Tiger Geist

If you’ve read this space before, you may be aware of my fateful evening of not-attending Justin Verlander’s no-hitter in 2007.  I absolutely blame my wonderful wife for that; I had ever intention of going to that game and was held back.

Last year, I mentioned how I gave my friend the option to attend one of two Giants games (a friday or saturday night); Jonathan Sanchez night or Matt Cain night.  My friend picked Matt Cain.  Sanchez threw a no-hitter on the friday night game; Cain was hit by a line drive and out of the Saturday game before the third inning.

Earlier this spring, I promised myself I’d go to a game at Dodger Stadium; when i realized Detroit was playing there in May, I made plans.  Going to LA!  Woohoo!  Found some friends who were interested, and we planned it out… and guess what?  Verlander would be pitching on a Sunday.  Let’s go Tigers!

For over a month, the schedule has held up;  Verlander was still scheduled to pitch on the Sunday game.  Then, disaster struck… Monday’s White Sox game was rained out.  Verlander gets bumped to Oakland’s game tonight… and the Detroit pitching in Dodger stadium comes down to Dontrelle Willis, Armando Galarraga, and Rick Porcello.

Yes, I’m still going to Dodger stadium, going to catch Porcello.  But with my schedule, I can’t make the game in Oakland tonight.  Once I found Verlander was pitching, I knew one thing:  He’s going to toss a gem.  No doubt about it; the baseball gods have been against me for three years now, and there is no reason to think tonight will be any different.  Because the only reason I won’t attend tonight’s game will be MY choice/conflicts (not my wife’s or my friends), Verlander may throw a 12 inning perfect game.

That’s just the way it goes sometimes.  Throw in Dallas Braden pitching for Oakland, and who knows what might happen.

NOTE:  I had no connection to Braden’s perfect game in Oakland two weeks ago… if I had, i probably would have given up baseball altogether.

I’m not really sure where the story line is here.  Detroit takes three of four from New York, splits the first two games with Boston (the victory in walk-off fashion in extra innings), but its feels like the big news is the roster moves announced after the game.  Let’s discuss:

• Casper Wells was called up for Alfredo Figaro Friday.  He hasn’t been demoted yet (as was expected with Armando Galarraga getting the start Sunday).  Wells is struggling at the plate, but is an upgrade over Ryan Raburn in the field.
• Max Scherzer just isn’t helping the team with his starts, but getting through five innings Friday night after getting bombed in the first was helpful by not killing the bullpen.  He was demoted to Toledo tonight, not surprisingly.
• Dontrelle Willis continues to baffle when he doesn’t have scheduled work.  Hard to read too much into tonight’s start, except he just sucked.  Thursday’s scheduled start in Oakland (his hometown) will be more telling… if he isn’t sick again.
• Danny Worth is getting promoted with Galarraga; Scott Sizemore goes to Toledo.  The surprise move is Worth; he’s done little to suggest he might excel in the majors at this stage in his career.

So some thoughts on what’s happening on the team with these moves.

Carlos Guillen is your new starting second baseman.  Its surprising, but maybe it shouldn’t be.  I actually suggested it last August (though it was more of a “i wouldn’t be surprised”, and definitely not a “it should happen”).  I have more thoughts on this, but we could easily chalk this up as “should have offered Placido Polanco arbitration”.  For Guillen, its hard to say how much of this is due to Detroit needing his bat in the lineup, or the front office not wanting to eat Guillen’s salary.  Probably quite a bit of both.  I have no idea how this will turn out.

Brandon Inge has been awful at the plate.  I don’t know if Detroit plans on using Worth or Don Kelly more at third, but I may be eating my words on the thought that Detroit would extend a contract to Inge before the all-star break.  More likely, Detroit may make a free agent splash at that position this winter.

No real thoughts on Scott Sizemore.  We may never know how much his ankle is holding him back; Leyland’s been reluctant enough to start Sizemore on cold weather days that the ankle could be affecting his offense.

Brennan Boesch continues to shine, and he’s actually improving.  This is all going to end eventually, and there was an interesting discussion at blessyouboys about it today.  I know scouts say there is a hole in Boesch’s swing… its just so interesting that two of the best franchises in the league (Yankees and Boston) can’t seem to exploit it.  Yes Boesch will come back down to earth, and probably even struggle.  But here’s the point:  Boesch has hit exceptionally well when other parts of the Tigers lineup (Inge, Magglio Ordonez, every catcher) have struggled.  Boesch being hot in late April and May have covered for other parts of the team cooling down.  Let’s just hope that as he cools off, Mags, Inge, and any sort of catcher can start hitting.  This much we can be certain of:  Heading into and out of spring training, Brennan Boesch was not Detroit’s top prospect; he wasn’t even Detroit’s top left handed hitting outfield prospect (more likely Clete Thomas, who didn’t make the team only due to having a option left).  But he’s made the most out of his opportunities.  Much like Matt Joyce in 2008?  Maybe… but Joyce was NEVER this hot in the majors.  Not by a long shot.

