Tiger Geist

UPDATE:  Roy Halladay apparently is getting traded.  I’ll have a new post once we get full details on the trade to discuss how this relates back to Detroit.

Mike at Tigers by the Numbers asked an important question, namely, Is it time to trade Justin Verlander?  Its an interesting discussion point in the wake of the Curtis Granderson / Edwin Jackson trade.  Namely, Detroit’s return from the trade was three pitchers and a position player;  would Verlander allow Detroit to re-stock their farm system that seems lacking stud position players?

My position is no.  But part of my take on the Granderson trade was the hope that it positioned Detroit to sign Verlander to a long term deal.  If Detroit is unable to extend Verlander (either by their choice or JV’s choice), he’ll probably be moved by the trading deadline in 2011.  But let’s explore why Detroit shouldn’t move him assuming they could sign him.

First, trades don’t always work out.  When you have the best player at their position, you almost never get full value.  Minnesota had the best pitcher in Johan Santana, but were couldn’t get full value for him (though injury rumors surely didn’t help).  Oakland, on the other hand, has done a wonderful job getting talent for players they either couldn’t afford or felt they could sell high on (Mark Mulder, Dan Haren, Tim Hudson, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Huston Street).  Yet Oakland has struggled; their trades have not put them in a position for long term success.  The trades looked great on paper, however.  What worked best for Oakland was they drafted Mulder, Hudson, Zito, Chavez, Tejada (technically signed as a FA and not drafted), and Giambi.  That was the basis for their multi-year run, though their 2006 team was aided by the Mulder to St Louis for Dan Haren + prospects trade.  (Side Note:  its been stated that as interesting as “Moneyball” is, any strategy in Oakland would have been successful as long as they had the power trio of Hudson, Mulder and Zito).  As Mike mentions, the best hope probably is the 2002 Bartolo Colon trade.

In the Colon deal, Cleveland got a tremendous return package.  However, it was two full seasons before Cliff Lee delivered, three seasons before Grady Sizemore was an everyday player… and four seasons of waiting on Brandon Phillips.  A great return, but quite a while before results.  Can Detroit take a gamble that might payoff in 2013?

While Justin Verlander is cheaper and controlled longer then Roy Halladay, he isn’t Roy Halladay, and that’s what teams want.  Philadelphia wants Halladay, but they still haven’t pulled the trigger.  Maybe Verlander continues his evolution into one of the game’s top pitchers, but I don’t know if he’ll demand a top return this winter.

Last, Detroit’s in a great position to field a competitive team over the next few years, a chance to compete without going into rebuilding mode.  They have a truly special talent in Miguel Cabrera.  They’ve been able to manipulate the draft by over-slotting players other teams were afraid they couldn’t sign.  And Justin Verlander could anchor a pitching staff as a true #1 pitcher, one that most teams lack.  He has a power pitcher body and the proper mechanics to stay healthy (don’t you think the Giants are just a little nervous to give a long term contract to Tim Lincecum and his tiny frame?).  Convincing Justin Verlander to sign an extension before February 2011 should be Detroit’s main focus.