Tiger Geist

Not a huge surprise with the Johnny Damon signing, Jason Beck reports Ryan Raburn will play multiple positions this spring.  Don Kelly’s left handed bat and multi-position skill set will get a run for its money.  The twist here is Kelly is a solid defender with average (albeit left handed) bat; Raburn appears to be the opposite.  I feel Raburn could be a better outfielder if he were able to focus strictly on it, but that won’t happen in 2010.

Couple thoughts here:

• Raburn is probably best at second base on the infield;  he had a few poor games at third and Leyland didn’t see the point of resting an obviously hurting (with his knees and his bat) Brandon Inge in favor of Raburn late in the season.
• Its quite early, but Jason Beck also talks about Leyland’s love of the young outfield talent.  Is this a hint that Raburn’s long term future with the club is not a permanent outfield slot?
• Would Detroit be truly comfortable with a Tony Phillips style role for Raburn, or is will he be actively shopped before the season begins?
• Where are his at-bats?  He’s not playing center… in fact, he’s only played 126 innings in center over the last three seasons.  Pinch hitting?  The more I hear the San Francisco media complaining that the Giants have no offense, the more I’m talking myself into Raburn not being a Tiger for long.  A very interesting spring battle.
• I’m not sold on Austin Jackson yet, and I wonder what Clete Thomas has in store.  Remember that Thomas wasn’t cleared to throw until midway through last spring due to elbow surgery in 2008; is he better with a full off-season?

On a pseudo-related note:

I always thought moving to first would be super easy… but as fans we saw how hard of a time Carlos Guillen has had in his transition.  Eric Chavez is making that same adjustment this year.  From Oakland coach Mike Gallego:

“The biggest instinct he has to get rid of going from third to first is reacting to the ball first – he can’t. He has to react to the bag. You don’t want to have him standing there, cheering his buddy making a play, and then going, ‘Oh, shoot, the ball is coming to me.’ “

I’m sure Oakland would love Chavez’s first reaction to be towards the field, and not the disabled list this year.

While the opening day starters are pretty much set in stone (assuming Johnny Damon doesn’t have a hang nail), let’s discuss how nervous we might be if a Tiger pulled a hamstring in camp, and was unavailable to play until mid-May.  I’ll group them in three categories.  The idea here is about breaking camp and the comfort level fans have of a replacement player; Wilkin Ramirez could hit .450 this spring and we still don’t know how he’ll play in April.  Bobby Seay’s shoulder soreness brings what was a theoretical discussion closer to reality…

Anxiety Attack division

• Justin Verlander.  There is a lot of pitching depth, but also a lot of #4 starters on the roster.  This works when you have a #1 starter; without a losing streak stopper you’re digging yourself out of a hole by the all-star break.  Also, with his new contract, no one wants Verlander to rush himself back into action with poor mechanics.
• Brandon Inge.  Detroit doesn’t have a third base prospect that can field or hit with power like Inge.  Actually they don’t have a third base prospect.  This might necessitate a trade or scrap-heap signing…. or worse, a shuffle of either Carlos Guillen or Ryan Raburn to third.  Neither is very good defensively here, though I assume we’ll see Guillen as an emergency backup infielder soon.  Its possible that a replacement hits and fields worse then Inge, on a team that may have problems playing defense and scoring runs.
• Zach Miner.  This one surprised me, but the more I thought about it, the more this loss would stress the bullpen.  First out of the bullpen, innings eater… Ryan Perry?  Joel Zumaya?  Left handed pitcher?  Perry might be the most capable, but was up and down in 2009.  You still want to monitor Zumaya’s workload if possible.  Does Jim Leyland go against his gut desire for matchups and let a left hander get four to six outs?  Miner bridges bullpen roles, and can a youngster (Perry) or a displaced starter (Galarraga) get that job done?
• Dontrelle Willis.  Here’s where I have an anxiety attack:  What if Willis pitches lights-out in the spring?  What does Detroit do?  Does anyone think it’ll last?

