Tiger Geist

Nate Robertson lost out in the Tigers’ rotation battle, as well as the 25-man roster battle.  If you haven’t heard, Robertson was traded to Florida for minor leaguer Jay Voss and some form of cash.  Voss was the 23rd rated prospect in the Marlin’s system.  I doubt the cash will be a large amount (from the Robertson trade at least, more later), so its a ‘something for nothing’.  Detroit wanted its best team going north, and having either Willis or Robertson in the bullpen apparently didn’t factor into those plans.

According to Dave Dombrowski (via Jason Beck), Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis were slated into the rotation already.

My takeaways:

• Bonderman is the only pitcher who has a chance at being with Detroit in 2011; so he wasn’t going to be traded.  I felt he could have been decent in the bullpen while the team figures out whether or not Robertson or Willis could actually pitch.  Detroit probably feels that Eddie Bonine is better in this role.
• Willis doesn’t have any trade value
• Willis does, however, have value if he pitches this year.  If I’m correct in my assumption that Willis had an insured contract, keeping him on the 25 man roster helps make the case for his anxiety disorder disabled-list stint.  An insurance payment on even a fraction of his lost salary in 2008 / 2009 could be in the millions.
• Dontrelle throws harder then Robertson.  Dombrowski is a power-pitcher guy.  While Willis has fallen apart lately, Robertson wasn’t the picture of health in 2009 either.
• Honestly, neither Willis nor Robertson were going to win 14 games this year.  Someone had to go, and it probably didn’t matter which one went.  I’m nervous about rotation depth, especially without a left-hander ready for the big leagues in Detroit’s minor league system.  We’re talking about a roster squeeze with two average pitchers.
• The biggest news?  Dontrelle Willis is considered a starting pitcher by a team with playoff hopes.  That is simply amazing.
• Last, this gives Robertson a chance to establish himself in the National league in a contract year.  If his injury issues are behind him, I’m happy that he’ll get a chance to be a crafty left-handed starting pitcher in the NL.  No need to piss on his parade; best of luck to a strong member of the 2006 Tiger team.

Bobby Seay sounds upset about his injury.  And I think he should be.

Seay, diagnosed with a torn rotator cuff (Grade 2 undersurface tear), will rehab the injury.   And best of luck to him.

I’m a little peeved by a few areas here.  First, I feel I called this injury last year… Bobby Seay was pitching in so many games before the 2009 all star break, I compared him to Robb Nen… who ended his career with a massive rotator cuff tear.  Second, Seay was shut down late last year due to an arm injury.  Why would Detroit give him a $2.5 million contract without a proper physical?

Last, this quote from Jim Leyland perturbs me:

“He’s kind of a special guy for me,” Leyland said, “because he kind of floundered around, never did much, and was kind of a high prospect. I’m proud to say we gave him a shot — I’m bragging — but he took advantage of it. He ran with it. He’s done a heckuva job the last couple years for us.

Combine that with Leyland this quote (about Justin Verlander):

“I have to be careful with this guy,” Leyland said. “You take pride in being careful with your pitchers. You’re concerned about him as a real young pitcher, and now you’re concerned about him because you’re locked into him for a long time and he’s a great pitcher. We want him to be that way for a long time. That’s why I’m concerned about it — not upset about it, but I’m concerned about it.

Leyland gave him a shot and also (in my opinion) overused Seay, putting the rest of his career in doubt.  Seay also was not in Detroit’s long term plans — Bobby Seay and Fernando Rodney were both part-timing with the Tigers in 2009 (Rodney in his final year, Seay in most likely his second to last year) and Leyland ran both pitchers out as often as possible.  Maybe the one-year 2010 contract was payment for Seay’s past performance… but how it could have been signed without a proper physical is up there with the mysterious Jarrod Washburn physical of the 2009 trade deadline.  There was no way Seay could have passed a physical with any other team.  I have a hard time believing that Leyland’s handling of Seay in 2009 didn’t have some impact to his current situation.

