Tiger Geist

The SF Giants extended second baseman Freddy Sanchez yesterday, signing him to a 2 year, $12 million contract (paying $6mil annually).  The Giants traded valuable pitching prospect Tim Alderson for Sanchez at the trading deadline, and held an $8 million team option.  This deal wipes out that option and Sanchez has his two year deal starting this spring.

A couple of aspects affect Detroit, who by all accounts would love to have Placido Polanco back on a one year deal.  First, it takes away one potential free agent second baseman (and a two time all star) off the market.  Second, it takes away a potential landing spot for Polanco.  Third, it sets the value of an all-star caliber second baseman at about $6million / year, which is about a 30% raise over what Polanco’s made last year (with all Dombrowski’s crappy contracts in the last few years, he doesn’t get nearly enough credit for this one – both the Urbina trade and contract extension).

I tend to think a $12mil / 2 year or $15 mil / 3 year deal is what Polanco would be looking on the free agent market, and the Sanchez re-signing semi-confirms this.  Why semi?  I’m not sure how much of the contract was based on San Francisco trying to justify trading one of their top prospects.  Brian Sabean didn’t want a rental player, but probably didn’t want to pick up the $8 million option for Sanchez either.  In the court of public opinion (and Sabean is not exactly a fan favorite in San Francisco lately), Freddy Sanchez and his agent had all the leverage.  So its quite possible that Sabean and the Giants overpaid again for Sanchez to guarantee they get value out of the Alderson trade.

The other question is, who’s the better player?  Over the last four years, their offensive numbers are nearly identical, and even favor Polanco (less strikeouts, more walks).  Their fielding is both excellent, but again favors Polanco.  Factor in the… decent size difference in pitching quality between the two leagues — Sanchez playing entirely in the NL for a very bad team, Polanco in the AL where the Tigers were a factor in three pennant races — its a big big win for Polanco.  The biggest downside is age:  in the spring, Sanchez will be 33; Polanco 35.

In the ‘new baseball’ era, where players don’t improve after turning 39, I bet Polanco’s age will work against him and Sanchez’s contract is probably the ceiling this off-season.  Maybe he elects for slightly less per year on a three year deal, but the smart money would be to take a big two year deal now.  Add it all up, and Polanco’s re-signing with Detroit is getting less and less likely.

Today is the 20th anniversary of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake.  For most persons who don’t (or didn’t) live in the bay area (or south in Santa Cruz), its known as the earthquake that stopped the world series.  If you were not in the aforementioned areas, if you were watching the game at 5:04pm PST on ABC with Al Michaels, this is what you saw:

After moving to SF, its been interesting to ask the ‘locals’ what they were doing when the quake happened.  My memory is turning on the TV, expecting to see the first inning but (having missed the opening of the telecast and the actual quake) instead the first images I saw were the players on the field, trying to find their families.

This photo gallery from the SF Chronicle has a lot of damage photos, but also of the baseball players in Candlestick park — check out Jose Canseco’s wife’s outfit.  My favorite is this one of Joe DiMaggio, not at the game but waiting with the rest of the families from the Marina District who could not return to their homes for a number of days.

I haven’t been paying a lot of attention to the baseball playoff broadcasts lately, but hopefully they touch on this significant event in memory.  Its odd that how, for me, this event has shifted from a strictly baseball memory to more personal.  Tonight I’m heading to dinner with family that are in town in the same area that DiMaggio’s picture was taken.

NOTE:  Notice the terrible call at second on the video?

It was a big discussion at the end of the season about how Fox Sports Detroit’s best night ever (for a Tigers broadcast) was a Sept 30 victory over Minnesota, with a rating of 15.6 (peaking at 19.6).  That’s fantastic.  What’s more surprising is this article from Mike O’Hara that the lowly Detroit Lions impressively out-drew the Tigers on the Tiger’s make or break last game of the regular season.

There are a lot of reasons to dissect this one…

• Are local sports fans bigger Lions fans and therefore, given a choice, they would rather watch football?
• Was Verlander’s dominant performance enough reason for fans to switch over early?
• Is the season too long and some fans just felt like the Tigers blew it?
• Maybe some persons were upset at the Miguel Cabrera snafu?
• Some Tiger fans are big Chicago Bears fans?