S^2 == Shakes and Sweats division

• Miguel Cabrera.  I’m conflicted here;  Cabrera is the team’s best player, so losing him for any amount of time is a huge concern.  However, Detroit has a decent short-term backup in Jeff Larish.  Larish bats left-handed (to further balance the offense), will give you quality at-bats with power, and knows first base well enough to lessen the concern of rookie Scott Sizemore at second.  The bigger concern is the lack of a true backup first baseman if Cabrera goes day to day with a leg injury.  Compared with other positions, Detroit does have options at first.  While he sounds like he can hit, Ryan Strieby won’t break camp with the big team, and pairing him with another rookie defensively would be bad.
• Gerald Laird.  I imagine Detroit can find more can’t hit but solid defensive catchers, and they probably have three in camp.  But Laird handles a tough pitching staff and is excellent at throwing out base runners.  I’m not really sure what Alex Avila will do offensively if pressed into full service, but it will probably be an upgrade over the 2009 Gerald Laird.  With a full camp for Avila (and Mike Rabelo and Robinzon Diaz), I could be talked into downgrading this.
• Jose Valverde.  This is a pure management/front office decision;  the Tigers felt they needed to spend a lot of money and forfeit a draft pick for a closer.  If Valverde can’t go, I would assume the Tigers are back to a position where they didn’t want to find themselves.
• Scott Sizemore.  When you’re counting on a rookie to start, there isn’t much hope that a capable minor league backup exists.  Ramon Santiago is the obvious fill-in here, but Detroit loses their utility man.  See Everett, Adam below for managerial concerns.  However, Sizemore is expected to hit, and Santiago can’t replace Sizemore’s bat.
• Left-handed Starter.  This is entirely based on when the injury occurs.  Detroit would love to have at least one left handed starter.  Assuming Dontrelle Willis isn’t ready… if Nate Robertson has the inside track on the fifth starter job but hurts his back lifting luggage on the way back to Detroit, the Tigers won’t have sufficient time to stretch out a Phil Coke.  Even if both Jeremy Bonderman and Armando Galarraga pitch well, five right-handed starters is a bit much.  If Dontrelle and Robertson both break a bone in their feet while we’re in February, this may not be a concern.  Doomsday thought… without injury, no one is confident that any of the potential left-handed starters will have decent years.

Cool as a Cucumber division

• Adam Everett.  If Everett, an above average fielder who bats ninth, doesn’t break camp, Detroit will replace him with a prospect who will be an above average fielder and bats ninth.  In fact, there’s a chance his replacement would outhit Everett.  Two concerns — 1) pairing a rookie double play combo, and 2) the chance that Jim Leyland overuses Ramon Santiago to cover this position.  Its hard to get nervous about a position Detroit has barely paid money for in 2009 and 2010.
• Insert_outfielder_name_here.  With the Damon signing, Detroit has capable backups at the corners with Carlos Guillen (well, as capable as they were as of Valentine’s day) and Ryan Raburn.  Center field is a toss up as is, between Austin Jackson and Clete Thomas.  An injury to Damon screws up the batting order, and an injury to Magglio helps the 2011 payroll.  This doesn’t even cover the young guys; an outfield injury can be absorbed.
• Left-handed-reliever.  Detroit has tons of them, though losing Bobby Seay in the first weekend of camp isn’t a good sign.  It would be hard to imagine Detroit signing ANOTHER left hander to the roster, but one guy with a sore shoulder and another guy who was in Korea last year isn’t awe-inspiring.

Final thoughts:

The answer to a lot of these injuries seems to be “Brent Dlugach” or “Don Kelly”.  Kelly doesn’t excite anyone but is versatile;  I like Dlugach for no other reason then I can finally spell his name without constantly looking it up.  Damon’s signing bolsters the backup outfielders to a respectable level, and the team’s all-star player is blocking some decent talent.  The real concern is Verlander, mentally and physically a unique player.

What I’ll be watching for this spring:

1)  How does Gerald Laird want his career to turn out?  An above average to excellent defender, or as a balanced baseball player?  Laird was so bad offensively in 2009 that Detroit went through three backup catchers trying to improve the position.  As much flak Brandon Inge has received in the past, at least he took giant strides to improving his hitting by adjusting his swing in the winter and spring of 2009.  What will Laird do to improve himself?  Contract year, and he may have a hard time reaching his current salary of $4million without an increase in offensive production.

2) Brandon Inge is in his contract year, coming off a serious injury, and detroit has a serious lack of depth at third.  Will Detroit make a move, or shift a player?  What about shortstop, where Adam Everett signed another one year offer in the off-season.  Does Brent Dlugach switch positions to third, or does Detroit keep him at short in Toledo?  Does Detroit have anyone close to major league ready in case of injuries to the left side of the infield?

3) How long will Detroit play the Dontrelle Willis charade?  As Jason Beck mentions, Phil Coke may not get a shot at starting since there are only so many innings in the spring.  So what is Detroit’s move?  Keep Willis until final cut-down, hoping for an physical injury…. hope for an injury settlement due to his anxiety disorder, or cut him hoping to recoup $400k if another team picks Willis up?  There is no way Willis goes north on the 25 man roster.  When will Detroit man up to that fact?

