Tiger Geist

The SF Giants extended second baseman Freddy Sanchez yesterday, signing him to a 2 year, $12 million contract (paying $6mil annually).  The Giants traded valuable pitching prospect Tim Alderson for Sanchez at the trading deadline, and held an $8 million team option.  This deal wipes out that option and Sanchez has his two year deal starting this spring.

A couple of aspects affect Detroit, who by all accounts would love to have Placido Polanco back on a one year deal.  First, it takes away one potential free agent second baseman (and a two time all star) off the market.  Second, it takes away a potential landing spot for Polanco.  Third, it sets the value of an all-star caliber second baseman at about $6million / year, which is about a 30% raise over what Polanco’s made last year (with all Dombrowski’s crappy contracts in the last few years, he doesn’t get nearly enough credit for this one – both the Urbina trade and contract extension).

I tend to think a $12mil / 2 year or $15 mil / 3 year deal is what Polanco would be looking on the free agent market, and the Sanchez re-signing semi-confirms this.  Why semi?  I’m not sure how much of the contract was based on San Francisco trying to justify trading one of their top prospects.  Brian Sabean didn’t want a rental player, but probably didn’t want to pick up the $8 million option for Sanchez either.  In the court of public opinion (and Sabean is not exactly a fan favorite in San Francisco lately), Freddy Sanchez and his agent had all the leverage.  So its quite possible that Sabean and the Giants overpaid again for Sanchez to guarantee they get value out of the Alderson trade.

The other question is, who’s the better player?  Over the last four years, their offensive numbers are nearly identical, and even favor Polanco (less strikeouts, more walks).  Their fielding is both excellent, but again favors Polanco.  Factor in the… decent size difference in pitching quality between the two leagues — Sanchez playing entirely in the NL for a very bad team, Polanco in the AL where the Tigers were a factor in three pennant races — its a big big win for Polanco.  The biggest downside is age:  in the spring, Sanchez will be 33; Polanco 35.

In the ‘new baseball’ era, where players don’t improve after turning 39, I bet Polanco’s age will work against him and Sanchez’s contract is probably the ceiling this off-season.  Maybe he elects for slightly less per year on a three year deal, but the smart money would be to take a big two year deal now.  Add it all up, and Polanco’s re-signing with Detroit is getting less and less likely.