That’s the breaks of the game; its how things work.  But let’s not be ignorant here.  Rick Porcello (or a Justin Verlander)’s workload will be monitored, because they’re the face of the franchise.  An inexpensive LOOGY (no matter how dependable, considering the last few seasons’ fluctuating bullpen) is not getting the same consideration.  This injury falls on Leyland;  I’m happy Bobby Seay gets a sizeable salary this year as return payment.  I don’t expect him to pitch for Detroit this year, but I will absolutely root for a comeback.

Just for fun, here are the games appeared in, and innings pitched, for the top five Tiger relief pitchers since 2006.  Notice 2009, with Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and Bobby Seay (arbitration controlled) all free agents after the season:

Tiger's top 5 relief pitchers, 2006

Tiger's top 5 relief pitchers, 2007

Tiger's top 5 relief pitchers, 2008

Tiger's top 5 relief pitchers, 2009

Returned late last night from Florida; didn’t have much time to write but I’ll catch up in the next day or two.  Quick thoughts from watching three games live over the weekend:

• Detroit seems very deep at every position, sans starting pitching and third base.
• Jeremy Bonderman looked visibly shaken on the mound against Atlanta on Friday night.  His frustration level was high; he isn’t quite where he wants to be and looked like he wanted to be anywhere but on the mound with two men on against Atlanta.  I still state he’ll be better off starting in the bullpen until he gains some confidence and arm strength.
• Dontrelle Willis looked fine… again.  So, pretend we don’t have the Dontrelle Willis of 2008 or 2009.  Does Detroit feel they have the Willis of 2005, or the Dontrelle that many scouts saw as on the decline in 2007 (in the national league, no less).
• I’m pretty sure that Don Kelly is the 25th man out of camp, with Clete Thomas using a minor league option.  However, after watching both Ryan Raburn and Kelly misplay balls in center field (Austin Jackson was as good as advertised), I’m nervous about flanking two average outfielders (some combination of Ordonez, Guillen, and Damon) without a true center fielder.  To be fair, I said “man, i wouldn’t want to play out there with the angle of the sun” a batter before Raburn misplayed a long fly ball.
• If Brent Dlugach put on 15 – 20 pounds before this spring, he must have weighed 120 pounds last season.  He’s still thin as a rail.
• If I’m going to be in the Detroit area this summer, I’m checking the schedule for Toledo.  That would be fun night out.  A combination of Strieby / Boesch / Wells / Larish / Dlugach, and possibly Clete Thomas / Alex Avila will score some runs.
• Is Wilkin Ramirez the odd-man out in the Toledo outfielder shuffle?  He suddenly seems like the forgotten man in 2010.
• My fourth trip in a row to spring training, and the Tigers look as good as I’ve seen them.  This, of course, means nothing, but I went in with an open mind and was pleasantly surprised with the team.  At a minimum, they should be fun to root for.

The only real surprise is the timing, but Armando Galarraga is heading to Toledo, and Jacob Turner is going West Michigan. I have a 1:30am flight out of SFO Friday morning to Tampa, with a quick drive over to Orlando for Friday evening’s split squad game against Atlanta.

Galarraga hasn’t pitched well this spring, but it still seems a little early for his demotion assignment. He probably wasn’t happy, and he shouldn’t be. But facts are facts: There are only two rotation spots open, and while there is ‘hope’ in the trio of Bonderman, Willis, and Robertson, none have been ‘outstanding’. The fact that Galarraga’s demotion wasn’t a surprise AND that none of the other three potential starters have pitched lights-out shows you the kind of spring Armando was having.  Inconsistency won’t earn you a spot in the bullpen either.

I’m aware that Galarraga’s 2008 season might have been more luck then anything, but for Detroit’s pitchers, he seems to have fared the worst since Chuck Hernandez’s departure as Tiger pitching coach.  I’m quite happy with Rick Knapp, so we’ll leave it at that.  I am, however, little pissed that Jacob Turner was assigned already, as I was really hoping to see him pitch this weekend. Lesson learned: if your schedule allows it, go to spring training early if you want to see the kids.

I’m excited to catch Bonderman vs Atlanta; I see the Tigers again Saturday in Lakeland vs the Phillies, and Monday against Toronto in Dunedin. Sunday is against the Yankess in Tampa, but I agree with Tom Gage… once you’ve been to Legends Field Steinbrenner Field, you’ve seen it.  Feel free to follow me on twitter, @tigergeist. I may do some live ‘twittering/tweeting/stupid verb based on the act of using twitter’ at the games, but I’m also bringing enough gadgets/cameras to annoy the person who will be sitting next to me (my father).