With everything that was made of the 15.6 rating, the fact that the Lions outdrew the Tigers on such an important day blows my mind.  I will say that I’ve heard and read in the national media (during the last head coach search, concluding with the Jim Schwartz hire) that Detroit is in fact a football town… the idea that whatever football coach could turn around the Lions would be king.  I think this theory might have some legs.

Once the emotional run is over, Dave Dombrowski has to sit down and think about 2010; that might even happen today.  Plenty of numbers to go through, not the least of which will be some number of a ‘budget’ from Mike Ilitch.  The second biggest number will probably be the season ticket and box suite renewals.  Here’s what we know so far:

2009 Detroit Tigers:  86 – (76+1); 2nd place AL Central.  12 game improvement over 2008.

Attendance:  2,567,165.  ~20% decline from 2008.

Current 2010 payroll obligations (major league team):  ~$99million.

Unrestricted Free Agents:  Brandon Lyon, Placido Polanco, Fernando Rodney, Adam Everett, Aubrey Huff, Jarrod Washburn

Restricted (Arbitration eligible) Free Agents:  Justin Verlander, Gerald Laird, Marcus Thames, Edwin Jackson, Bobby Seay, Ramon Santiago, Matt Treanor, Joel Zumaya, Zach Miner

There will be a ton of discussion among the free agents.  Couple of things that Dombrowski is probably mulling over:

1. Verlander’s arbitration years.  Will DD buy him out?
2. A middle infield with two rookies (supplanted with Ramon Santiago) must scare Jim Leyland to death.
3. “The Economy” is an annoying topic.  But will it affect a player’s desire to take a one year deal (hoping for a better 2011) instead of a longer term deal this winter?
4. What value can Detroit leverage to get better?  How much better will the AL Central get?

Plenty of dates on the horizon for Dombrowski to actually make decisions (Rule 5 Draft, GM Winter meetings, free agent deadlines).  Plenty of discussions for Tiger management and ownership to have.  Plenty of details for fans to hash out.  But today.. the numbers above are all we know.  As Kurt tweeted today, its too early to start worrying about the rest of it.  Management moves pretty fast.  As fans, sometimes we just need some time to decompress.

The one-game playoff turned into an extremely entertaining game, and probably more entertaining if you are a Twins fan.  Near the end, it felt like a fantastic football game — the type of game that you just know the team that had the ball last was going to win.  Detroit was on the road, so it was a huge hill to climb.  It sure seemed the issues Detroit had all year were the same issues that ended the season.  A few points:

• Miguel Cabrera quickly helped his teammates forget they were pissed at him, with a double in the second.  At that point, Cabrera’s weekend blunder became out of mind, out of sight.  Doesn’t mean it changes anyone’s feelings, but he wasn’t a distraction for the rest of the game.
• Ryan Raburn giveth, Ryan Raburn taketh away.  Raburn was Detroit’s best option in left to start the game; live and die by the sword.  Raburn pseudo-makes up for it by keeping the winning run from scoring.
• It sure felt like some pinch-hitting could have been done.  But Detroit’s best hitters started the game (minus maybe Avila over Laird); its not like Leyland had an ace in the hole sitting on the bench.
• In the end, it feels like Aubrey Huff’s contribution to this team was a ball that grazed his uniform.
• Zach Miner is just inconsistent enough to drive you up a wall.  I was surprised at when Porcello was pulled, but had no problem with Miner starting the next inning on his own.
• Leyland ran out of arms.  By the end of the season, all he really had that he trusted was Ni, Seay, Lyon and Rodney.  Not sure where Seay was tonight.  I thought Rodney was outstanding;  Porcello was very good but couldn’t get deep enough into the game to shorten the bullpen (though at only 92 pitches, maybe he got a quick hook).  I don’t know where Leyland turns to if Rodney got out of the 12th.

It is what it is.  I’m sure season recap stuff will be forthcoming.  Heading to Vegas this weekend where I will apparently not be wagering on any Tiger games; I’ll see if there are any interesting lines to report for the world series.

Must be playoff season; for some reason I caught a lot of sports movies on TV last weekend.  I thought it would be fun to take some quotes from the movies I caught parts of and apply them to the Tiger’s 163rd game of the season, and to some other noteworthy news.

