Tiger Geist

In previous starts, Dontrelle Willis has looked average.  Not good, not bad.  Average.  This afternoon, Dontrelle was good to very good.  For some reason I’ve consistently been able to watch all of Dontrelle’s starts this year, and this was by far his best.  He was consistent, he was in control, he was effective, he was efficient.  Its a very important step for him.  I agree with Kurt — as fans, we’re not out of the woods.  Here’s Dontrelle’s current recipe for a successful season:

Step 1: Gain consistency.

Step 2: Take advantage of an abnormal delivery that most American League batters have not seen much of

Step 3:?????????????

Step 4: Disney movie

I’m not sure what Step 3 will involve.  Will Dontrelle win ten games this year?  Will he pitch effectively for the season?  Will he lose his confidence / control / teammates confidence?  Will he stay healthy?  Who will play him in the Disney movie?

Every game shows an improvement for Willis, and as I’ve mentioned before, this is probably the most consistent baseball activity/work Willis has seen since September of 2007.  As the weather continues to warm up, maybe good things will happen.  Every series against the Twins is a big series for the team (and especially for fans); no one would have expected Dontrelle Willis to have the most effective start of the series out of the trio of Willis, Verlander and Scherzer.  Yes it was a depleted Twins lineup.  But I can’t help but be encouraged by the continued improvement, start over start, by Willis.  No, i’m not buying his jersey.  Am I getting ahead of myself?  Oh yes.  But raise your hand if you thought that Dontrelle Willis would have the lowest ERA of the starting rotation, on a team with a winning record at the end of April?  He’s tied for the lead in bases on balls… with Justin Verlander.

Game / series thoughts:

• Joel Zumaya was lights out today.  He has a weird shoulder shrug after every pitch that constantly worries me — and i’m sure every pitcher does it — but Zumaya is so scary good right now that I’m begging him to stay healthy.
• Brennan Boesch had a better series then Joe Mauer.  Keep the scorecard kid, that won’t happen again.
• Scott Sizemore had a fantastic play at second, sliding to get a ball, positioning himself to pop up and make a strong throw.  Sounds like Leyland is still nervous about his ankle, but it doesn’t seem to be affecting his fielding.  I thought Sizemore would have gotten his first home run in Texas, but he could be having power issues due to the injury.
• Speaking of injuries, Adam Everett made an odd play today, his first day back since his hamstring has been bothering him.  In a run-down, Everett was chasing the Minnesota baserunner back to first, and instead of throwing down to first, Everett ran with him and caught him a split-second before the runner returned to the base.  On the phone with my dad while the play developed, and he goes “why the hell didn’t he just throw it?”.
• I was taking mental notes on Monday about a blog post titled “Brandon Inge is costing himself an extension” as I was listening to the game.  While I was polishing up the greatest post you’ve ever read (all in my mind still), Inge hits his first homer of the year.  Its like a reverse-Tiger Town theory.
• I do think Detroit is waiting to see how Inge holds up before finalizing a contract extension.  I imagine this week helped, and an extension will probably get taken care of by the all-star break.  I imagine a two year deal sounds about right.
• Man, can Austin Jackson play some center field.
• For Ryan Raburn, I’m not sure I wouldn’t send him down to Toledo right now.  Think about giving him two weeks of steady starts in Toledo, and recall him before memorial day.  Replace him with Brent Dlugach.  See if you can get some more offense out of the shortstop / second base trio of Santiago, Sizemore, and Dlugach.  If it seems to be working, maybe Everett is expendable.  Either way, Raburn deserves to be on the team going into the summer, but give him some help and get him on track with steady at-bats.
• Yes that was a real thought I just had.  However, Dlugach has strikeout numbers that remind you of Austin Jackson’s struggles.  That seems to be a common problem with all of Detroit’s top talent in Toledo… they’re feast or famine.  I liked what I saw of Dlugach in spring that I’d still give him a shot soon.

