Tiger Geist

Getting this out _just_ before the home opener.

I purposely did not follow a lot of baseball in the winter or spring this year.  Its a different approach then i’ve taken in the past; sometimes myself (and others) are prone to over-analyzing statistics and twisting them into your desired outcome.  The easiest example is Joaquin Benoit:  Is he an average pitcher who had an outstanding year in 2010 who will regress to the mean, or did he finally put it together to deserve a massive 3 year contract?  You can spend all day arguing both sides, and usually the answer is somewhere in the middle.
So let’s look at some of the larger moves Detroit made going into 2011:

Signed:

• Joaqin Benoit (pitcher, 3 years, $16.5m)
• Victor Martinez (hitter / backup catcher/backup 1b, 4 year / $50m)
• Brad Penny (pitcher,  1 year / $3mil)

Retained:

• Magglio Ordonez (OF, 1 year / $10m)
• Brandon Inge (3B, 2 year / $11.5m)
• Jhonny Peralta (SS, 2 year / $11.25m) — pseudo retained after trading for him last year

What’s to see here?  I like the Penny move — he’s cheap and doesn’t block anyone.  I’m not a huge fan of giving a non-closer a 3 year deal, but Benoit was outstanding in 2010, and a lack of proven (healthy) options may have forced Detroit’s hand.  You can easily say “its too long”, but Detroit hasn’t had a problem eating contracts in the past, so if it turns into a 2 year deal, its not my money.

I have an issue with Victor Martinez… I’ve never been a huge fan.  Is he the best switch hitting player available so you give him $12+ million / year to not play in the field?  Seems aggressive.  But my real issue with it is it provides another blocker to some of Detroit’s up and coming talent, namely Ryan Strieby and Brennan Boesch.  Detroit appears to have enough solid outfield options in the farm, and Boesch is the worst fielder of all of them.  Strieby is already blocked by Miguel Cabrera and his own injury history.  In the “you trade prospects for proven players” mantra, maybe this makes sense; Strieby will probably be on the table for a mid-season trade to add to the team.  But Martinez will hit, there’s little doubt about that.

Magglio deserved to return to the team, and a one year contract doesn’t hurt anyone.  Same with Inge — he is what he is, he’s been around, its nice to reward a few of your players for longevity.  Peralta doesn’t do it for me — Inge seems to be slowing down at third and Peralta isn’t a fantastic shortstop.  So you have a left side of an infield that has some pop but isn’t exactly lock-down and are average hitters.  Danny Worth got a lot of praise in spring training, but Detroit does seem very thin for major league ready talent at third or short after Worth… so I’ll take this as a calculated risk to protect against injuries.  If Detroit looks to move Peralta either during the season or after it… or there is an injury to Worth, Inge or Peralta, this move will look even better.  Not a fan of the setup, but Detroit might need to see someone step up on the farm.

Here’s my problem with the moves:  Detroit has several candidates pushing their way out of the farm team and into the Majors — Danny Worth, Casper Wells, Clete Thomas, Ryan Strieby, Cale Iorg, Scott Sizemore, Andy Dirks — promising, but are they AAAA players or major league-rs?  Always a tough question that can’t be played out on paper.  But Detroit didn’t make a serious run at an all-star this offseason, such as Carl Crawford.  They said he was too expensive:

“We liked him,” Dombrowski said Thursday. “You have to like Carl Crawford. But any preliminary conversations we had … those were the type of dollars we were not prepared to go in that direction.”

I can understand that.  But to say that, and then go out and spend ~$27million in 2011 contracts on Magglio, Martinez and Peralta, all of whom are blocking cheaper talent, bothers me.  Crawford gets $142 million over 7 years, starting with $14m in 2011 (jumping to 19+ in 2012).  Sometimes I wonder about Dombrowski’s ‘build for the future’ and ‘win now’ modes, and how he mixes the two in bizarre ways.  This could just be the dreaded ‘Detroit Tax’, where every year is probably inflated, and the deal is one year too long.  But I’d rather see Crawford / Austin Jackson / Brennan Boesch across the outfield then Ryan Raburn / Jackson / Magglio.