In SF Giants land, I attended Friday night’s victory over lowly Houston.  Ex-Tiger Andres Torres shined, and was a monster on the base paths.  It reminds you why Austin Jackson can be a team’s worst nightmare with such speed.  It is also easy to imagine how Bengie Molina (on a one year contract) could help Detroit this year.  Molina is holding down the fort for Buster Posey in SF… I’d suggest Detroit exploring a swap with Gerald Laird and some surplus outfielder for Molina.  This assumes Laird isn’t in the 2011 Tiger plans, which I assume he isn’t.

As a sports fan, we’re in an interesting era for baseball:  Who do we trust, who cheated?  Is anyone currently cheating?  Ok, let’s pretend everyone now is clean and clear.  How do we deal with players from 1990 until 2008?  Asterisks for any home run champions?

Well the baseball media has let us know.  No hall of fame for cheaters!  Who cheated?  They don’t know!  Because they didn’t ask enough questions during the steroid era.  I mean, man oh man, Mark McGwire sure confused everyone with those Andro bottles, didn’t he?  No, the media insists, if they knew better, they would have reported it differently.  But the players just did everything they could to hide the truth.  And Bud Selig?  Yeah, he’s the devil!  He handed out steroids to every player so the owners would make more money!  And the writers, they just didn’t know any better!

Yes it was all bullshit.  But the writers have been standing behind this facade for a few years now.  Finally, as fans, we get to see their true colors:  Brian Cushing is caught cheating, and the AP writers get a chance to revote on his rookie of the year award.  Cushing, who is no stranger to steroid rumors, is caught… in September of 2009.  Still plays the rest of the year.  Wins rookie of the year.  No problem, AP decides they can revote on the award.  The result?  Cushing wins again.

Are you kidding me?

Yes, these are football writers.  But how does anyone trust baseball writers?  These are the guys who get high and mighty about hall of fame votes (some writers refuse to vote for anyone on the first ballot, making a mockery of the entire process).  Essentially, I’ve lost faith in all sports media.  Baseball writers ignored steroids for over a decade.  Football writers voted twice for a cheating player, once with full knowledge of the testing (and test failures).  Baseball writers jumped on some random blogger last summer for suggesting a player was juicing. What was their issue?

No one outside of the media can accuse someone of steroids!

Why?

Because only the sports media is qualified to ignore the evidence.

Lots of baseball to process for one day.  It started off with Detroit calling up Alfredo Figaro and optioning Ryan Raburn to Toledo.  I like the demotion of Raburn; he deserves some at-bats to get his swing back.  I am interested to see where he will play in the field for Toledo.  The promotion of Figaro makes little sense if he’s to be used in a bullpen role.  So, if you need some innings out of the ‘pen, you call up a starter?  No pressure there kid.  I’m willing to give Figaro a pass in the nightcap, unable to clean up Phil Coke’s mess before the game got out of hand in the ninth inning, but I question if the expectations were a little high for him to succeed in that position.  If the callup was for a spot start this weekend, it would have made more sense.  Now I’m very confused.

Both Rick Porcello and Jeremy Bonderman were very good today (to be fair, I saw all of the first game and the first half of the second).  Best start of the year for both?  Quite possibly, especially considering the competition.  Let’s just hope they’re both back on track.

Neither game saw a great Tiger offense, but I’m still impressed with Brennan Boesch thus far.  And even though he’s had a poor offensive series, Derek Jeter is awesome.  I saw Jeter play in a high school all-star game at old Tiger Stadium his senior year in high school, and its amazing how far he’s come since then.

Thursdays game has a dream pitching matchup:  Sabathia vs Verlander.  And it has a nightmare weather forecast.

On the night Detroit was honoring Ernie Harwell, Dontrelle Willis was too sick to start.  I’m not exactly sure why Brad Thomas gets these starts, but for the second time this year, Thomas found himself starting on short notice, this time against the Yankees.  The MudHens were in Durham; you have to wonder if they were in Toledo, if Detroit would have made a roster move for a starter.  I’m also not sure why Eddie Bonine doesn’t get these starts, though both he & Thomas saw action.

My main disagreement is… why was Joel Zumaya brought out to pitch the eighth?  If Zumaya runs out there in the sixth and seventh, Perry and Coke should have been used immediately in the eighth.  Worst case, once A-Rod singled to leave off the eighth, bring in someone else.  I’m sure Leyland wanted to save his bullpen, but that nearly cost Detroit the victory.  If your rotation is Zumaya / Perry / Valverde in the 7th/8th/9th, stick to it.  If you need arms, make a roster move after the game.