Speaking of going overboard…

Let’s talk about the Disney movie on Dontrelle… I think Disney would muck it up a little bit.  Probably a “The Rookie meets Remember the Titans meets The Blind Side“, with just a touch of “for love of the game“.  Dontrelle is probably young enough to play himself (especially if you film it in the off-season).  Sandra Bullock can be the counselor that works with Willis.  There would have to be some tension — who is the asshole player who thinks they aren’t getting a chance because of his contract?  Do they fake clubhouse issues based on race (white, african american, venezuelan) but Dontrelle keeps the peace with everyone so they’re all pulling for him?  It would be all bullshit, but apparently so was half of ‘the rookie’ and ‘remember the titans’.  Maybe they do a made for TV special, one hour focusing on Dontrelle, one on Rick Ankiel.  Sandra Bullock can star in both actually.  Maybe Willis and Ankiel are time travelers fighting off galactic space bandits.  Sandra Bullock can be their ammunition salesperson, and Jesse James can be the bad guy.

Trust me, if Dontrelle somehow throws a no-hitter this year (or even some meaningful game to push Detroit into the playoffs), they’ll probably just re-make ‘for love of the game’, starring Dontrelle Willis.

Dontrelle Willis was out.  Brad Thomas was in.  No es bueno.

Thomas, who looked every part of a reliever who is merely keeping Zach Miner’s spot warm, was effective ‘enough’… due to Detroit putting 8 runs on the board by the bottom of the fourth inning.  Eddie Bonine was good, and Joel Zumaya was outstanding.  Again.  The offense seems to have woken up after Thursday night / Friday morning’s travel schedule.

• Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera continue to hit.
• Brennan Boesch got his first RBI.  And he had a difficult time on a fly ball in left.  Not saying Boesch is a bad outfielder, but he is the guy who had swelling above his eye after missing a fly ball in spring.
• Speaking of Boesch, I like Leyland playing the callups right away, riding the hot hand.  I’m not a fan of Boesch DH’ing Friday night; seems like a lot of pressure for a young player to have to concentrate on each at-bat.  I liked Leyland putting Boesch in left tonight (eventually getting pulled for Don Kelly).
• Scott Sizemore had a stiff ankle, so Ryan Raburn got the start at second.  He’s still not hitting well (his hit was a bunt single), and Detroit needs to get him going.
• Adam Everett strained his hamstring.  That’s two Tigers with hamstring issues in three days.
• I’m not sure what to do about Brad Thomas, except Detroit doesn’t have any other alternatives at the moment.  He’s just not good.
• I’m waiting for this fairy tale of the 2010 Joel Zumaya to end.  Let me get this straight, Zumaya has a shoulder that will never heal, and he’s throwing as hard as ever, and now his pitches have movement?  He’s been simply amazing.  Can it last?
• Austin Jackson is an amazing fielder, and seems to hit well enough to stay in the majors.  I would be fine with him moving down in the order; he’s struck out to open the game in 8 out of 17 games this year.

After the first week of the season, someone asked me to look into Detroit’s batting average with runners in scoring position for the first two weeks of 2010 vs the last two weeks of 2009.  I took this a step further, and decided to take 13 games from the start of 2010, the end of 2009, and the start of 2009 to see what we come up with.  First, the stats:

Numbers are remarkably similar…won/loss record, batting average… except in a few areas.  First, slugging percentage is similar (identical for the 2010 vs the playoff run in 2009) but there is a big difference in home runs and doubles — maybe Lynn Henning was right about Detroit struggling to hit home runs.  Similarly, Detroit isn’t scoring a lot of runs either.

Back to the assignment, which has been made worse over the last week:  Detroit’s batting average with runners in scoring position.  Its awful.  Surprisingly, the end of 2009 appears to be pretty solid (.285).  However, pull out Detroit’s slugfest from 9/26/2009, Detroit had a 12 game BA w/RISP of .235 (28 for 119).

So it isn’t that Detroit is matching their slide at the end of 2009… they’re actually scoring runs at a worse rate.  They’re getting on base without any problems, they just can’t deliver a hit.  Its not just a lack of power, but a lack of delivering.

Other stats of interest:

• I’m really shocked that, with such a small sample size (13 games), how many of these stats are similar.
• Only 2 stolen bases.  I really felt this team was faster then the 2009 version, but not much is happening.
• Only 3 Tigers have home runs (Cabrera – 3, Ordonez – 4, Guillen – 1)
• Adam Everett has as many hits as the catchers combined – 6.
• Everett (.308) is out-slugging the entire bench: Raburn (.250), Avila (.167), Kelly (.222), Santiago (.200).  This can’t be good.