Is Crawford’s contract expensive?  Yes, and there’s a good reason that you don’t put all of your salary into a few players.  But Dave Dombrowski split massive contracts into 4 players instead of 2 –not exactly large diversification– with what feels like an overall inferior product.  Could they have signed Crawford over Anaheim or Boston?  Point Taken.

I was all set to have a season preview ready for Thursday morning.  I was attending the Giants / A’s pre-season finale at AT&T park at noon and then heading home to finish the Tigers’ preview, and heading to Seattle for work Thursday morning.

Then Coco Crisp took his second at-bat in the top of the third inning.

My seats are past the third base dugout, near the catchers area in the bullpen, 9 rows from the field.

I was in seat 3, seat 1 being to my right and on the aisle.  Ex-friend of TigerGeist Scott was in seat #2, with #1 unoccupied.  Ex-friend Scott suggested we get some food between innings; i came back to my seat with a Sheboygan Brat.

Batting right handed, Crisp would have to be way ahead of the ball to hit us, so we dug into our food.  Sure enough, Coco is way ahead of a Madison Bumgarner pitch and pulls one about 20 rows behind us; really ahead of the pitch.  Ok, reminder to us.. lets not forget when a left hander is up, foul balls will be coming our way.  No chance Crisp can do that again.

Yup, you know what happens next.  Next pitch is a shot right at us; we were pretty convinced it was curving behind us but negative, it stopped curving and went right for our seats.  No problem; ex-friend Scott was there to catch it right?  Negative; Scott stands up to try to snag the ball and whiffs.  I have both hands holding a brat, with both hands covered in mustard and sauerkraut; i leaned forward and turned away from impact — it was my only defense.  Ball smacks into the backrest of Seat #1, ricocheted off, hits me in the back, richocheted off my back and forward 30+ feet into the Giant’s bullpen.

Damaged Seat

Thats the seat; you can see the dent in the upper left hand portion.

So that hurt quite a bit.  I took a slap shot off my sternum in a hockey game the previous week; that hurt quite a bit less then the foul ball did.  Bruise is still coming in.

I didn’t even get the ball — most people didn’t know how it got back onto the field, and the field personnel gave it to some 4 year old in the first row.  Bitches.

The next few innings gave us a few spirited conversations on how it all happened (like “hey scott, how did it miss you?  Oh, you stood up and got out of the way and didn’t try to catch it?”).  The worst part came in the fifth inning, when Scott grabbed this photo and pointed out the situation:

Yup, that’s a dude in gray socks wearing a glove, 5 feet to our right.  A few beers to dull the pain in, and I was not happy.  “Hey old man river, how about a little love next time” was shouted a few times.

I’m very anti-wearing a glove at a game (unless you’re 12 or under, and maybe only then if you’re female).  But for god’s sake — if you bring one, try to snag the ball that’s shooting into the crowd behind you.

Lots to learn here:

1. never assume anyone around you wearing a glove has any intention of catching a ball
2. never assume that anyone around you who actually wants to catch a ball has the ability to do so
3. don’t eat anything during the game that can’t be put down for an at-bat.
4. don’t listen to the old hippy lady sitting in front of you, telling you about the ’67 summer of love and how pure the drugs were at the time and that now drugs are so strong that they’ll melt your mind but back then the drugs wouldn’t melt your mind and that she’d make a great school teacher based on all of her knowledge.  This really might be the biggest lesson to learn here — old hippies are crazy.  Notice old man river / gray socks?  I bet he partied with Janis Joplin.

So that didn’t help with my general intention of enjoying the afternoon; and more alcohol consumption interrupted my otherwise high-integrity writing style.  I’m also trying to come up with a schedule that will help me continue to write — with the Giants playing in Detroit in July, and the AL Central coming to SF for inter-league, I’ll watch a good amount of Detroit’s opponents this year.  Stay tuned.

Don’t shed a tear… but I’m still alive.  Its been quiet over here at Tigergeist.  A few different reasons that don’t really matter, but here’s a big one:  Somehow my wife became a Giants fan.  The local pennant (and subsequent title run) became household TV watching.  Not bad for someone who grew up in Philadelphia.

I’ve found that I don’t do well with things such as ‘timely writing’ or ‘deadlines’.  Doesn’t suit me.  Add to the fact that last year’s Tiger’s team was not very exciting down the stretch and pretty un-controversial in their moves, and it leads to the perfect storm of lazyness hitting college football season hitting the Giants world series run.  And… I decided to stop writing at work early last season.