There’s always the question about who gets demoted when Carlos Guillen returns from injury.  Brennan Boesch is sure making his case to not only stay on the 25 man roster, but play ahead of Guillen.  Congrats Brennan, you were intentionally walked this evening so New York could pitch to Detroit’s $6million third baseman.  Fans used to make jokes like “Boesch is hitting so well that Guillen is starting to feel better already”, but in this case, I’m sure Detroit would love for Guillen to limp around until Boesh cools off.  Carlos is getting paid this year and next whether or not he has a stellar 2010.  Its also amazing that Detroit has to figure out who gets sent down (most likely Boesch, though Guillen can bat right handed and this could put Raburn on the hot seat), while Adam Everett, Gerald Laird and Alex Avila are all struggling mightily.  Chances Carlos Guillen sees some time at second base?  Zero.  Chances Detroit makes an infield move around Everett or Sizemore?  Probably increasing.

Random Notes:

• Update from my earlier post on attendance:  The combination between the Yankees and the Ernie Harwell Tribute saw Detroit’s third largest home attendance, at 34,365.  Pretty good for a Monday night.
• There has been a lot of talk about speeding up the game, and about how ’slow’ the Yankees play.  This was Detroit’s third longest home game of the season, at 3 hours and 16 minutes.  I’m not sure if the tribute played into this.
• Who would be considered Detroit’s starting short stop?  Adam Everett leads Ramon Santiago in starts at short, 17 starts to 15.  Santiago leads Everett in innings at short, 147 to 132.
• I’m suddenly very interested in Dontrelle’s next start.  Lynn Henning is reporting it will be as planned, with Willis starting next Saturday.  If this changes, it could seriously impact my trip to Dodger Stadium this month.  As it stands, Justin Verlander is starting the final game of the Los Angeles series, which should be a great game to attend in a historic venue.  If Willis bumps everyone back one day, Verlander misses the series.

I fantasized about a Roy Oswalt deal over the weekend, and I’m also well aware of Oakland’s attendance problem… as Detroit’s starting pitching still appears shaky, I’ve started thinking about Ben Sheets as well.  But how are the Tigers doing in terms of revenue / attendance, and could they afford such a move?

Its still early in the year (Detroit has played 31 games, but only 12 at home).  Through those 12 games, Detroit has averaged 26,419 fans.  What about 2009, through the first 12?  Just over 26,878.  The fans have been relatively consistent, year over year.

The good news is the teams that have visited Comerica park before tonight have been… lacking.. in excitement.  Last year saw the Yankees come to town during the third home series; 2010 has the first major draw (New York) coming in home game #13.  To be fair, that first 2009 series with New York averaged only 27,550 in attendance; not exactly a major jump.

So what does that mean?  Well, including dead weight, Detroit has roughly the same payroll through May of 2010 as they did in 2009 ($134mil in 2010, $130mil in 2009).  2009 saw Detroit take on a few extra millions in Washburn and Huff, but that happened later in the year.  The likelihood that Detroit can take on major salary in the form of a trade is unlikely at this time.  They could offer up more talent and make the trade partner eat salary, but I find that doubtful at the moment.  As Detroit was 4th in the league in attendance in 2009, it would be unlikely that they can expect a large jump in attendance this year, due to their already supportive fan base.

While I’d love for Detroit to make a move on a talented player, taking on more salary this year seems unlikely. The dip in 2011 payroll could allow for a splash, either in the free agent market or taking on salary via trade.

Side Note:  Excited for Dallas Braden?  He is scheduled to pitch against Detroit in Oakland, May 20th.  Might have to skip work that day…

Not much to say about a game that really didn’t happen, as Detroit was rained out at Cleveland.  13 runs scored in under five innings Nothing to see here.  Good news for Jeremy Bonderman, who pitched but didn’t pitch in the game that didn’t happen.

Bad news for Detroit.  Their starting pitching continues to struggle, sans (gasp) Justin Verlander and Dontrelle Willis.  Can’t really be sure what is in store for the rest of the year.  Also you can’t be sure that Detroit has major-league ready pitchers in the farm system (Armando Galarraga, is he ready again?).  With that, plus Buster Olney hinting that Roy Oswalt is available (though wtih a monster contract), could Detroit be looking to make a deal?

My guess?  No, Detroit can’t afford it.  But it would make sense.  Oswalt is making $15million this year and $16 next, though apparently has had some back issues (Dear Jarrod Washburn:  I still dislike you and your bum knee).  This year’s contract would be the issue though; Detroit has money to spend in 2011 and not a lot of pitching reinforcements with Willis and Bonderman on the last year of their contracts.  Detroit does have enough young outfield talent to offer an offensively-challenged Astros team, which could allow Houston to absorb some of Oswalt’s massive contract.