Dontrelle Willis pitched his best game of the season, yet suffers his first loss against the Angels.  I have this suspicion about Dontrelle, one that I couldn’t keep out of my mind as the this evening’s game progressed:  The more he pitches, the more consistent he’ll get.

Let’s face it, fans are just waiting for some giant meltdown.  I think thats all behind us.  No, I don’t think Dontrelle is suddenly a solid #2 starter, but I think he’ll now be consistent.  In previous years, Willis struggled from the outset, and Detroit claimed he had an anxiety disorder.  Suddenly, Dontrelle is away from his teammates, told he has a some form of disorder, and is away from his love of baseball.  Nothing goes right for two years.

Now, Dontrelle has pitched consistently for nearly two months.  His coaches can now tweak his routine, not totally revamp it.  He’s happy, around teammates, and the breakdown/implosion hasn’t happened.  Sometimes you feel he’s on the brink of disaster, but he pulls it back together.  I really feel he’s ready to move forward.

The problem?  Even without any potential meltdowns, Willis is still a junkball pitcher who can dial it into the low 90′s without control.  He probably won’t make Detroit fans forget Nate Robertson — which really is no small feat.  He may not be in the starting rotation in June.  But with every start, the chance for a giant breakdown feels greatly reduced.

Living in the now, Willis can enjoy himself.  Maybe tonight, Verlander is buying drinks, welcoming Dontrelle into the ‘no run support’ club.  Who would have guessed this three months ago?

Miguel Cabrera led the charge this afternoon, helping Detroit avoid a series sweep by Seattle.  Cabrera turned 27 today, and I never noticed how similar he was to Hank Aaron.  Both broke into the league when they were 20.  Tracking their stats through their first seven seasons, they’re remarkably similar (caveat:  Hank Aaron apparently never struck out).  Interesting to track this as Cabrera’s career moves forward.  I love me some Barry Bonds, but… I’m a realist.

I’m trying to avoid day to day sways by a team that isn’t perfect, and waiting until they play more games to rush to judgement / analyze.  Here are some early thoughts:

• Year 2 of the “Ryan Raburn just isn’t a good defender”.  He didn’t start hitting until May / June of 2009, so I’m not too worried.  But I wonder how long the team will stick with Don Kelly and Raburn if the Toledo boys continue to show power, especially when Detroit isn’t showing a lot of power.  Maybe Leyland needs to stop playing Raburn in the infield, but you’ve got to catch the ones that hit you in the glove.
• Dontrelle Willis.  Um…  Dontrelle Willis.
• I turned down a bet as to who would have the better record on June 1, the Giants or the Tigers.  Probably a good move on my part.
• Back to Willis.  Do we know who will have the better year… pick one:  Dontrelle Willis.  Jeremy Bonderman.  Eddie Bonine.  I mentioned this in the winter.. but really, Detroit’s 4th and 5th starter are a mystery.
• One reason I’m holding back on analysis is Detroit’s 1st through 3rd starters have been average at best;  if their starting pitching is not their strength this year, they’re pretty screwed.
• Booked a six day trip to Detroit in June, and both the Tigers and the Mud Hens are out of town.  WTF.
• I can’t see Detroit sending Alex Avila to Toledo to catch every day;  if he’s demoted, it will be to hit every day.  I’ve decided that I’m a big Avila fan; i’m not sure his catching needs more work, but Detroit needs more offense from behind the plate.

Random family notes:

• My sister Mary decided that Austin Jackson is ‘her tiger’.  I think it was previously a mix between Brandon Inge (Dexter MI connection) and Curtis Granderson.  For some reason he was available, so I’ve decided to sponsor Austin Jackson’s Baseball Reference page in Mary’s honor.
• My father Don just had shoulder surgery, and he had an injury similar to Bobby Seay’s (granted they may be just a few years apart).  Godspeed to his shoulder and golf game.