I’ve got a few posts left, but most likely I’ll be shuttering Tigergeist.  I love doing season previews, so I’d like to get a less in-depth one posted before the season starts.  However I was unable to attend spring training this year (breaking a 3 year run); I should return next year schedule permitting.  Overall I love writing about the Tigers and following the Tigers, but I have too hard of a time posting on time to make it useful to anyone.  Plus… I finally was able to obtain excellent Giants season tickets.  Yes it would have been much better to get those LAST YEAR, but our negotiations fell flat last winter (for the good seats, you need to purchase a seat license from someone). Who knew.  But my ability to watch Detroit’s games will be hampered by my split season pass to Giants games.  I’m still debating flying back for 4th of July to see Detroit take on SF in Copa this summer.

So its not goodbye yet; i have a few thoughts and words of advice to pass along.  Its also a difficult year to not be able to watch the team I grew up with:  Detroit has a fantastic team this year.  I still dislike their bone-headed off-season signings — Dombrowski again passes on a chance to contend every year with some short sighted free agency signings, but I LOVE this pitching staff.  If either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer can step up to be a truly dominate pitcher, and very good things will happen.

More soon…

A few days after Mike Ilitch surprised nobody with his announcement on his intention to buy the Pistons, I still doubt his motive about keeping the Pistons in Detroit.  It comes down to one thing:  strengthening the financial stability of Ilitch Holdings.  In the long run, this probably helps the Tigers; the 2011 / 2012 outlook might be a little more grim.  Let’s discuss.

Here’s what we know:

1. Joe Louis Arena is crumbling, and the Red Wings can move out at any time.
2. Bill Davidson’s widow is unhappy and wants her cash
3. The NBA has a >50% chance for a lockout heading into the 2011 / 2012 season.
4. The music industry in consolidating (Ticketmaster & Live Nation), and live entertainment is now a significant portion of musician’s deals (called 360 deals).

How are these connected?  The Red Wings need a better stadium with better amenities… which generate more revenue.  The Wings aren’t going to pay for a new stadium on their own (no reason to invest in Joe Louis either).  Ilitch buys the Pistons, he gets the Palace.  This is a no-brainer.  But it connects to the rest of the story…

Karen Davidson is extremely unhappy about her deal and not happy about her dead husband’s philanthropic endeavers.  She wants to sell the pistons and do whatever it is rich people do.  However… the Pistons aren’t moving.  They have a strong fan base and a solid stadium; the owners would never approve a new owner who would move the team to, say Vegas.  Is this speculation?  Maybe… but Joe Dumars turned down a job offer from the NJ Nets and their new russian billionaire owner.  If the Pistons were on shaky ground in the Detroit area, Dumars would have bolted.

I’m not positive the Golden State Warrior sale price will be much of a factor in determining the Piston’s value; Larry Ellison isn’t bidding this time.  The league probably won’t approve a move, so there would be limited non-local interest.  From interviews with the new GSW owner, the league owners will vote on the new ownership in September time frame, and they would take over soon after.  (Thoughts:  You’re looking at January 1st, at the earliest, that Ilitch could take control of the Pistons.)  Also from interviews, it sounds as if very few of the old coaching / front office will be fired this year at Golden State.  Why?  The lockout.

Players don’t get paid during the lockout.  But team management does.  If GSW fired Don Nelson and hired, uh, Tom Izzo, they have to pay Izzo.  And the GM.  And the GM’s secretary…. etc.  Golden State had to sell because the clock was ticking; they were losing value the closer they got to the lockout.  Its very very difficult to get financing, and it appears a new owner is staring at a $10-20million loss in your first year due to a lockout.  Karen Davidson has the same problem, but without the interest of a man worth $37 billion.  She has Mike Ilitch.

So Mike Ilitch can swoop in with a low ball offer, and he gets the Pistons and the Palace.  Maybe he can make a small profit at the end of the 2010/2011 basketball season.  The following season there’s no basketball.  But wait!  The Red Wings suddenly move into the Palace and generate even more revenue then previous years.  Part of the lost revenue can be mitigated; other potential owners don’t have this revenue stream.