“During this fight, I’ve seen a lot of changing, in the way you feel about me, and in the way I feel about you. In here, there were two guys killing each other, but I guess that’s better than twenty million. I guess what I’m trying to say, is that if I can change, and you can change, everybody can change!” — Rocky Balboa, Rocky IV.  To the Detroit Tigers clubhouse sans Miguel Cabrera:  You’re pissed at Miguel, but you’re going to have to get over it.  Miguel is going to have to shape up a little, and you’re going to have to forgive him by 5pm EST Tuesday.

“YOU CAN’T WIN!” – Adrian Balboa, Rocky IV.  Hopefully, to the Minnesota Twins…

“You see? He’s not a machine, he’s a man, he’s a man.” — Duke, Rocky IV.  To the Tiger’s pitching staff, describing Joe Mauer.  Fu-Te Ni may play a prominant role (Nate Robertson was warming up in the ninth inning Sunday;  Bobby Seay’s availability worries me here) but Ni may not get this reference.

“If he dies, he dies.” — Drago, Rocky IV.  To the Metrodome… die a quick death.

“There is no tomorrow! THERE IS NO TOMORROW! THERE IS NO TOMORROW!” — Apollo Creed, Rocky III.  I feel like Big Al.  Just sayin’… the Tigers can’t leave anything on the table.

“The boys are all here for ya, we’ll back you up, we’ll be there, cause, Billy, we don’t stink right now. We’re the best team in baseball, right now, right this minute, because of you. You’re the reason. We’re not gonna screw that up, we’re gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.” — Gus Sinski, For Love of the Game.  To Rick Porcello, on an interesting matchup in his very very young career.  Porcello needs ground ball outs, pitching to contact, and quick innings.  Go deep into the game and shorten Detroit’s bullpen young man.  Key matchup is Detroit’s bullpen vs the Twins;  if Miner is used in the sixth, this might get interesting.  note — I forced myself to watch this f’ing movie again this weekend.  Its worse the second time; there should be an edit that kills the love story.

“Tell them I’m through, “for love of the game”" — Billy Chapel, For Love of the Game.  Nice knowing you Mr Huff and Mr Washburn.  Sounds like Ryan Raburn will get the start over Huff.

“I make the league minimum.” — Jake Taylor, Major League.  To Ryan Raburn and Zach Miner, the cheapest players on Detroit’s roster that might have a deciding impact on Detroit’s playoff chances.  Raburn has to play well to offset the lack of offense recently, and Miner will most likely be called upon to close the gap between Porcello and Lyon/Rodney.

“Family’s important shit, man.” — Steve “lips” Kudlow, The Story of Anvil.  To the Tigers’ clubhouse.  It might be a divided locker room due to some late night incidents recently, but listen to “Lips”. (note:  Solid F’ing movie here; should be on DVD soon, i caught it on VH1 Classic Saturday night)

“But watch out for in your ear” — Shoeless Joe Jackson, Field of Dreams.  To the Tigers batters, just in case Minnesota’s pitching staff haven’t forgotten last week’s closing game.

“All right people, we got 10 minutes ’till game time, let’s all gather ’round. I’m not much for giving inspirational addresses, but I’d just like to point out that every newspaper in the country has picked us to finish last. The local press seems to think that we’d save everyone the time and trouble if we just went out and shot ourselves. Me, I’m for wasting sportswriters’ time. So I figured we ought to hang around for a while and see if we can give ‘em all a nice big shitburger to eat!” — Lou Brown, Major League.  To the Tigers –> The Tigers limped into this one.  Some writers are on record saying this game is the the right to ‘lose to the Yankees’.  Hold your head high and give the Twins all they can handle, and then stick it to the Yankees.  (Lou Brown’s character is one for the ages)

“The only thing we had in common was that she was from Iowa, and I had once heard of Iowa.” – Ray Kinsella, Field of Dreams.  I’m not a soccer fan, so I still love the fact that baseball unites a good part of the world.  We saw it in the WBC, which i’m not excited about.  It should be noted that the WBC pushed back the start of the season at least a week, and I still feel it had a direct affect on Magglio Ordonez’ season (not being able to prepare properly in relation to his age).  It also meant my spring training trip made me miss half of the team.