A lot of adjectives have been used for Dontrelle Willis’ first start of the season;  “Solid“.  “Good”.  I disagree; I watched the game, and Dontrelle was nothing more then “Average”, or “Ok”.  Nothing special.  Doesn’t qualify as good.  That day, against the Royals, it was “good enough”, and without the pressure of pitching at home.  So which Dontrelle Willis will show up tomorrow? Max Scherzer showed today how difficult can be to face the same time in back to back starts; how will Dontrelle respond?

It did appear Dontrelle gained confidence as his initial start went on.  And Jim Leyland will probably give Willis plenty of opportunity to get into a rhythm; as Steve Kornacki noted, Detroit’s bullpen is averaging nearly 4 innings / game this season.

Interesting statistic: Dontrelle walked the first batter he faced in 2010; this has been a disturbing trend in his stint with Detroit.  In 2009, Willis walked 57% of the first batters he faced entering a game (4 walks in 7 games); 2008 saw Willis walk 63% of first batters faced (5 of 8).  However, with Florida in 2007, Dontrelle only walked 2 of the first batters out of 35 starts, or just under 6%.  Based on statistics of Dontrelle Willis wearing a Detroit uniform, KC’s leadoff batter has a 63% chance of walking to lead off the game tomorrow vs a 6% chance of striking out; he shouldn’t even take the bat off of his shoulder.

I’ll assume that Justin Verlander purchased Max Scherzer’s first after-game beer tonight.  Scherzer joined the official ‘lack of run support’ Tiger starting pitching club with a solid 6 inning outing.  The weather sucked, the offense sucked, yet Detroit had the game in their hands before Valverde couldn’t close it out.  Normally I chalk it up to “oh well, its early in the season”… but after 2009, you realize how important every game really is.  As fans, we’ll just have to get over that some day.

Couple of discussion points:

• Not sure I’ve ever seen a catcher pinch run for another catcher, which is what Jim Leyland had Gerald Laird do for Alex Avila in the 8th.  Not sure I agreed with it either.  If you want speed, put in Don Kelly or Ryan Raburn to pinch run, and deal with a double-switch if you’d like.  If you want a bat, pinch-hit Raburn for Sizemore.
• Leyland telegraphed his intentions for Sizemore to bunt by pinch-running Laird.  Seems like a lot of pressure on a rookie; could have been a place for an Adam Everett pinch-hit as well.
• I’d have kept Avila in and let Sizemore swing away.  Or pinch-hit with Raburn, inserting Everett defensively (sliding Ramon Santiago over to second).  Sizemore isn’t on the team for his defense; why take the bat out of his hands?  Similarly, its painful to get two at-bats worth of Gerald Laird.  Yes its easy to second-guess.  When you openly state “man, this sounds like a bad idea” and it turns out to be a bad idea…
• I won’t harp on Sizemore’s error in the bottom of the eleventh, and I’m guessing Leyland doesn’t care.  He already has Raburn slated to start at second base Thursday.  Raburn could be the fourth-best defensive second baseman on the team, behind Santiago, Sizemore, and Kelly.
• Its early, but the infield defense hasn’t been exceptional.  A botched double play in the fifth may have cost Scherzer an extra inning.
• Based on the situation, it sure seems like Miguel Cabrera’s base running blunder was quite ill-timed.  Though he put himself into that situation with his game-tieing homer, so he gets a pass.
• I’m very interested in Dontrelle Willis’ start Thursday.  I’d prefer Detroit head into the home opener with a winning record, and… well… Dontrelle is a complete unknown.
• mlb.tv better fix its bandwidth issues.  The quality is spotty.  HD my ass.

Hit a couple of areas in today’s off-day:
The Tiger’s victory is important to fans; when your team loses the first game of the season, it feels like all of the excitement of the off-season and spring training runs out the door.  I tried finding any statistical correlation between winning the first game of the season and how the season will turn out… and there is none.  As fans, its nice to savor a couple of extra days of excitement.

The only real surprise in the 8-4 defeat of the Royals was the bullpen use.  I’m intrigued by Ryan Perry as the setup man, with Joel Zumaya the first pitcher out of the bullpen.  Probably nothing to read into, but it shows how far Perry has come since his rookie year in 2009.  It could also be that Jim Leyland had an opportunity for a reliever to enter the game, and wanted Zumaya to get his first action on the road — Joel is a little bit of a high energy guy.  Looking forward to seeing Max Scherzer in his AL debut.