Mike Ilitch may not even like basketball;  maybe  he turns the team over to his son Chris.  But let’s not forget an increasingly profitable business:  Palace Entertainment.  With the purchase of the Pistons, Ilitch Holdings now controls the south eastern lower michigan entertainment industry.  Big big business.  You want to play the Detroit area?  You have to deal with Olympia Entertainment (oh yes, that’s Ilitch Holdings).

With the purchase, Ilitch Holdings would control the following venues (via Olympia Entertainment and Palace Entertainment):

• The Palace of Auburn Hills
• Pine Knob DTE Energy Music Theater  (they changed the name?  Damn it)
• Meadowbrook
• Comerica Park
• Fox Theater
• Cobo Arena
• Masonic Temple

Bill Graham would be very jealous; that’s quite the lineup.  And quite the income.  Ilitch is the one person who could purchase the Pistons solely for Palace Entertainment, only to spin the team off in 5-10 years.  (Speaking of Bill Graham, the one venue Ilitch wouldn’t control would be where he made his name, the Fillmore auditorium, formerly the State Theater… and we’ll note that Graham’s Fillmore auditorium(s) were in San Francisco and New York).

One factor that I won’t rule out in this investment:  Talent acquisition.

Tech Writer Robert Cringely has written previously about why Microsoft needed to acquire Yahoo (a deal which ultimately fell through):  MS needed Yahoo’s talent base, talent it didn’t have internally.  Bill Davidson built a winner in both basketball and hockey; he was the first to build the modern NBA arena.  Mike Ilitch has already hired Tom Wilson; what other talent from either the Pistons or Palace Entertainment could benefit Ilitch Holdings?  Again, Dumars stuck around.  There has to be a solid support system in Auburn Hills.

And back to the Tigers blog.. how does all of this affect the Tigers?

There is a lot of question as to how Detroit can be a mid-market team with a big-market payroll.  The assumption is that Mike Ilitch (or Ilitch Holdings) is pitching in some extra cash;  of course this can’t be verified because no one is talking.  But if sports financing is indeed harder to obtain, and if Ilitch buys the Pistons with the understanding they’re going to have to lose money immediately due to a strike year, the 2011 and 2012 Tiger payrolls may ultimately suffer.

Based on what the Pistons and Palace Entertainment has to offer, Mike Ilitch would be crazy not to jump on it.  But it is an acquisition that would only improve Ilitch Holdings, not the city of Detroit, the Pistons, nor the Tigers.

You may have noticed that my “good” posting about a Mike Ilitch / Pistons ownership didn’t sound that rosy.  Probably because i personally believe that, over a 10-20 year period, this is a bad move.

First, I think its a great idea for a shared stadium between the Pistons and the Red Wings.  The problem is they already have one; its in Auburn Hills.  Someone explain to me why its a good idea to continue to build stadiums where no one lives?  Without getting into the “green” movement, you’re building a stadium 15 miles from the nearest fans and without public transportation.  If Mike Ilitch is paying for it, he can build the stadium wherever he wants.  As a business man who would ‘own’ the Palace with the purchase of the Pistons, I’d be quite surprised if he paid for a new stadium himself, and essentially abandon the Palace.

Second, Mr Ilitch is 81 years old.  He could easily not live to see a new stadium built.  How comfortable are we as fans with his son Chris, or the Ilitch Holding company?  They can deliver a hockey championship, but the rest is unknown.  Let’s remember that Mike Ilitch bought the Tigers in 1992.  1992, not 2006.  Those super shitty Tiger teams were on Ilitch.  Here is what the Ilitch empire is founded on:

• Shitty Pizza
• Casinos
• Sports Franchises

Are those rock solid?  Maybe, maybe not.  Why do I bring this up?

As a San Francisco resident, I am constantly reminded of the great SF 49er teams… and the great demise of the franchise once Eddie Debartolo had to walk away.  His family partially lost their fortune in a real estate downturn (1987), and Eddie had some poor (IE illegal) choices that caused him to hand the franchise to his sister.  The franchise hasn’t recovered.

The Ilitch’s have seven children.  What if there is a divorce (Los Angeles Dodgers)?  What if one or more children want to diversify their shares?  What if Chris Ilitch wants to prove himself and step out from his father’s shadow, only to make poor choices?

