Then again, there are enough buyers right now (who would have thought Seattle would be buying?) that the asking price for prospects is just too great, and/or maybe Detroit doesn’t have the goods in the farm system.

At the moment, it really appears that acquiring ‘a bat’ won’t solve anything in Detroit:  As a whole, they hit together and slump together.  To continue their run at the playoffs, the Tigers need to hit better as a team;  yes, a left handed corner outfielder would improve the club, but one improved player alone won’t turn things around.  Let’s compare two players to discuss this:

You may recognize Player B as Detroit’s All-star center fielder Curtis Granderson.  Player A?  2006′s Tiger #7/#8 hitter Craig Monroe (through a similar number of plate appearances as Granderson through July 28, 2009 — Monroe’s stats extend him to late August, 2006).  Remember that Monroe (a right handed hitter) faced right handed pitchers 74% of the time in 2006, while Granderson (a left handed hitter) has faced right handed pitchers in 75% of his plate appearances in 2009.  In essence… Craig Monroe’s 2006 season was more difficult and nearly as impressive as Granderson’s 2009 campaign.  And with that, you see why Detroit is more then a bat away from securing their playoff spot.  One of their best players in 2009 is playing as well as their #7 / #8 hitter in 2006, when Detroit limped into a wild card spot.  Trade or no trade, the entire lineup needs to step up.

Last… if it wasn’t for the whole stanley cup fiasco, i’d almost feel bad for the fans of Pittsburgh.  What a giant F-U the Pirates gave their fans this week by moving Sanchez and Wilson.

A nice article about Rick Knapp this morning.  Knapp deserves it, and he should take the praise while he can — all Tiger fans could be calling for his head in two years.  So far, so good.

I didn’t realize Knapp pitched at Virginia Tech in 1982 and 1983; apparently he went to Towson State in 1981 (found in this article).  Quickly, I remembered another Detroit personality who played baseball for the Hokies — Drew Lane.

Over the years I’ve been a huge fan of the Drew and Mike show, and was sad to see it leave the air a few years ago.  When it was announced in late June that Drew was returning to the show, I had no less then 35 people email me the article; one person emailed it twice after ‘forgetting’ he sent it out.  So I know its a big deal in Detroit, and I’m happy for their return.

So, I’ve spent the last three hours researching the rosters of Virginia Tech baseball from the early 80′s to see if there was any possible overlap between the two players.  Know what?  The internet blows for college baseball players pre-1999.  Even sites that list players that were drafted seem to miss Knapp’s name half the time.

Once I uncovered that Knapp and Lane are about two years apart in age (Knapp listed as 47 in the freep article, Lane’s age mentioned in this WXYZ clip – he’s 49), I dug deep into google and Vtech’s digital library to see any matches between their names, any old rosters… nothing.  No pictures at the Vtech digital photo archive under either name, and apparently no team photos (though i could be blocked).  Nothing on Hokie Sports.  I’ve even enlisted a VTech alumni to help dig this up, but I have little faith.  While everyone talks about Drew’s time on the baseball team (and the WXYZ clip flashes pictures), I can’t find any record of it.  Not surprising, since its really hard to find any record of Knapp except that he was actually drafted.

So, there you go… a whole lot of nothing conclusive.  Drew’s been back on the air for about two weeks, and I’m not sure if he’s mentioned anything about knowing Knapp or about any overlap;  I’d love to hear comments if anyone has heard them.  Please fill me in!  Apologies if this has been covered in-depth by anyone else… the internet knows nothing.  Even if they haven’t played together, they must have missed each other by a year or two at most.  This should make for some good radio during the pennant race (even if its nearly impossible for me to listen to due to their early start times).

(More random note:  I live about three blocks from where Ray and Pete used to live, if you remember Drew and Mike’s fascination with their old recordings in the late 90′s.)

The bat’s haven’t exactly woken up yet, but Swingtown relates to the swing in excitement level for the team today vs the feeling after last thursday’s loss.  What a difference a few victories against a division rival (and a few losses by another rival), extending your first place lead, will make to the fanbase.  Detroit is a better team at home and they have a home-slanted schedule for the rest of the year.  This should be a good thing.