In a word:  Nothing.

But what can we gather?  Stats don’t mean a whole lot.  Starting pitchers only facing the opposing lineup once doesn’t show us anything.  But we can get a read on what the managers are thinking.

1) Don Kelly will be on the 25 man roster in April.  He’s killing the ball, hits left handed, helps make up for Carlos Guillen not playing a position, is out of options… and appears to be getting a ton of playing time at third and second base.  Detroit obviously feels Brandon Inge will play most of the year, but he just saw his first spring action.  I’m not buying that Inge should play every game in April; recent surgery + bad weather conditions = Detroit needs a backup third baseman for the first month of the year.  Kelly is hitting well, is athletic, has very good basepath speed… he’ll be on the team.  Interesting how much playing time he’s getting at second base; Detroit seems a little nervous about either Scott Sizemore’s spring stats or (more likely) his ankle.

2) Alex Avila looks to make the team.  While I think it makes perfect sense to let Avila catch every day in Toledo for a few months, Leyland was reluctant to have Avila catch certain pitchers upon his callup last year, citing Avila’s lack of familiarity with some of the staff.  If this is the case, a mid-season callup doesn’t make sense.  Just have Avila on the team in April.

3) Austin Jackson in center field seems to be a lock.  The last position player may be down to Ryan Raburn and Clete Thomas.  Thomas will probably join a now very crowded outfield in Toledo, barring a trade.

4) Speaking of trades, does anyone see one?  There is a logjam in the outfield in Toledo, but left and possibly right field could be open for competition in 2011.  Is Detroit sure they can trust the young outfielders (Wells, Ramirez, Thomas, Strieby, Boesch) enough to trade Ryan Raburn if they were blown away with an offer?  Most likely, Detroit doesn’t get blown away with an offer, and Raburn’s use in the infield make him too valuable.

5) I found it interesting that Lynn Henning (back on Feb 25) thought Jeremy Bonderman might start the season in the bullpen, trying to gain arm strength.  The more I think about it, the better that the trio of Bonderman / Willis / Robertson pitch, the greater chance Zach Miner gets squeezed off the roster.

6) I’m not getting too excited about Dontrelle Willis yet.  In fact, i’m downright nervous.  But he’s pitched well enough that he’ll make the team and he’ll be in the starting rotation.  If he gets shelled after two outings in April, Detroit will make some form of move with him.  I’m marking this one down.. Willis is on the team, barring a total meltdown or injury.

7) This goes for all of the recovering pitchers – Bonderman, Nate Robertson, and Willis — barring injury, they’ll be on the team in some role; they won’t be cut out of camp.  I make no guarantees any of the three will continue to be on the team when I drive down to LA to see Detroit take on the Dodgers in late May.

8 ) I’m not positive that the best 25 man roster Detroit brings north has Ramon Santiago on it over Brent Dlugach.  Santiago is actually just about average defensively.  He’s kinda average (though a switch hitter) offensively.  Three things will keep Dlugach in Toledo:  1) Fellow rookie Scott Sizemore — Leyland likes his vets, and two infield rookies might be too much to handle with the new state smoking ban, 2) Adam Everett’s expiring contract, and 3) Brandon Inge’s expiring contract.  Dlugach will be groomed to replace one of the infield positions in 2011.  I would suspect Detroit thinks about giving Inge an extension soon (maybe after his knees heal) and Dlugach is at short in Toledo.  This also gives Detroit the option of a mid-season callup if Dlugach is hitting well to replace the expected .225 average of Everett.

9) I’m not positive the Lions don’t sign Jose Valverde to improve their pass rush.  He could be in the two-deep rotation by Thanksgiving.

Last, I’ve buried this since I hate talking about it, but Lynn Henning just hates Curtis Granderson.  I can’t figure out why.  On March 10, with just over a week of games in, Henning had this to say about Austin Jackson:

He plays a better center field than Curtis Granderson and so far he has hit dramatically better than some of us imagined.