The family issue is more important to fans then you might realize.  Who in Detroit has the ability to purchase one of the three franchises?  What if Ilitch Holdings had to diversify one or more of the teams to survive? If Ilitch Holdings needed to sell all three franchises in 15 years, what are the chances the owners of all three are local, and don’t want to pull a Seattle Supersonics / Oklahoma Thunder move?  Would the combination of three pro sports teams be a short term guarantee to the location of the franchises, but in reality a long term risk?

I feel the city of Detroit cannot support four pro sports franchises downtown.  Ilitch moving the Pistons downtown may threaten fan support, and in the long run threaten the support of all three franchises*.  While this may be a shrewd business deal if Ilitch Holdings can get a tax break or free money to build a stadium, Mike Ilitch has no experience running a basketball team.  And the Pistons don’t need a solid management style; Joe Dumars built a winner less then 10 years ago.  In fact, Bill Davidson won an NHL championship in 2004.

The Tigers?  As noted previously, all teams should be operated separately, similarly to how I imagine the Tigers are being run currently.  However, I’m extremely nervous about how successful four professional sports teams can be in a town where none of the fans actually live, especially when the pistons fan base has been in a northern suburb for the last 30 years.  A possibly unsuccessful franchise, coupled with any potential family strife / pizza sales issues, could threaten the Tigers stability.  Again, it should be noted:  the late Bill Davidson won a championship in both hockey and basketball; Mike Ilitch has not had a successful run as the Tiger’s owner.  How will diversifying his interest into another sports franchise help the Tigers?

I hate to be Debbie Downer on this issue, but I’m not sure I see how, long term, this is a smart move for fans or the city.

*NOTE:  I leave the Lions out of this because, as I’ve said before, I think Detroit is a football town and the Lions, if successful, can write their own ticket.

Here’s the good news about a possible deal with Mike Ilitch purchasing the Pistons.

First, a possible new dual-purpose stadium near Fox Town, Comerica Park, and Ford Field.  The Pistons move back downtown; the Red Wings are rescued from Joe Louis Arena.  What does this give us?

365 Days / years.  10 Football home games (8 regular season, 2 pre-season, god help us for the playoffs).  Possible Big 10 championship game in the future.  Bowl Game….

Baseball?  81 games.  Basketball?  41 games plus playoffs.  Hockey?  41 games plus playoffs.

Worst case, you have 174 nights of sports games.  174 nights of fans heading downtown to the same area.

Speaking of area, ever been to Philly?  All the teams sports stadiums are next to each other.  Public transportation?  Check.  Everything next to each other.  Detroit could mimic the Broad Street Sports Complex.  Minus the public transportation of course, because that will NEVER happen in Detroit.

What’s a big draw?  The Red Wings.  So why not sign a deal with Ford Field for a few games?  Build a new stadium downtown, and get a deal with the Lions.  Chicago coming to town for a big game in January?  Play it at Ford Field in front of 60,000 fans.  Why not?  Be flexible.

Speaking of the new dual-purpose stadium, the Ilitch’s wouldn’t have to rush it.  The Red Wings could easily upgrade to the Palace for 2 – 5 years as the new stadium is sorted out.  Fans win.  Pistons are unaffected.

Second, it guarantees the Pistons will be a local team with solid ownership.  This would be a great thing, but again I’m not convinced the Pistons would move with any new owner.  And while Mike Ilitch knows how to build a hockey winner, the jury is still out on his baseball skills.

How does this affect the Tigers?  It doesn’t.  All good businesses are operated separately.  The Tiger’s payroll shouldn’t be affected by how the Motor City Casino is doing.  Of course, this isn’t always the case, which I’ll discuss in “The Bad”.

Is there a big win with a possible Detroit sports television network?  I’m undecided.  There are a few things that, as a current non-resident to the state, that I find to be true:  1) Fox Sports Detroit overpaid for the rights to the Tigers, and 2) Detroit and the state of Michigan is a football hotbed;  A successful Lions team could overshadow the rest of the major sports.

#1 is a gigantic revenue source for the Tigers; can it be replicated with a local network?  I’m not sure.  Outside of Michigan, you have Chicago and Cleveland, both of which have baseball and basketball teams.

#2 has certain factors:  NFL controls its own contracts, and the Big 10 network controls the University of Michigan and Michigan State.