Let’s look at other areas that have ‘swung’ in Detroit’s favor:

Ryan Perry:  Lights out since his return to Detroit.  His time in Toledo was hit or miss it appears, but two solid (and multiple inning) appearances should make fans breathe easier.  Going from Zumaya’s breakdown and injury to Perry is a surprise.

Fernando Rodney:  Has not completely sucked; been downright effective.  He didn’t screw up his non-save situation (even Jason Beck is twittering about his splits these days)

Starting pitching:  Verlander’s complete game helped, but they’re shortening the games for the bullpen.  Jackson’s Jackson:  Awesome.  Galarraga has been solid, Lucas French continues to surprise.  We’ll see today if Porcello’s issues in his last start were in fact due to rust.

And, of course, Carlos Guillen:  Can’t say enough about him;  having such a big impact in only three games is totally unexpected.  He could drop a goose-egg for the rest of the year, but here’s to being optimistic.

Other discussions:

Moves:  Something about Dave Dombrowski’s recent interview caught my eye;  he talks about how there are 10 relief pitching prospects ready for the majors in the next year or so in the organization (and Billfer tries to count them out).  I don’t know why DD had to mention it at all;  I wonder if any trade that Detroit might be made might involve a reliever?  Maybe he’s trying to ‘sell’ the idea of moving a 25-man roster pitcher to the fans without making them think Detroit is in a selling mode?

Most likely to move would be Zach Miner (remember him?  He used to pitch once in a while).  For teams that need pitching and can’t take on payroll (Looking at you, Texas) he’s a cheap option.  There is no secret that Jim Leyland doesn’t seem to like Miner, and his comments about Eddie Bonine may indicate that Leyland thinks Bonine’s ready for a major league role (one that is currently filled by Miner).  I’ve always liked Miner a lot, but my fondness hasn’t seemed to help Zach out much.  I had thoughts that Brandon Lyon would be available, but the back end of the bullpen isn’t something you want to fill with rookies (Perry and now Casey Fien).  Even if Zumaya returns soon, the team needs to protect itself from any further injury.

Lynn Henning:  Two good articles this week that I (mostly) agree with.  First, the Tigers are getting great fan support and are putting on a great show.  He mentions possible more ‘staycations’ as a reason for fan support; I think it could also be new fans (the 8-10 year old crowd) that weren’t old enough to enjoy the 2006 season.  Get ‘em while they’re young.  Also, Henning hints at Detroit not wanting to touch the Magglio contract situation during the season.  This is an excellent point:  Whether or not the option is triggered, there will probably be a grievance filed.  If Detroit keeps Magglio on the roster for the rest of the season, the legal action will happen in the off-season, not during the penant race.  Less discussions, less distractions.  Let the legal guys deal with the legal issues, let the ball players play ball.  And let the legal guys deal with it while the ball players are on vacation.

Magical number 15:  66 games remaining; Magglio needs to start in 52 of them to trigger the 2010 option.  This platoon thing might be Detrot’s best move of the year.

Backup Catcher:  J Ellet wrote about Laird’s struggles and the reluctance of Jim Leyland to use Dusty Ryan.  It got me thinking about backup catching as a whole — should rookies be your backup catcher on a playoff team?  Rod Allen mentioned during Friday’s broadcast about how hard it is for a rookie to hit when he only plays once or twice a week; and based on how much Ryan has been used lately (coupled with Laird’s poor batting average) you wonder who Leyland has confidence in.  Last night Leyland showed he has enough confidence in Ryan to pinch-hit Thames for Laird in the bottom of the ninth, allowing Ryan to catch the unpredictable Fernando Rodney in extra innings.  So maybe we have our answer on Leyland’s comfort level with Ryan.