Dear Lynn:  Please stop talking about Granderson.  Or do what Buster Olney does for PEDs, have a special section at the end of your articles and just put a “Granderson Bashing Below” sign and go to town.    I just don’t care anymore; you’re sucking the fun out of reading about Austin Jackson.  And I’m not even a big Granderson fan.

Dontrelle Willis had another decent / solid outing yesterday.  The way the Atlanta radio announcers called the walk he issued to Jason Heyward, it sounded as if Willis was pitching around Heyward after his monster home run off of Scherzer in the first.

Kurt didn’t have Dontrelle’s previous spring stats to see how 2010 stands… so I spent the morning digging them up.  I remembered attending the March 21, 2008 game, and how unbearable it was sitting through 3 1/3 innings of Dontrelle allowing baserunners, taking his time on the mound, throwing over to first (though he did have at least one pickoff).. game felt like it took six hours.  It does appear Willis started strong in 2008, however, before quickly falling off.

So, here are your Dontrelle Willis spring training stats for 2008 and 2009.  I also included Dontrelle’s magical first start in the regular season in 2008… for the memories.

Dontrelle Willis, Spring 2008

Dontrelle Willis, Spring 2009

I wrote up an extensive review (with an update) on the 2009 MLB at-bat iphone application.  One word:  Awesome.  2010 brings a new season and a new version of the application.  They released this one earlier in the season (early spring training), and I’ve spent the last week evaluating it.  As of now, I can only report on the audio portion of the app.  I imagine I’ll probably drop the $100 for mlb.tv, which will/should provide full game integration into the application.  All of the pros of the application from last year still apply, so I won’t relist all of them.  Also, I didn’t do as much testing between Wifi, 3G, and edge networking;  its the same audio quality as 2009, so the connections shouldn’t be any different from last year’s review.  NOTE:  Tested on an iphone 3G.  Also, if you’re completely new to the app, please read the 2009 review first which goes over the full details of the application.  This review covers what’s new.

The new application cost is $15, up $5 from 2009.  There have been substantial improvements, and they touted this application during Apple’s ipad launch presentation.  I imagine part of what users are paying is an ipad writing and testing tax. As mentioned here, its not official if this will be the same program as the one available on the ipad. 2009 also gave a free yet substantial upgrade mid-season to the application, with more video integration.

Pros:

• Vs 2009, the application is faster.  Improvements have been made all around on efficiency;  app loads faster (note — when it loads), driving down into your game of choice is faster… clicking between the box scores of the teams is faster.  My favorite speedup is the new ‘listen’ button that appears on the main scoreboard — highlight your chosen game and listen right away.  The 2009 version required a few more steps to get to the audio portion; this is a welcome advancement.
• Streaming audio now works correctly!  This… is… big.  As noted here and here, this app isn’t the first to do so, but its a giant step forward for the at-bat application.  By utilizing a quicktime stream through safari, the application can launch your audio broadcast which will run in the background of your phone.  Listening to a game and need to send or reply to a text message?  No problem; audio continues to stream.  Checking your email?  No problem.  Get a phone call?  Phone will automatically silence the audio stream for your call… and the audio will pick right back up when you end the call.  This was my biggest issue with the 2009 version — previously, if you exited the application for any reason, you have to relaunch and find your gamefeed again.  Video isn’t working yet so I’m not sure how that will be affected, but I imagine this was an audio-only (radio broadcast) fix.
• Push notifications for games.  Pick your favorite team, and the application lets you know when the game starts (similar to receiving a txt message), and also sends a notification for when the game is over, with some basic info (final score, winning and losing pitchers).  This can be turned off.
• Little item, but you get the commercials for the feed you’re listening too.  Sometimes its the little things, but when you grew up in the Detroit area, its fun to listen to the local commercials… and I always get a kick out of Ernie Harwell doing his Blue Cross / Blue Shield commercial.

Cons:

• If there are connection issues, the app will ‘spin’ during loading and the app will eventually die.  Good news is this doesn’t affect the phone stability.  Sometimes a phone reboot fixes the problem.  This is the only major issue, and I’ll detail more because its frustrating.
• The push notification would be annoying if you left it on but didn’t want to know the score of the game.  I also imagine there will be a few thrown phones due to it.. you turn the game off when you’re team is down 9 runs in the sixth, only to get a notification/reminder that your team lost 15-2 an hour later.