4) Detroit’s young outfield.  How will guys like Wilkin Ramirez, Casper Wells, Brennan Boesch play this spring?  Will they further push Carlos Guillen?  What kind of battle will Ryan Raburn and Clete Thomas put up, on a team that may only have room for one of them?  I’m still not ready to hand the centerfield job to Austin Jackson.

5) Is there any swagger to the Tigers?  Does anyone step up in the clubhouse?  This one might be hard for a fan to figure out.  Maybe this is a reason the Tigers are so big on Johnny Damon… there is no clubhouse leader.  I had always this pegged this on Carlos Guillen or Gerald Laird, but there isn’t one.  How do we know?  If Detroit had a strong clubhouse leader… Miguel Cabrera would never have played his fateful game late last season.  The front office whiffed on their chance to bench Cabrera… Jim Leyland whiffed on his chance… and the players didn’t do anything about it.  Would Derek Jeter or Paul O’Neill have allowed Cabrera to play?  Not a chance.

Quick shot as I try to solidify my spring training trip in mid-March.

• Johnny Damon… still not a Tiger.  Its hard to believe anyone who is throwing out numbers since there are so many sources.  Buster Olney’s take reminds me of the movie “Thirteen Days“… essentially Scott Boras is asking for a one and two year deal so he can save face by rejecting the two year deal.  Who knows.  A full write-up will take place if and when Damon signs.
• I wonder how Magglio Ordonez feels about his agent adding another corner outfielder to the team.  Magglio has another giant option year for 2011 that vests with a set amount of plate appearances.  From their recent history, Detroit will honor the option if Magglio earns it.  But you can’t see the team allowing Maggs to slump for the first half of 2010 before they limit his at-bats for someone more productive.
• If Damon does sign a one year deal, Detroit will have great trade value to contending teams for both Adam Everett and Damon.  Based on how some of the younger talent further develops in 2010, this could be an interesting year at the trade deadline.
• Furthering that point, the Tigers currently have 7 players looking at unrestricted free agency in 2011:  Gerald Laird, Brandon Inge, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, Adam Everett, Bobby Seay, and what remains of Dontrelle Willis.  Based on 2009′s strategic off-season moves of arbitration vs testing free agency, there will be a lot of front office evaluations going on.  Inge and Bonderman, coming off injured seasons (or multiple injured seasons), you wonder if there is enough time for either player to make their case early in the year for an extension.  Both will probably take pay cuts in 2011, and whether they want to continue their careers in Detroit might be based on what they’re willing to sign early in the year.
• While many are pointing to ‘everybody wins’ (or as Ray Ratto put it, nobody wins because there was nothing to win) in the Tim Lincecum / SF Giants deal, the CLEAR winner is the Giants.  They get the best pitcher in the national league for two more years at less then $12million / year.  As much as I love Justin Verlander, he might not be the best pitcher in the AL Central over the next two years (Zack Greinke… and possibly Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle).  Of course the Giants still have the corpse of Barry Zito on their payroll for another four years, so maybe its a bittersweet victory.

There’s been a lot of talk about whether Justin Verlander should get a bigger contract then Felix Hernandez.  As you probably have heard, Verlander (apparently) has signed a 5 year, $80million deal with detroit, topping Hernandez’s 5 year, $78 million deal.

The arguments are around who is the better pitcher, and mainly the fact that Felix H is three years younger then Justin V.  On paper, yes, Hernandez deserves a better contract.  But in reality, there was no way he was going to get it.

Why?  Hernandez signed his deal, which bought out his arbitration years, and places him on the free agent market when he’s 28.  Verlander, on the other hand, will be 31… which is not the optimal age for another long term contract.  After the completion of his new contract, Felix might get another 4 or 5 year deal for a massive amount of cash.  In fact, Hernandez could get hurt next year, tear both his shoulder AND his knee, and he has enough time to rehab an establish himself as a 28 year old worth a long term contract.  Verlander, on the other hand, will get his payout from Detroit and hope to get a few more two or three year contracts before he retires.  If he has an injury issue, he’s an ‘older’ player with an injured past.  Thats a huge difference.

