Tiger Geist

Its very difficult to get a grasp on what happened in baseball in the last decade;  Barry Bonds & friends blew up what everyone thought they knew.  I’ve put together a few ideas on changes that I believe will happen in baseball over the next decade.

1) Overall defense will improve.  Buster Olney’s recent ESPN magazine article hits on how defensive metrics are becoming more commonplace;  teams can quantify the value of a Brandon Inge.  As being a better defender may lead to a bigger paycheck, more emphasis will be placed in this area.  Soon the idea of a 2009 Gary Sheffield playing in the national league will be obsolete.

2) New managers will bring new strategies.  In the same way the spread offense and the zone read option have fundamentally changed college football, new ideas by younger managers will be tried out in the next 5-10 years.  The old regime of baseball managers will be replaced by more stat-based managers, or guys who grew up playing video games.  What does Pittsburgh have to lose?

3) The baseball draft will be completely over-hauled.  I imagine a mix of both the NBA-style slotting system, as well as an NHL-style “draft a player and let them develop in college”.  This will include the international drafting system, or lack thereof.  Players will soon realize that the less money wasted in the draft is more money in their pockets.

4) Someone will begin to fiddle with statistics around injuries and the disabled list, and further derive the value of their potential players; the new Moneyball will be in the medical field.  There will be enough data to finally figure out the nature vs nurture.. er.. pitch count discussion.

5) Instant replay will work and work well… eventually.  Getting there will test fan’s patience for at least 5 years.

6) HDTV + ticket costs + concession costs + parking costs + the pace of the game != ticket sales.  Small market teams with new stadiums are going to struggle filling seats and selling suites…  for a while.  I’m not sure this is a merely recession issue.