Inge’s knees:  Sounds like he’ll limp through the rest of the season.  My only concern is him over-compensating for his knees and hurting his shoulder, etc.  I don’t know if its enough to reach out and grab a backup third baseman, but in the search for a bat, if Detroit can get a corner outfielder / third baseman, it wouldn’t hurt.  Raburn is a capable backup, but not insurance against a real injury.  Remember that whole “the home run derby doesn’t screw with your swing” argument?  Maybe, with the info on Inge’s knees, that was a bad idea in general?

Read this blog posting from the SF Chronicle.  Sounds like Detroit called but didn’t have the goods.  This makes sense, as Oakland is lacking in bat prospects — it probably would have taken at least Wilkin Ramirez and Ryan Strieby to pull this one off, and maybe another player.  If a Rick Porcello or a Ryan Perry-type pitcher was Detroit’s best bargaining chip, well, Oakland doesn’t need more young pitching, so the Cardinals win.  Keith Law mentions that Oakland probably got a better deal (ESPN insider only) in return then they gave up for Holliday in the first place.

So, we’ll see what else Detroit has up their sleeve.  Marco Scutaro?  He did have the best chant among fans in Oakland (similar to a “Marco Polo” chant).

Now that we’re getting close to the trade deadline, we need to hope that Dave Dombrowski makes a move that would indicate a ‘win’ for Detroit, or at least a ‘win’ for both teams involved.  Lately, DD made a couple of wins (Armando Galarraga for some guy who got cut a month later, Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce), and what appears to be a huge miss (some pitcher in Atlanta for some short stop now in San Francisco).  The biggest ‘win’ that didn’t happen this year — Dombrowski’s refusal to trade Jeff Larish and Matt Joyce to Seattle for JJ Putz last winter.

Assuming Putz was healthy, it would have been a decent trade based on how (for 2009) neither Larish nor Joyce have turned out.  With the ‘emergence’ of Fernando Rodney and the stability Brandon Lyon seem to have brought to the back end of the bullpen, you could argue the Putz trade wasn’t necessary.  Add in the fact that Joyce was traded straight up for Edwin Jackson, I put this as a ‘win’ for Detroit not allowing the Putz trade to happen.  With the lack of depth/injury issues in Detroit’s starting rotation, you could move this to a ‘huge win’ for a non-trade.

In that respect, Bill Simmons is arguing (via twitter) that Boston has ‘lost’ on a non-trade with Cleveland.  He feels the reluctance of Boston to trade Clay Buchholz for Victor Martinez will come back to haunt the Red Sox.

So, with the trade deadline, as fans we’re all hoping the Tigers pull of a big ‘win’ in terms of an actual trade.  Let’s hope they also pull off some ‘wins’ in choosing what is a good or bad trade offer, and not jeopardizing future teams.

This isn’t good news, but Brandon Inge is apparently human and has lots o’ pain in both knees.  Tonight that means Ryan Raburn gets his first start at third this year (his sixth position in 2009, if you include DH).  Now the debate can begin (due to Inge’s injury):

Does Carlos Guillen make a return as a left fielder AND a backup third baseman?  Or does it possibly open up a spot for Jeff Larish to get some at-bats if Detroit can’t trade for a left handed bat?

Honestly, i don’t know.  I agree with Billfer, no idea why Josh Anderson has gotten so much playing time, unless he’s being showcased to be moved.  I imagine there is a good chance that JA is DFA’d, giving Detroit 10 days to trade him or release him once they get Guillen back – 10 days that line up pretty well for the July 31 trading deadline.  It appears that Raburn’s job is secure due to his backup infield positions, and Guillen’s shoulder may keep him from playing the infield anyway.  Or is third base easier on your shoulder?  It seems Guillen’s best position is the old softball “rover” position (the random dude you play when you have 10 fielders, kind of a deep shortstop); his knees/back keep him out of the infield, and his shoulder is keeping him from playing left field.  So rover it is.

For Larish, his playing time may only come as a September call-up, unless Detroit wants his bat before September 1 (and would make him playoff-roster eligible).  While Larish’s average is decent (.279), he’s had a surprising lack of power in his return to Toledo.

