Tiger Geist

I started thinking the other day about what is the best way to handle Justin Verlander in the case of a possible rebuilding year.  The discussion was incomplete, because Roy Halladay was being shopped, but hadn’t found a new home.  That changed this week.

The more I spend analyzing the trade that was made, the more I talk myself into each team’s reasoning for doing it.  But I’m not interested in winners and losers since none of the teams involved are in the central division OR are the hated Red Sox or Yankees.  But it did finalize my thoughts on Justin Verlander and what Detroit should do with him.

The Verdict?  Keep him.

Verlander should be a Tiger, no questions asked, until June of 2011.  If Detroit isn’t competing, move him to a team that is willing to overpay.  If not, keep him and try to re-sign or get their draft pick.  If JV is agreeable to Detroit’s terms, sign him to an extension after the 2010 season.  Those are the best options.

Why?  Well, the trade pointed out a few things, as did the John Lackey signing.  Detroit can get a tremendous value on a top-ten pitcher for two more years.  Verlander should make less then half of the following pitchers:  Johan Santana; AJ Burnett; CC Sabathia; Roy Halladay; Barry Zito; Jake Peavy; Mark Buehrle; John Lackey.  In addition, (Assuming there is no long term contract signed), in 2009 alone Verlander will make less then the following pitchers:  Oliver Perez; Francisco Rodriguez; Josh Beckett; Daisuke Matsuzaka; Gil Meche; Zach Greinke; Dan Haren; Brandon Webb; Brad Lidge; Cliff Lee; Cole Hamel; Jaime Moyer; Joe Blanton (rumored at $8mil).. oh, and Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, and Nate Robertson.

If Verlander were to move to $7 million this year (doubling last year’s salary) and then $10million in 2011, he’s still a bargain.

An interesting quote from Jayson Stark on the blue jays caught my eye:

They had the best pitcher in baseball on their payroll for the past eight years — and never played one postseason game. They were the wrong team in the wrong division in the wrong era.

This is why holding onto Verlander makes so much sense:  as of December 2009, there is no reason to think that any central division team has a serious advantage over another team.  They all have flaws.  Most have moderate payrolls.  Verlander is becoming a guy no one wants to face; someone fans come to the ballpark to see (as previously stated, I will never miss another Verlander game when I’m in the vicinity).

In terms of prospects, I’m always nervous.  Each prospect in today’s Lee / Halladay trade has a downside; each team in the majors has a corner outfielder prospect they’re willing to move, or an infielder that seems too fat to lack mobility for their position.  Once 2011 rolls around, maybe then we can talk prospects.  But over-playing your hand like Toronto did last summer didn’t work out in their favor — while ESPN loved reporting that it was in team’s best interest to trade for Halladay and get two pennant races out of him, the teams didn’t seem to agree.

There you have it.  Verlander stays until Detroit can’t afford him, at which point Detroit listens for offers in mid 2011.