With those noted exceptions, the YES network is a huge money maker for the Yankees, and the Atlanta Braves have been on the forefront of TV and the related money revenue for years.  I’ll give Ilitch the benefit of the doubt that owning three local professional sports teams could be a financial windfall for TV revenue.  And I’ll be honest that the Lions may suck until I die, which makes the other three pro sports teams better draws.

Quick Tangent:  A three part post.  The Truth, the Good, the Bad.  No ugly. 

Mike Ilitch, the Pistons, and Detroit:  The Truth

Here’s what we know:  Mike Ilitch has indicated an interest in the Pistons (via the Detroit News):

“Marian and I grew up here, we raised our family here, and we built our businesses here. Detroit is our home. When I read in the paper there was the chance that this great sports town could lose one of its professional sports franchises, I just didn’t see how we could let that happen. The Pistons, just like the Red Wings, Tigers and the Lions, have a rich and storied tradition in this community, and they’ve brought pride to fans and our community. You all know I love sports — all sports, from amateur sports to the various pro sports we’ve had the privilege to be involved with, and like a lot of others I’m sure, I really want to see the Pistons remain the Detroit Pistons.

“We talked about it internally, and when you take our 33 years of experience in professional sports, our commitment to this community, our passion for winning and pursuing championships, and you couple that with the opportunity to have a local, engaged owner for the Pistons, we decided to take a run at it. We believe we could bring a lot to the table that could be tremendously positive for the Pistons franchise, the NBA, and the fans of this community. So, today, we formally notified the Detroit Pistons that we have interest in purchasing the team. This is a required first-step and we look forward to the opportunity to move forward in the process.”

The way this is worded, it sounds like Mr & Mrs Ilitch woke up last week and decided the Pistons would be something they’d like to own.

No.

This has been in the works for a while now.  The Red Wings need a stadium to play in.  The Pistons need a new owner.  No local Detroiter can afford the Pistons (sans Ilitch), and Bill Davidson’s widow needs to sell.  Someone has been buying up land locally.  Tom Wilson is employed by Mike Ilitch.  I’ve been talking about this with friends since Mr. Davidson’s death; this is a slam dunk for Ilitch.  They didn’t think of this last week; this is a business move.  The final straw?  The Golden State Warriors sale.

The Warriors went for ~$450 million.  For the team only.  A team stuck in Oakland for 8 – 10 more years.  The pistons will draw less than that in their sale, even with a stadium to go with it.  Why?  Larry Ellison isn’t bidding on the Pistons.  And contrary to any belief, the Pistons aren’t going to Las Vegas;  if there is a team moving to Vegas, it’ll be the Kings.  So what happened?  Mike Ilitch waited for the Warriors to be sold to get a value on the franchise, but more importantly, who was bidding.  Two different teams, different potential owners.  The Pistons are Ilitch’s to lose.

The possibilities are exciting for the state as well as fans:  the Red Wings could move to the Palace while a new stadium is built; the Pistons are guaranteed to stay in the area.

But the reality is this:  The Pistons aren’t going anywhere.  Too many NBA teams have financial issues and little fan support (New Orleans, Charlotte); the Pistons aren’t going to be sold and moved.  I applaud Mike Ilitch’s thoughts and statement on possible ownership, but he doesn’t need to save the Pistons from a diabolical owner looking to move the team to Hong Kong.

The Truth:  This was a strategic financial decision, not something that was made to appease the Detroit sports fans.  And its been in the works for months.

For little risk, Detroit traded for Jhonny Peralta today. For two weeks, Peralta is the Tiger’s average to below average third baseman. Upon Brandon Inge’s return, Peralta becomes Detroit’s below average shortstop or DH.

Based on his age, Peralta could turn it around. But you assume that, going into a major contract year at age 28, Jhonny would have enough motivation to have a career year. Right.

My biggest problem with the trade? Earlier this year I thought to myself, “I feel bad for the Cleveland fans who have to convince themselves that Jhonny Peralta is a good player”. Now I’m trying to convince myself.

On one side, Detroit removes one rookie bat from the lineup. On the other side, Jeff Larish is probably going to hit .250 on his own. No reason to grab Perslta to do the same.

This pretentious ponderous collection of religious rock psalms is enough to prompt the question, ‘What day did the Lord create Spinal Tap, and couldn’t he have rested on that day too?’