A generic heading for a generic victory.  Note to the rest of the major league teams:  Don’t throw a left handed pitcher who can’t hit 90 mph and struggles with control.  DETROIT WILL EAT HIM ALIVE.  Seattle threw someone who wasn’t their top two pitchers, Detroit countered with someone who wasn’t their top two pitchers, and Detroit held on for what should have been an easy victory.  A win is a win.

If Detroit wins the series and beats either Hernandez or Washburn, it would be a good showing.  A series victory at home against a playoff contender — thats what you look for.  It would have been better to win one of those games in New York, but in reality, Detroit is chasing one thing and one thing only:  90 wins.  Not the White Sox, not the Twins, 90 wins.  That’s a .577 win rate for the rest of the year.

The New York series proved Detroit’s starting pitching can pitch with anyone and shorten a game.  You have to be cautious, however, since Rodney was not needed in the series.  The playoffs always seem to be close games with scrutiny on the bullpen.  Rodney vs Mariano Rivera?

Interesting rundown of facts and links:

• 2 — otherwise known as the number of home runs hit in the last calendar year by Carlos Guillen.  This is Detroit’s hot new bat?
• 8 — number of games the Tigers are now back in the wild-card standings.  Its the division or bust at this point.
• Shaq is doing a TV show, playing other sports.  His baseball foe will be Albert Pujols.  Yes I will watch this.
• Maybe I need to dust off my Wii.  Or, maybe the Padres need to invest in a better strength and conditioning coach.
• I dig the new detnews.com iphone / mobile site.  But this might bury them if it comes to Detroit.
• Really like Kurt’s article yesterday;  Detroit has something other teams need (cheap pitching in Porcello, but also arbitration-controlled Verlander and Jackson) and other teams have what Detroit needs (minor league prospects / cheap talent).  Who wants to play match maker?
• For some reason, it feels like Miguel Cabrera is having a very quite season, even though he’s hitting .330 and clubbing a decent amount of home runs.  Is 2011 the year where he just blows up like Albert Pujols?

Pretty frustrating weekend series for Detroit.  Everyone will now clamor for a bat; sure sounds like Detroit could use one quickly.  Zumaya will be out for an unknown amount of time.  But this might affect any move Detroit can make.

If you’re looking at the 2010 team, Detroit was heavily counting on Joel Zumaya as either a setup man or a potential closer.  The hope, of course, was that Zumaya would get through 2009 injury free and effective.  In the last month or two, Joel has not been overly effective.  Now he’s injured.  Again.  The only hope on the situation was that he gave up a home run after he was injured;  nope:

Zumaya said he felt a “pop” in his shoulder on the 33rd of his 36 pitches in Friday’s night game. He’d already given up the three-run home run to Mark Teixeira that was the deciding hit in the Yankees’ 5-3 victory — but after that, Zumaya ran into bases-loaded trouble.

The Tiger bullpen are most likely losing two pitchers in the off-season – Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon.  Now Detroit can’t count on Zumaya (fool me once, shame on me.. fool me four times…).  We can assume Detroit will not be big spenders in the off-season; they may have to focus on filling up to three bullpen slots internally.

Second, I noticed the Pirates GM name-dropped Adam Everett in reasons why the Pirates were basically low-balling Jack Wilson on a contract extension.  This makes me think Adam Everett’s price tag will raise above his $1million 2009 contract, and why his agent’s phone will be quite busy this off-season.

Third, Placido Polanco will most likely not be on the team in 2010 as he’ll probably get a multi-year deal elsewhere.

So we already have a weak economic outlook for payroll expansion in 2010, two bullpen slots to fill, possibly the middle infield to replenish… and little confidence in Joel Zumaya (possibly a third bullpen slot and no real closer).  Thats quite a laundry list of issues going into 2010.  What could Detroit possibly ship to another team to return a bat without jeopardizing the next couple of years?  And would any excess talent in an over-loaded position (Jeff Larish?) be better used as trade bait filling roster spots in the off-season?

Help us Carlos Guillen.. you’re our only hope.  Godspeed Guillen.  Godspeed.

Last, a really good read on the NFL anti-trust lawsuit and the possible impact on all sports.  You just never know.