Tiger Geist

Most discussions around a Tigers trade assumes Detroit will have to move prospects to get a player ready to help in 2009.  But is that their only available move?  Taking that thought further, are there moves with 25-man roster players that Detroit could make that would improve their club in the future, without hurting their chances at a playoff run this year?  There is always the “draft vs free agent” argument, where sometimes its in a team’s best interest to keep a player, offer him arbitration, hope he declines it, and get some sort of draft pick in return.  At the moment, I’m not going to explore those options in depth right now, and look more at trade value.

I’m going to throw some names out there; let the discussion begin.

1) Placido Polanco.  He’s had a down year, and in the last year of his contract.  He’s due just under $3mil for the rest of the year, and I really think he would do well with a return to the NL for the stretch run.  Two teams making playoff runs that need a second baseman?  Milwaukee and San Francisco(via Buster Olney, as the Giants are looking at Freddy Sanchez).

Replacement options?  This one is the easiest — Detroit just moves Ramon Santiago into the starting lineup at second.  The downside is Detroit is already worried that Santiago and Adam Everett might slow down as the season goes on.  Will Rhymes would most likely be promoted for his glove and speed, but strictly as a backup in Detroit.  All signs are pointing to Scott Sizemore taking control of second base in 2010 anyway; you could see Detroit pushing for a one year extension for Polanco, but Polanco probably has another two year deal in him.  Brent Dlugach would be the darkhorse promotion.

Chances this happens?  50%.  I think Polanco is the most attractive of Detroit 25-man roster players to playoff teams, but I’m not sure Detroit wants to move such a steady defensive presence during a pennant race.  If they can get a solid bullpen arm, however, I wouldn’t rule this out, since I feel its the move to have the least impact on the team.  Though as strikeouts have been racking up lately on the team, putting the ball in play is one of Polanco’s strengths.  Also a possible post-waiver trade deadline move.

Benefit to Polanco:  He most likely would shine in the NL and grab a decent 2 or 3 year deal in the off-season.  He signed such a Tiger-friendly deal back in 2005 that even he has to be shaking his head as he looks around the clubhouse on payday.

2) Ramon Santiago.  His versatility (playing almost all infield positions, plus being a switch hitter) would make him very attractive.  Throw his name in the hat among many NL teams, and even the AL in a few situations.  Very inexpensive, arbitration controlled.

Replacement options?  Few.  I don’t know if Brent Dlugach can play second; Detroit doesn’t really have any other backup shortstop options.

Chances this happens?  I’d say slim to none.  Santiago is cheap, and teams don’t have a lot of payroll flexibility.  I also assume that Santiago fits into Detroit’s 2010 plans.  With Detroit having so many outfield / infielder combinations, Santiago is a nice backup that Leyland likes to have around.

Benefit to Santiago:  Maybe gets a shot at a starter’s contract.

3) Brandon Lyon.  Former NL closer (though he lost his job in 2008), seems to have settled in pretty well as a setup-type arm.  Could be a chance an NL team wants him as a closer; doubtful he’d be dealt to an AL team.  He has under $3mil owed to him for the rest of the year; free agent after that.

Replacement options?  Much tougher for a direct replacement.  Most likely Detroit would have to decide that Bobby Seay is no longer a left handed specialist and would have to take a more active role in the late innings (not that he hasn’t done that already in 2009).  So you might be looking at a cheap FA pickup or a Clay Rapada / Lucas French to replace Seay.  Doubtful that you’d see a bullpen with a combo of Dolsi, Perry and Fien to make a playoff run.

Chances it happens?  Actually I could see this one happening for the right price.  Especially as a combo to taking on more salary with a trade involving a bat.  One instance where Detroit could just let Lyon walk if the other team takes the salary, otherwise Detroit could eat Lyon’s salary and get a prospect of sorts.

Benefit to Lyon:  No idea, don’t really care.  A one year rental who probably wouldn’t want to be back in Detroit in 2010, and Detroit probably wouldn’t re-sign him.  Its possible that Detroit would be afraid of offering arbitration in case Lyon actually takes it (you offer arbitration at a minimum of 80% of the previous year’s salary).

4) Fernando Rodney.  Cheap, an unrestricted free agent after this year who will be looking to score a huge deal.  Done quite well this year (well is a relative term).  Would be a decent closer and probably an excellent setup man.  Detroit probably won’t try to re-sign him anyway.  Most likely draft pick implications if Detroit keeps him for the year.

Replacement options?  Zumaya or Lyon.  Zumaya is a great option if he didn’t walk so many batters this year; Lyon would be serviceable if he didn’t hang so many off-speed pitches.  Darkhorse in Bobby Seay.

Chances it happens?  Rodney’s really cheap and he’s had pretty solid numbers as  a closer — compared to the top closers in the league, he is among the lowest in home runs allowed, which is the opposite of the closer’s best friend.  As it seems Zumaya isn’t ready for the closer’s role, I don’t see this happening, unless Detroit is really out of it at the trade deadline.  Unlike other players, Rodney probably won’t pass through waivers due to his very inexpensive contract (for a top closer, he’s making $2.7mil this year)

Benefit for Rodney:  None.  Someone will overpay him either way in 2010.  Its possible that whatever team he’s on, including Detroit, he’ll get the K-Rod treatment this year — that is, run him out there until he looks more like Robb Nenn.  Unless Rodney has a trade kicker, he’s probably better off staying with Detroit.

5) Zach Miner.  As teams need starting pitchers, if they’re willing to pay for Miner (who’s cheap and controlled by arbitration for a few years), if Detroit doesn’t see him as a starter, its a possible move.

Replacement options?  Hard to say.  Maybe Eddie Bonine?  Lucas French?  Detroit probably doesn’t have a long reliever / spot starter in their system with major league experience.

Chances it happens?  Probably not likely.  With the recent bullpen struggles of Zumaya and Perry, its not certain Detroit can actually move Miner out of the bullpen, whether it be for the fifth starter’s spot or to another team.  If Joel Zumaya stops walking batters or giving up home runs, and the Ryan Perry spot returns in some form (either with Perry or Dolsi or Fien taking it over), its a possibility if Detroit can get great prospects back.  Texas seems like a possible destination with a solid farm system.  With injuries to Robertson, Bonderman, and ?Willis?, no sure-thing starters ready for next year in the farm system, Detroit will have to be careful trading starting pitching.

Benefit for Miner:  High if it makes him a starting pitcher.  Maybe high either way — Leyland doesn’t like Miner as a starter, Miner seems to think he’s a starter.  Leyland just signed a contract extension.. maybe the writing is on the wall for Zach anyway.

6) Adam Everett.  Cheap, defensive veteran who can play solid defense and sacrifice runners; this year also swinging a solid bat.

Replacement options?  Um… Ramon Santiago.  Maybe Brent Dlugach.  It seems more and more likely that Detroit might want Everett back in 2010 due to a lack of options at short in the farm system.

Chances it happens?  Only if Boston is interested and they give up some pitching.  In other words… not happening.

Benefit for Everett:  If he’s traded to Boston, sky’s the limit.  Potential ring, maybe a bigger contract in 2010.

If Detroit still thinks its in contention in late July (or even mid August), I see the most viable candidates to move on to be Polanco and Lyon.  As much as I’d hate to see Placido go, if you could swing a Jonathan Sanchez out of a deal, you take it.

Last, Joe D & I talked briefly last week about somehow trading for Matt Holiday.  At this point, I’d rather take any of Oakland’s left handed starters if I could get them in Detroit.  Minnesota’s going to be a tough team in the second half of the season.