–Marty DiBergi, reading a review of Spinal Tap’s previous album… from This is Spinal Tap

As Tiger fans we have to wonder, why Friday night’s game was rained out, yet Saturday night’s game was played?  Ugh.  Couple of points to cover:  the injuries, the replacements, and what’s next.

Injuries

Magglio Ordonez has been lost for 6-8 weeks sliding into home… where he was thrown out.  Carlos Guillen was lost due to a sore calf.  Both were placed on the 15 day disabled list; Guillen presumably will return in August.  Guillen’s always playing on borrowed time, but Magglio’s injury is pretty devastating for both himself and the team.  This probably puts a halt on any major acquisitions on the trade front, and Ordonez’s contract won’t vest.  More on this later.

Replacements

Jeff Larish and Will Rhymes have been called up.  Detroit loses an outfielder and an infielder, and call up two infielders.  You know the deal with both players… Larish is an average fielder who has flashes of power but hasn’t proven to be more then a AAAA player.  Rhymes is a scrappy player who was looked as a possible replacement for Placido Polanco a few years ago, until Scott Sizemore passed him as a prospect.  Nothing has been announced yet for the 40 man roster.  My guess is Billy Buckner will be dropped; by my count Detroit only has 39 players on the 40 man roster, so it should be that simple.

What’s next?

I imagine Ryan Raburn and his dogshit .209 batting average head back to the outfield full time.  Larish will get regular at-bats at DH and third base.  Brennan Boesch will move immediately to right field and left will be some combo of Damon and Raburn.  Miguel Cabrera will play first base, and probably hit more home runs and RBI’s then the rest of the infield, which will be nearly interchangeable.  And, we should not forget, somehow Don Kelly is still in the major leagues.

On the trade front, I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit made a move towards the future — the Tigers still don’t have a long term answer at third or short, and just freed up major resources in Magglio’s $15mil 2011 contract.  I wouldn’t expect Detroit to dump Damon for no reason — they’re still short an outfielder.  There is also a strategy in bringing up more young talent before they’re ready — Ryan Strieby is still a hot prospect who could be moved in the off-season;  he can only diminish his value by hitting .200 in September for a third place team.

For Magglio and his contract, I would still expect Detroit to offer Magglio a one year deal in the off-season worth $8mil (copying Johnny Damon’s 2010 contract).  It was a costly slide, but Magglio should get rewarded by the Tigers with a one year deal.

Disappointing news tonight, when  Brandon Inge was lost for 4-6 weeks with a broken bone in his left hand.  In a couple of different areas, this is a difficult injury for Detroit.

First, Detroit has no replacements that are true third basemen.  Jeff Larish ? Carlos Guillen?  Brent Dlugach?  Danny Worth?  Some can hit, some can field.  None are naturals.

Second, the Tigers’ offensive upgrades that were most likely being targeted in the trade market (for 2010 and beyond) were at short stop.  Now the need to find a serious offensive short stop to offset third base may be heightened.

Last, Detroit has no third baseman ready to play in 2011 under contract.  The Tigers (apparently) have not entered contract extension talks with Inge, whose deal runs out after this season.  As mentioned above, there are no real replacements in the system.  Any extension for Inge would have been done with a better understanding of his health after two knee surgeries before the season; it becomes difficult to see where Brandon is offensively if he doesn’t return until September.  In the same respect, any replacement won’t have enough time to showcase their skills for a full time 2011 gig.

On the other hand, Detroit may already have 2011 under consideration.  (Hat tip to Billfer for first mentioning this, though i’ll go one step further)…. maybe Detroit was willing to let Inge walk in 2011 and turn third base over to Carlos Guillen, leaving second for Scott Sizemore.  Inge will not sniff his current salary of $6million next year, and Guillen is already under contract.  This may just be accelerating the process… though Guillen just isn’t much of a fielder anymore.

For the first time this season, Detroit will have to start looking at itself and figuring out where it wants to go.  If Johnny Damon is only going to DH, I can easily see him being moved.  Don Kelly and Ryan Raburn aren’t hitting well enough on a team that is struggling with pitching;  will some of Toledo’s power hitters get a call soon?  It is becoming increasingly clear.. any move Detroit makes must be a move that improves the 2011 team.