Another area of interest was Don Kelly being the defensive replacement of Johnny Damon in the 8th.  I imagine you keep Ryan Raburn available to pinch-hit, ‘in case’.

I’m trying to nail down some plans to see Detroit play at Dodger Stadium in May, and as always I’m scouring the internet for available tickets (craigslist, stubhub, dodgers.com, etc).  Looks like seeing detroit play in LA will cost about 5X the cost of a similar seat to watch the Tigers play Oakland.  I did find an interesting site to pass along:

http://www.seats3d.com/

While it doesn’t work well for fans in Detroit (only the Pistons are signed up at the moment, Michigan State coming soon), it gives you an interactive view of potential seats, and links to purchase those seats from the team.  A nice tool when you’re looking for seats in unfamiliar venues.  (via lifehacker)

Work schedule willing, I’ll be doing a mega-chat with all of the Tiger mega-bloggers, from 3EST until the first pitch at 4EST today.  That’s lunch time for my fellow west-coasters.

Feel free to drop in and ask a question.

I’ll spend this Sunday morning finishing my 2010 Detroit Tiger preview, just before the regular season starts.  I try not to do predictions, because i’m terrible at them.  But for some reason, I can’t get the number 87 out of my head.  87 victories.  I won’t do a full 25 man roster breakdown, but let’s discuss why Detroit can hit 87 wins on the year.

I always start with 81 wins as my benchmark:  Is a team average?  Yes, this team is at least average.  With a healthy season, they’ll win 81 games without any issue.  How far above average are they?  Let’s look at some thoughts and numbers.

Discussion Point:  Detroit won’t hit enough to contend.

477 – 78 – 72 -> Plate attempts by Gerald Laird (477), Matt Treanor / Dane Sardinha / Dusty Ryan (78), and Alex Avila (72) in 2009.  Avila is the superior hitter here, and he’ll easily get double his 2009 workload.  Laird has had good reports out of spring training on his new swing and approach at the plate, and Avila’s bat should give Laird a few more off-days.  It was a popular thought when Laird was acquired that he would hit better if his at-bats were limited;  combine that with his contract year and the catcher position should see a boost in offense.

486 -> The number of plate appearances given to Josh Anderson (175), Aubrey Huff (117), and Marcus Thames (294) in 2009.  These will be absorbed by better hitters, most likely a combination of Ryan Raburn, Carlos Guillen, and Johnny Damon.  The trio will hit for a higher average, more power, and may even be an upgrade defensively (assuming Guillen takes most of his at-bats in the DH role).

Offensively, Detroit’s biggest concern is replacing Placido Polanco and Curtis Granderson, both in the field and at the plate.  Detroit thinks they’ve replaced both, but with rookies who may be prone to slumps in their first year.  Polanco’s replacement (Scott Sizemore) will hit for a slightly lower average but with more power;  Granderson’s replacement (Austin Jackson) will hit for a higher average but with less power, maybe significantly less power.  The big difference is Detroit has essentially replaced Polanco’s bat and place in the order with Johnny Damon, which allows Sizemore to add some hitting to the bottom of the order.

While Detroit gives up some power by not retaining Granderson and Thames, their bench will have better hitters.  The addition of some more speed may help the offset of home-run power, though I think Detroit will hit more home runs then Lynn Henning seems to think.  Power hitters may also the biggest strength of their high level prospects in Toledo.

The biggest chance to regress? Adam Everett.  Everett’s at the age where he won’t get any better, and in fact he might struggle to hit .225.

Regression fears, Part 2:  Magglio Ordonez.  Say what you want about how he looks, how his spring has been, or how strong he ended 2009.  He’s at an age where you just can’t predict how well they’ll take a full season, recover from minor injuries, or when they’ll lose power.  With all the statistics available to us, in terms of age they’re all skewed due to… unfortunate circumstances that hit baseball for the last 20 years.  Magglio may be an all-star, or he may hit .275 with 15 home runs.  I do think that his slump in early 2009 could serve as a wake-up call on his off-season regimen.  There is cause for hope, as he did get stronger as the  year went on.