So that’s why Justin Verlander was going to get more… because he wasn’t going to sign for less.  Knowing what Boston or New York might pay on the open market, Verlander had the power to hold out until the 2012 off-season and sign a MONSTER deal.  Yet there was still risk in that move, which is why he probably chose to sign a very nice deal with Detroit.  But there was no way he was going to take less then Hernandez.  Hernandez is in elite company… there will be few pitchers in the history of baseball who will out-earn him.  His age and major league service time puts him in a class by himself, and best of luck to him.  But this wasn’t about who is better — it was about age and leverage.  Hernandez got what he deserved, and so did Verlander. In fact, I’m surprised that Verlander didn’t hold out for more.

As a fan who is still upset that Jack Morris didn’t retire a Tiger, I’m very happy that Verlander is staying a Detroit Tiger for at least five more years.

As a baseball fan who spent a great deal of time listening to games on the radio, I’ve led a blessed life.  I spent a good number of years listening to a great play by play combo, Ernie Harwell and Paul Carey.  Even though Ernie might be (in a biased point of view) the best ever, I always enjoyed my three innings with Paul.

When I moved to San Francisco in 2000, Jon Miller was (and remains) the Giants play by play announcer, and I always felt he was very good.  But honestly, what did I know?  I knew Ernie and Paul Carey were awesome;  I knew the douchebags that replaced Ernie for a short time were awful (as I stare at a Bo Schembechler bobble head doll on my desk, even Bo knew he probably made a mistake)… all I knew that Miller didn’t repulse me and wasn’t nearly as bad as Rizzs/ Rathbun.  And honestly I really liked Miller, and was adament to Giants fans that they had a good one on their hands.  More recently, Jon Miller has done plenty of national ESPN broadcasts, so the rest of the nation has been able to sample his goods.

Fast forward to this week, where Jon Miller was awarded the Ford C Frick award from the baseball hall of fame.  Its an annual award; the winners aren’t technically ‘in the hall of fame’, but they do have their own wing.  Past winners include guys like Harry Caray… Vin Scully… and one Ernie Harwell.  Well deserved, and I’m glad I’ll be listening to Mr Miller for quite a while.

As a child, I always thought that Ernie was the greatest announcer ever; partly because I was very young, and partly because its all I knew.  The fact that he was a Frick award winner (and therefore always referred to as ‘a member of the baseball hall of fame’, though the more I read up on it, thats probably paraphrasing the award just a little) helped justify my feelings.  I always thought to myself… why did Baltimore ever let Ernie go?  I couldn’t grasp that concept.  Today, I remembered that Jon Miller had also been let go by Baltimore, in 1996.  I’m not sure why Harwell was so available in 1959, and it sounds like Peter Angelos wasn’t a fan of Jon Miller, but its amazing that one team let such great talents walk.

So Congratulations to Jon Miller, who I think is world class. He’s also a giant student and fan of Harwell’s, so in a way, the tradition lives on.

Random Baltimore Announcer stats:  I tried to break down how many Frick award winners worked for which clubs.  The list seems incomplete, because so many of these guys bounced around and worked a year here or there (or for partial years, home games only, etc) that getting a full work schedule from pre-1960 is difficult.  Many guys worked for both Chicago teams at the same time; same for New York (giants / dodgers / yankees /mets).  However, outside of the major markets, Baltimore had a ton of Frick award winners work for them at one point:  Ernie Harwell / Jon Miller / Bob Murphy / Chuck Thompson / Herb Carneal.  Carneal worked with both Harwell and Murphy (who apparently succeeded Harwell for a few years).  Thompson worked with Harwell in Baltimore in 1955, and returned to announce Oriole games from ~1962 – 1987.  Out of this award-winning group, you have a group of men who became famous ‘voices’ for their respective ballclubs:  The voice of the Tigers (Harwell), The voice of the Mets (Murphy), The voice of the Twins (Carneal), the voice of the Orioles (Thompson).  Miller is the hardest one to pigeon hole, since so many famous announcers have called New York and San Francisco Giants games; Lon Simmons (another Frick award winner) was a long time announcer who also did 49er games when the 49ers were the big men on campus in the bay area.  Miller is so good, however, that I feel if he stays dedicated to the Giants — and doesn’t wander out national waters — he can probably write his own legacy here.

Side Note:  Take a look through other award winners, and I do start to wonder about this award.  Sure, people love Harry Caray, but if you had to listen to game 7 of a world series, would you want Caray calling that game?  I’d rather have Will Ferrell’s impression of Caray then Caray himself.  So I found another list of broadcasters to see how Miller stacks up.  The American Sportscasters Association has a top 50 list, and Miller is in good company here, coming in at #19.  Then again, this list has Ernie Harwell at #16, and somehow lists Joe Buck…