“You know we just don’t recognize the most significant moments of our lives while they’re happening. Back then I thought, well, there’ll be other days. I didn’t realize that that was the only day.” — Dr Archibald “Moonlight” Graham, Field of Dreams.  To the Detroit Tigers… not to get too heavy, but some of them will never get the chance to get into the playoffs again.  Don’t squander this opportunity.  One victory and you’re in.

“There’s a bunch of cameras out there right now waiting to make a joke of this, Mick. So you can either stop, give them the sound bite, do the dance. Or you can hold your head up and walk by, and the next time we’re in Boston, we’ll go out there and work the wall together. Don’t help them make a joke out of you.” — Billy Chapel, For Love of the Game.  To Miguel Cabrera… its been a tough few days.  Own up and move on.  I can’t comprehend the responsibilities of being a father and husband at age 26, let alone in a town where your family has a language barrier.  THEN add the complexity of your contract and stature as one of the best players in the league… I’m sure the pressure can be stifling.  But mistakes were made, and if you need to change some things, change some things.  You’re going to have a giant bulls-eye on your back from now on.  Don’t let yourself be a joke going forward.

“Good Match”…. “Hey why’d you get so crazy on me out there?”…. “Thats the name of the game”.  Thunderlips / Rocky Balboa / Thunderlips exchange, Rocky III.  To Ron Gardenhire… who I absolutely love and I want him to bear my children.  He plays the game hard, expects his players to play hard.. and at the end of the day owns up for his mistakes or his player’s mistakes.  I would love to root for his team… if he managed for the Tigers.  (Note:  my favorite part of Rocky III by far is the charity boxing / wresting match.  Hulk Hogan nails this; rest of the movie has become fluff to me outside of the ‘ultimate male vs the ultimate meatball’ part).

“Well, Rock, let’s put it this way. Now, three years ago you was supernatural. You was hard and you was nasty and you had this cast-iron jaw but then the worst thing happened to you, that could happen to any fighter. You got civilized. But don’t worry kid. You know, presidents retire, horses retire, Man-o-war retired. They put him out to stud. That’s what you should’ve done, retired.” – Mickey, Rocky III.  I worked on this all weekend, and I couldn’t believe such an appropriate quote for Magglio came up while I was watching clips of this movie.  In 2006, Magglio hit the most famous post-season home run for Detroit since Kirk Gibson (my idol growing up).  For most of this year, Magglio seemed washed up.  Now?  Detroit probably doesn’t make the playoffs without his second half hitting.  Listening live to “this week in detroit tigers baseball‘ on Sunday, many of the panelists thought that if Detroit had a shot at this game, Magglio was the guy to deliver the knock-out punch.

So there you go.  My prediction?  Um… I’ll go 5-4 Tigers.  Porcello with the win, Rodney the save.  I have nothing to base this on.  If Detroit wins, they’re already short handed against the Yankees because they can’t fully utilize their best weapon in Justin Verlander.  But I’m heading to Vegas on Friday and will probably lose my ass on future games either way.  I’ll end on this… Detroit has plenty of distractions going into this game.  Its probably in their best interest to get over them (or ignore them) for the next few days.  Its one glorious day.  Go Tigers!

I’m slightly torn about the ‘Miguel Cabrera incident’, if you will.  To recap from many articles I’ve seen:

• Miguel was out late drinking with white sox buddies Friday night
• Miguel’s wife got pissy at him
• Something happened to Cabrera’s face
• Cabrera went to the police station, was given a breath test, and blew a pretty impressive number.
• Cabrera went 0-4 on Saturday night, leaving six runners on base.

Couple of interesting points here.  On one side, it appears Miguel’s performance was affected by his late night drinking.  On the other side.. he’s human, plenty of people drink too much, get put into the dog house by their significant other, and have to deal with the consequences.  We hold athletes to a higher standard because they make a ton of money.  If Detroit had clinched the playoffs on Thursday, this might be less of a story.  Actually, if Detroit beat Minnesota last Thursday, this is a no-story. Timing is everything.