My fear is Detroit might wait too long to find pitching help (or, conversely, wait too long to find out if their rotation gels).  The AL East is again looking to own the wild-card; if the pitching doesn’t come around, can Detroit wait until the trade deadline?

I’m not nearly as sentimental as most people.  But i’ll try to put this into perspective.

When you’re growing up, you latch onto certain things that are familiar, and based on limited experience, you add descriptors such as “greatest” without really knowing.  As you get older, generally your heart gets broken as you realize that your descriptor doesn’t really hold true.

My first Tiger game was in the summer of ‘84.  Detroit was the best team ever — I was young and didn’t know any better.  Kirk Gibson was my Tiger.  Alan Trammel was the greatest shortstop of all time.  Madonna and the pope were still on speaking terms.  Over the years, I realized that Trammel wasn’t the greatest shortstop of all time.  He wasn’t even the best shortstop in the american league;  I would be devastated that Cal Ripken Jr was leading in the all-star voting.  “What is wrong with people?  Haven’t they ever seen Trammel play?” I’d ask my father, when in reality, my logic was flawed; I had never seen Ripken play.

Steve Yzerman was a fantastic hockey player.  Eventually I had to learn that he wasn’t the greatest player in the world.  Isiah Thomas… Rinse.  Repeat.

Obviously Ernie was Ernie.  I loved Ernie.  To be fair, I love Paul Carey.  I went on a trip to Nashville when I was 10ish with my father, back when the Nashville Sounds were a Tiger’s minor league team.  We put the game on and the broadcasters were awful.  I asked my dad why the announcers were so bad.. I mean, I love Ernie Harwell.  Why don’t these guys sound like Ernie?  My father tried to explain it to me… “Not everyone is as good as Ernie and Paul…”  Thats when I started processing that maybe Ernie was different.

I moved to San Francisco in 2000; the Giants had Jon Miller.  I’ve already written about my love for Jon Miller, and I always liked talking to Giants fans when they ask me about Miller.  ”What do you think about Miller” they ask, since they know he’s good.  ”He’s the best… since Ernie Harwell retired“. They’re shocked at my answer.  Am I a homer?  No, I reply, Jon Miller certainly is that good.  And Ernie Harwell certainly was that much better.

Sometimes you learn early on that your idols aren’t what you thought.  It happened quickly on some players — Chet Lemon, my sister’s favorite, didn’t keep his ‘greatest center fielder ever’ title long in our house.  Others take time — I’m still coming to grips with Michigan football.

Sometimes, if you’re lucky, you have it reversed.  Ernie wasn’t Steve Yzerman.

Ernie Harwell was Gretzky.

What’s the first month of the season mean?  Let’s take a look at the previous decade for the Tigers.  Detroit hasn’t won a division (outright) in the last 10 years, but let’s see how the Tiger’s record before May 1st looked compared to their final record.  NOTE:  Some seasons began in late March.

What can we learn with only 10 years of data?  Well, Detroit’s never had a seasonal winning record when they didn’t have a winning record in April.  Since 2000, Detroit has only had four April’s with a winning record; in those four years, Detroit had a winning season record three times.  And, as exciting as the Tigers have been over the last few years… 3 winning records since 2000 really sucks.

2010’s 14-10 start is promising, but its only 15% of the season.

Quite an impressive series finishing up Sunday, with Detroit completing a three-game sweep against the Angels.  A quick look at the series:

April 30:  Tigers 10, Angels 6

Very exciting game, though you almost felt Detroit would need all 10 runs to pull this one out.  Big story was the rookies:  Austin Jackson going 5 for 5, Scott Sizemore and Brennan Boesch hitting their career home runs.  Boesch’s home run trot is pure enjoyment.  Gerald Laird also hit his first home run of the season (though this was his only hit of the series, going 1-8).

May 1:  Tigers 3, Angels 2

Johnny Damon had three of Detroit’s seven hits, including the game winning home run, his first as a Tiger (notice a trend?).  Ryan Perry collects his first major league win.  I didn’t catch this game, but Bonderman seemed effective enough, allowing 2 runs on 10 hits over 6 innings.

May 2:  Tigers 5, Angels 1

The Rookies continue to play well, but the story is clearly Justin Verlander.  Over 8 innings of one-run ball.  Austin Jackson, Alex Avila and Scott Sizemore had multiple hits each.  Detroit pulls within a half of a game of Minnesota.  This is the first time Alex Avila caught Verlander, which is a promising sign that gives Jim Leyland more flexibility with his roster.

Quick thoughts:

• This Austin Jackson character can play.
• Its going to be very difficult for Detroit to return Brennan Boesch to Toledo.  He could cool down a bit, but he’s been everything Detroit needed in the five spot.
• Johnny Damon followed two fantastic days at the plate with two awful strikeouts Sunday.
• Ryan Raburn’s defense continues to frustrate me.