Area to watch: How Detroit handles the short stop position.  Everett’s batting average vs Ramon Santiago’s workload vs a minor league prospect (a long shot given a rookie already at second base) vs an acquisition.  Its the extremes in the “offense vs defense” argument.  I do expect Everett to play whenever Rick Porcello is on the mound.

Area to watch #2:  Which non-25 man roster prospect has the biggest impact in 2010?  I know Clete Thomas will see some action this year, but its hard to assess his offensive impact.  Casper Wells may be a better bet, but how would either crack the lineup, barring injury?

Area to watch #3:  Age vs day to day injuries.  How does Jim Leyland juggle the lineup with Inge on repaired knees, Damon and Ordonez with a few gray hairs, and Carlos Guillen limping around half of the season?  Its easier when someone is out for two weeks; its difficult when hamstring injuries linger.

Discussion point: Detroit doesn’t have enough starting pitching.

15 – 2 -> The numbers of starts combined in 2009 by Dontrelle Willis and Jarrod Washburn (15); The number of victories from those two starters (2).  Detroit didn’t have enough starting pitching in 2009 either.  Dontrelle Willis will not kill Detroit in 2010.  Why? They won’t let him.  Willis had seven starts in 2009; if he is ineffective in six starts in 2010, he will be outrighted to Toledo before any opportunity to get a seventh.  I don’t understand the gamble on keeping Willis in the first place, but I can’t see management allowing him to kill this team’s chances if he can’t pitch effectively into May.

The real wildcard on this staff is Jeremy Bonderman.  Detroit can probably replace one starting pitcher during the year, but not two.

Area to watch:  I’ll call it “the race to Ben Sheets” (or add any available pitcher here).  How many prospects will Detroit be willing to part with if a frontline pitcher is all that stands between them and a serious run in the playoffs?

Area #2 to watch: Which prospect will surprise and give Detroit significant innings in 2010?  Lucas French, Eddie Bonine, and Alfredo Figaro combined for 12 starts in 2009, with French getting shipped off to Seattle in the Washburn deal.

Area #3 to watch:  If Willis is ineffective, will Detroit be comfortable with a starting rotation without a left-hander?

So we get to my 87 wins prediction.  Detroit won 86 wins in 2009, and had a chance at 87 with an extra game.  The 2010 Tigers are a better team then the 2009 version.  The bench is better, the bullpen is better, their prospects (both major league ready and trade-bait ready) are better.  Its questionable if their overall division is better — too many opinions vary on Chicago, and Cleveland and KC will have their challenges.  No one is talking about Detroit — that’s a good thing (in fact, i’m ecstatic that Henning is picking Detroit to finish third in the division).  In the NL, many experts think the Giants have a serious chance to contend.  San Francisco can’t hit and can’t defend; Detroit has a better offense, better defense, and arguably a better bullpen.  Besides the differences in divisions, what makes Detroit a 81 win team but the Giants a 88 win team?

Detroit has the ability to take on payroll this year and in 2011 if it helps for a deal; though their recent in-season trades haven’t gone their way.  This is flexibility many other teams don’t have.  Barring a major injury to a front line pitcher (Verlander, Porcello, Scherzer), or an irreplaceable player (Miguel Cabrera – possible MVP season; Brandon Inge – no replacement player in the system), I will personally be disappointed with less then 85 victories.

The big question:  Is 87 wins enough to make the playoffs?  This I can’t predict.  It was good enough in 2009.

Side story that will annoy everyone:  How well Nate Robertson does with the Marlins.  The NL is the place for crafty left-handed pitchers.  I’m happy Nate gets a chance to work for a 2011 contract in a league that fits him better.  I would have been happy with Nate in Detroit’s starting rotation.  But this story will drag on all year, and there is no comparison with how well Robertson does in Florida with how Robertson would have done in Detroit in 2010.  It may easily be the annoying story of the year — unless Nate is totally ineffective or gets hurt.

Annoying side story #2:  Magglio Ordonez’s march to his 2011 contract kicker.  Rinse, repeat.

Annoying story that may only annoy me: Jeremy Bonderman and his split finger fastball.  Everyone is annoyed with the mysterious ‘third pitch’, but I’ve been openly wondering why Bonderman didn’t abandon the changeup and go after the split-finger like other power pitchers.  If it works for him, that’s great… two years after I questioned why he hadn’t tried it.