April records: Tigers first month historical review
What’s the first month of the season mean? Let’s take a look at the previous decade for the Tigers. Detroit hasn’t won a division (outright) in the last 10 years, but let’s see how the Tiger’s record before May 1st looked compared to their final record. NOTE: Some seasons began in late March.
| Year | Pre-May 1st Record | Final Season Record | Division Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 6-17 | 79-83 | 3rd |
| 2001 | 8-15 | 66-96 | 4th |
| 2002 | 8-17 | 55-106 | 5th |
| 2003 | 3-21 | 43-119 | 5th |
| 2004 | 12-11 | 72-90 | 4th |
| 2005 | 11-11 | 71-91 | 4th |
| 2006 | 16-9 | 95-67 | 2nd (AL Wild Card) |
| 2007 | 14-11 | 88-74 | 2nd |
| 2008 | 13-15 | 74-88 | 5th |
| 2009 | 11-10 | 86-77 | 2nd |
| 2010 | 14-10 | ?? | ?? |
What can we learn with only 10 years of data? Well, Detroit’s never had a seasonal winning record when they didn’t have a winning record in April. Since 2000, Detroit has only had four April’s with a winning record; in those four years, Detroit had a winning season record three times. And, as exciting as the Tigers have been over the last few years… 3 winning records since 2000 really sucks.
2010′s 14-10 start is promising, but its only 15% of the season.
Jason Keith:
Although your statistical analysis is sound, your predictions are not as accurate as other media figures – i.e. Nate Ravitz of ESPN. What gives?
Jason
p.s. How long will it take to post a memorial to Ernie Harwell? I thought this was your day job?
5 May 2010, 8:47 amjohn:
Ravitz is a hack. Though he probably has incriminating photos of me. As I do of him.
Ernie’s post is coming. I can’t crank these out as fast as everyone else apparently.
5 May 2010, 2:31 pmKerry Raia:
Nice site you have here ill be sure to bookmark and visit often.
12 November 2011, 1:40 am