Tiger Geist

While the opening day starters are pretty much set in stone (assuming Johnny Damon doesn’t have a hang nail), let’s discuss how nervous we might be if a Tiger pulled a hamstring in camp, and was unavailable to play until mid-May.  I’ll group them in three categories.  The idea here is about breaking camp and the comfort level fans have of a replacement player; Wilkin Ramirez could hit .450 this spring and we still don’t know how he’ll play in April.  Bobby Seay’s shoulder soreness brings what was a theoretical discussion closer to reality…

Anxiety Attack division

• Justin Verlander.  There is a lot of pitching depth, but also a lot of #4 starters on the roster.  This works when you have a #1 starter; without a losing streak stopper you’re digging yourself out of a hole by the all-star break.  Also, with his new contract, no one wants Verlander to rush himself back into action with poor mechanics.
• Brandon Inge.  Detroit doesn’t have a third base prospect that can field or hit with power like Inge.  Actually they don’t have a third base prospect.  This might necessitate a trade or scrap-heap signing…. or worse, a shuffle of either Carlos Guillen or Ryan Raburn to third.  Neither is very good defensively here, though I assume we’ll see Guillen as an emergency backup infielder soon.  Its possible that a replacement hits and fields worse then Inge, on a team that may have problems playing defense and scoring runs.
• Zach Miner.  This one surprised me, but the more I thought about it, the more this loss would stress the bullpen.  First out of the bullpen, innings eater… Ryan Perry?  Joel Zumaya?  Left handed pitcher?  Perry might be the most capable, but was up and down in 2009.  You still want to monitor Zumaya’s workload if possible.  Does Jim Leyland go against his gut desire for matchups and let a left hander get four to six outs?  Miner bridges bullpen roles, and can a youngster (Perry) or a displaced starter (Galarraga) get that job done?
• Dontrelle Willis.  Here’s where I have an anxiety attack:  What if Willis pitches lights-out in the spring?  What does Detroit do?  Does anyone think it’ll last?

S^2 == Shakes and Sweats division

• Miguel Cabrera.  I’m conflicted here;  Cabrera is the team’s best player, so losing him for any amount of time is a huge concern.  However, Detroit has a decent short-term backup in Jeff Larish.  Larish bats left-handed (to further balance the offense), will give you quality at-bats with power, and knows first base well enough to lessen the concern of rookie Scott Sizemore at second.  The bigger concern is the lack of a true backup first baseman if Cabrera goes day to day with a leg injury.  Compared with other positions, Detroit does have options at first.  While he sounds like he can hit, Ryan Strieby won’t break camp with the big team, and pairing him with another rookie defensively would be bad.
• Gerald Laird.  I imagine Detroit can find more can’t hit but solid defensive catchers, and they probably have three in camp.  But Laird handles a tough pitching staff and is excellent at throwing out base runners.  I’m not really sure what Alex Avila will do offensively if pressed into full service, but it will probably be an upgrade over the 2009 Gerald Laird.  With a full camp for Avila (and Mike Rabelo and Robinzon Diaz), I could be talked into downgrading this.
• Jose Valverde.  This is a pure management/front office decision;  the Tigers felt they needed to spend a lot of money and forfeit a draft pick for a closer.  If Valverde can’t go, I would assume the Tigers are back to a position where they didn’t want to find themselves.
• Scott Sizemore.  When you’re counting on a rookie to start, there isn’t much hope that a capable minor league backup exists.  Ramon Santiago is the obvious fill-in here, but Detroit loses their utility man.  See Everett, Adam below for managerial concerns.  However, Sizemore is expected to hit, and Santiago can’t replace Sizemore’s bat.
• Left-handed Starter.  This is entirely based on when the injury occurs.  Detroit would love to have at least one left handed starter.  Assuming Dontrelle Willis isn’t ready… if Nate Robertson has the inside track on the fifth starter job but hurts his back lifting luggage on the way back to Detroit, the Tigers won’t have sufficient time to stretch out a Phil Coke.  Even if both Jeremy Bonderman and Armando Galarraga pitch well, five right-handed starters is a bit much.  If Dontrelle and Robertson both break a bone in their feet while we’re in February, this may not be a concern.  Doomsday thought… without injury, no one is confident that any of the potential left-handed starters will have decent years.

Cool as a Cucumber division

• Adam Everett.  If Everett, an above average fielder who bats ninth, doesn’t break camp, Detroit will replace him with a prospect who will be an above average fielder and bats ninth.  In fact, there’s a chance his replacement would outhit Everett.  Two concerns — 1) pairing a rookie double play combo, and 2) the chance that Jim Leyland overuses Ramon Santiago to cover this position.  Its hard to get nervous about a position Detroit has barely paid money for in 2009 and 2010.
• Insert_outfielder_name_here.  With the Damon signing, Detroit has capable backups at the corners with Carlos Guillen (well, as capable as they were as of Valentine’s day) and Ryan Raburn.  Center field is a toss up as is, between Austin Jackson and Clete Thomas.  An injury to Damon screws up the batting order, and an injury to Magglio helps the 2011 payroll.  This doesn’t even cover the young guys; an outfield injury can be absorbed.
• Left-handed-reliever.  Detroit has tons of them, though losing Bobby Seay in the first weekend of camp isn’t a good sign.  It would be hard to imagine Detroit signing ANOTHER left hander to the roster, but one guy with a sore shoulder and another guy who was in Korea last year isn’t awe-inspiring.

Final thoughts:

The answer to a lot of these injuries seems to be “Brent Dlugach” or “Don Kelly”.  Kelly doesn’t excite anyone but is versatile;  I like Dlugach for no other reason then I can finally spell his name without constantly looking it up.  Damon’s signing bolsters the backup outfielders to a respectable level, and the team’s all-star player is blocking some decent talent.  The real concern is Verlander, mentally and physically a unique player.