The loading issue bothers me, because it is apparent that it is the development team not spending enough time dealing with the robustness of the network connection.  While its possible that I had limited network coverage during testing (the phone showed full 3G service, but it is AT&T after all), the app should be able to handle it.  While I was in Union Square / downtown San Francisco, I went to do a quick score check.  App kept dying.  As a spot check, I noticed my twitter app also gave connection time-outs.  However, I could still check email and I didn’t have any problems pulling up espn’s mobile site to check the box score at the same location.  So while other apps haven’t quite put enough time into their network robustness / performance, Safari and Mail.app didn’t have any problems.  Sometimes, after a reboot, the problem went away.  I will say that there were a few times that my twitter client could not connect but MLB at-bat 2010 could.

With that note above, who is this application for? Its not for anyone who just wants to get a quick score check;  the app is faster in 2010 but still not as fast as espn.com or other mobile sports site.  Given the caveat on network performance when you’re not on wifi, I probably wouldn’t even load the app if I’m just checking the score — Safari is faster and more robust.  I would also say, if you live in the radio jurisdiction of the team(s) that you want to listen to, I don’t know what value this would add.  I also probably wouldn’t buy this if I was in the same time zone as my favorite team — games start when I’m at work, and continue while I’m commuting home from work.

Great… who would buy it then? I have, and I love it.  I can listen to any game, but mainly the Tigers while I’m at work.  Wifi is great, but if you have 3G you can listen while at work and not get in trouble if you have a heavy-handed firewall in your way.  (When they are available), video highlights are great to catch up on the big plays, and the consolidated games (when available) are fantastic and excellent quality.  The video integration changes (if any) will be interesting to follow up on once the regular season kicks off.  Now that MLB found a way to stream audio in the background of the phone, it fixes the biggest issue/annoyance of the 2009 app.  If you have (or are thinking about) MLB.tv, the 2009 integration was fantastic.  2010 shouldn’t disappoint.

A lot of people are complaining about the cost, and it is justified if you live in your local market of the team you want to listen to.  I live in San Francisco, so I would probably hesitate to pony up money to listen to A’s or Giant’s games.   The real value is out of market games.  As Detroit Tiger fan & blogger, its either satellite radio (no thanks) or $15 for this app, for the entire season.  I think its money well spent.

Detroit blows out the annual Florida Southern game.  I still think its a great tradition for everyone.  Let’s catch up before going into tomorrow’s official first spring training game.

• Couple items on Gerald Laird working on his hitting.  Never underestimate the power of the contract year.
• Brandon Inge is ahead of schedule.  Also sounds like his swing is back.  Both good news.
• Bill Simmons and Dave Dameshek had an interesting podcast this week… Simmons thinks the Damon signing was a great idea (every Yankee fan wanted Damon back).  They also talk baseball stats, and wonder if stats are starting to over-rate defense.  Simmons cites Damon and Manny Ramirez as awful outfielders who helped lead their team to world championships.  Interesting thought… during the 2004 Red Sox championship, with Ramirez and Damon manning left and center field, they had a -7.2 and a -7.6 UZR, respectively.  Doesn’t hurt when they also combined to hit over .300 with 63 home runs.
• Bobby Seay might throw again.  Seay had a down 2008, rebounded in 2009 (probably over-used), shut down at the end of 2009, shut down to start 2010.  Not a huge surprise that Detroit loaded up on left handed relievers this offseason, but if they were truly worried about Seay’s health they might not have signed him to a $2.4 million contract.
• Verlander to start the first game… Porcello to start the home opener.  Maybe I’m the only person who has no idea why this is important on March 1.  Home opener will be sold out if I take the mound, let alone Porcello.
• Lynn Henning is pushing hard for Alex Avila to be with the big league team in 2010.  As a former college first baseman, it feels like Avila needs more work behind the plate.  It would not surprise me if he starts getting reps at first soon.  I don’t see why he’d join the Tigers to only play twice a week, and Leyland won’t DH one of his catchers.

Pseudo-fake game on!