Honestly, I’m quite impressed he ‘blew’ a .26.  THAT’s impressive.  And that’s assuming he was probably 30 – 60 minutes from his last drink.  Quite the night out I’d say.

Here’s the question:  What is the Tiger’s responsibility in this?  Was it deemed that Cabrera was fit to start Saturday night?  Was it a “a hung over Cabrera is better then Ryan Raburn or Carlos Guillen at first” decision?  The Tigers obviously knew that Miguel was obliterated only 13 hours before the game.  I’m not suggesting that Detroit had a responsibility to monitor their player’s whereabouts between games, but doesn’t it say something about their lineup that they didn’t even think of sitting Cabrera out?

In terms of an apology to the fans, I guess he owes us one.  But it really doesn’t matter — what’s done is done, whether or not Miguel’s sorry for what he did.  If the Tigers win on Tuesday, most will be forgotten.  Miguel could say, in a room full of reporters, “you know what?  I did what I did and I’ll do it again.  I love scotch.  Scotch scotch scotch.  Here it goes down, down in my belly”.  If the Tigers win on Tuesday, and win a series against the Yankees, and if Cabrera is a big part of those wins, he could pull a Mel Gibson and fans will still flock to buy his jersey.  So an apology doesn’t bother me, and in six months it won’t bother most fans either.  Detroit is one win shy of the playoffs… out of 162 game season.  This incident didn’t kill the season.  Fans have forgiven the players in terms of steroids, player strikes (remember they canceled a world series?), and other crazy stories before.  This isn’t much different.  Just bad timing.

I don’t condone what Cabrera did.  I honestly feel bad for athletes who are at the top of the world, in the prime of their lives, but can’t enjoy the same things that their fans can.  Its an odd situation.  If I was 26 and went out for an entire night like that, i’m sure i’d catch hell when I got home. But what a night it would have been.

UPDATE:  I should be clear, I’m totally fine with fans being outraged.  I’m actually surprised that I’m not.

In a suddenly surprising situation, the Detroit Tigers go into the last ‘regular season’ game of the season one victory shy of the playoffs.

There isn’t much to say.  It comes down to one game after 161 in early October;  in reality, any game in May could have been the deciding factor.  But that doesn’t matter now.  Sunday does.

Justin Verlander goes up for Detroit.  Someone not named Justin Verlander goes up for the White Sox.  Detroit will send up some lineup for a victory.  Detroit has a flawed lineup, which has been very noticeable in the last month of the season.  Whether or not Detroit wins Sunday (and / or wins Tuesday to get into the playoffs) doesn’t change the fact that Detroit has a flawed lineup.  Detroit can win Sunday and a playoff game vs Minnesota on Tuesday, sweep both american league opponents in the playoffs AND win the world series and it won’t change the fact that the Tigers have a flawed lineup.

What’s my point?  Not making the playoffs or winning the world series doesn’t change this team;  it just changes Tiger fans’ perception of the team.  Whether Detroit loses Sunday, or against the Yankees in the ALDS, or against some team in the ALCS, or in the world series, let’s not get too worked up about it.  Its been a great ride for the year, a ride I hope gets ‘extended’ Sunday.

I’m excited about what this team can do.  But let’s not get carried away with what it may not be able to do.

Which one of these headlines that I read today is truly the most outrageous?

1. Ted William’s head abuse at facility
2. First time a drag persona sings the national anthem at a major league baseball game
3. Two Tigers, no Twins suspended after Thursday’s baseball game

As crazy as #1 and #2 sound, I’m going with door #3.  Seriously, its like the league’s discipline office isn’t even trying anymore.  Maybe its hard to try to understand when players are ‘sending a message’ vs ‘not getting a grip on the ball’ when a batter is hit.  But when Rod Gardenhire hands you Jose Mijares’s head on a platter, how can you ignore this?

How’s this for a plot twist.. Nate Robertson can deliver the knock-out blow against the (hated?) division rival this afternoon, sending Detroit into the playoffs.  Of course, a loss doesn’t really hurt, but a win would be huge – rest the starting pitching, rest Brandon Inge’s knees, save heart-attack inducing moments from fans.  And much maligned Nate Robertson is on the mound for Detroit.

Godspeed Nate Robertson.