Tiger Geist

I take a ‘vacation’ to Michigan and I find myself more out of touch with what’s happened to the Tigers over the last week then when I’m at home in San Francisco.  I’m still digesting the changes.  here are my current thoughts:

• The team is 7-5 since the all-star break.  They’ve gained a game on the division leader, even though they lost a three game series to them.  That’s progress.
• Todd Jones is out at closer.  For now.  It shows Leyland at least recognizes that something isn’t right.
• Sheffield continues to get some at-bats.  Not sure when Leyland will recognize that this isn’t right.
• Zach Miner might be a decent starting pitcher (2-0).  Upsetting that management didn’t see this earlier in the year.
• Detroit can play a lot better;  they can get hot.  I don’t think that the White Sox will play any better then they already have.  I’m still concerned about Minnesota, who is trying to make some deadline deals.
• Some minor leaguers seem to be getting hot.  This can either help the team down the stretch or at least provide some hope for the future.  I don’t see Detroit depleting the farm system any further this winter.
• I don’t see any trades in the next few days.  Most (not all) of the players detroit would try to trade would pass through waivers with their contracts.  If someone claimed Sheffield, I could easily see Detroit just washing their hands of him.
• Would an NL team take Renteria off Detroit’s hands?  Doubtful.
• With a couple of teams looking for catching help (Marlins, Yankees), i doubt Pudge would pass through waivers.
• I had a great lunch at Slow’s BBQ yesterday, and saw Tiger stadium being demolished.  After hanging in the neighborhood, it still makes no sense how anyone could make a logical argument to save it.

Detroit Tigers Thoughts had some great posts here and here, breaking down the value and requirements for Detroit to get a draft pick for losing Pudge in the off-season.  I have no idea how to calculate these things, so we’re going to run with his numbers for this discussion.

The idea of trading Pudge now would be to get some value — the Tigers aren’t looking to shed any salary at the moment.  For a short term player, you would think that a high draft pick in next year’s draft might give more value then a prospect or two that someone like Florida might offer.  So ideally, you keep Pudge for the rest of the year, offer him arbitration, and do ‘the Oakland’ and let him walk.

Here’s the risk:  at $10million (the required arbitration amount), Pudge might take it.  Can you see him making more money next year in the open market, even in a multi-year deal?  Maybe someone is dumb enough to give him $15 million over 3 years, but his bat is declining significantly that Leyland had to give him more time off to help him recover.  Granted he is as durable as ever (more so then the younger Brandon Inge), but i can’t see a team breaking the bank on a 37 year old catcher.  So if you were Pudge, you’d take the $10million, play out the year, and then hope for a smaller two year contract… which, collectively, would be worth more then any three year option he’ll be given in the off-season.  Pudge is sitting at 2578 career hits;  he’ll want to play until he gets 3000.

Another problem is, if Pudge re-signs with Detroit, he becomes a ‘10 and 5′ guy.  He’ll have the ability to veto any trade, whether or not its in his contract.  I don’t know the current contract situation, but it seems you’d like roster flexibility in your 37 year old $10million catcher.

Next… depending on what you do with Brandon Inge, you now have over $16million committed in catcher salaries, on guys who don’t hit that well (taking into account Pudge’s continued decline).

A better situation would be to NOT offer Pudge arbitration, but to sign him to a two year deal for significantly less money.  That is based on what Detroit feels is their catching depth (not looking good for next year, might be looking up overall).  Though I don’t know the market enough to know what Pudge would demand in the open market.  Again, i think they’re going to have to make a decision on what Inge is (utility player, starting catcher, etc) and work the numbers based on position.

A big issue is, as much as you assume Pudge will continue to decline in hitting, he’s still better then Inge.  It would be hard to let him go if you have any chance at the playoffs.  You’d think that Pudge would clear waivers in August, but if the Yankees are hurting with Posada out, he might not clear.

So what’s the verdict?  Hard to tell.  I don’t think it would be wise to hold onto Pudge thinking you’re going to get a draft pick.  I don’t know if its worth trading him for players that don’t have much potential.  If you could get some quality depth, thats a different story.  Could you bundle him and another player (Raburn, Thames, Rodney??) for better prospects?  Maybe an even better move.  My guess is Detroit sits tight.

This either could be very interesting, or it could just be a blip on the fifth starter screen (ala Eddie Bonine)… but Zach Miner’s start last night has to be enouraging for a team looking for starting pitching.  As Nate Robertson has shown he’s not any more then a fifth starter, and without holding out too much hope for an unknown (Galarraga) or a 40+ year old (kenny rogers), a ‘miner’ resurrgence could really help the team.  I don’t think they have any assets to trade for a solid starting pitcher — Joe Blanton is nice and cheap, but how much of an upgrade would he have been?

So, nearly a week after the all-star break, and Detroit has picked up 1.5 games on the division lead.  Yesterday’s beating on the Royals creates a good feeling deep down, but they have to dominate KC for the rest of the year in order to have a chance.

Matt Joyce continues to impress, as does Sheffield when they limit his at-bats.  This rotation might work out pretty well in Leyland’s favor:  he can continue to rest the older players and still get the lefty / righty matchups that he prefers.

One start does not a career make, but if Miner turns out to be a solid rotation guy, would this be another blunder in Detroit’s coaching this year (keeping him in the bullpen forever)?  Up there with “letting Gary Sheffield play in the field”, or “letting Gary Sheffield play when he’s hurt because he wants to”, or “allowing Jason Grilli to ever pitch for this team”?  I understand Leyland liking the sinkerball for more ground outs (and i’ve questioned this before), but it does seem that Miner does not excel in situations that involve him coming in to clean up another pitcher’s mess.

Freddy Dolsi has had some trouble lately, and that is a concern if Fernando Rodney really is on the trading block.

Four games into the post-all star break portion of the season, and the Tigers are right where they were previously.  Unless the rest of the division absolutely collapses, its not looking good for a playoff run, since i’m assuming an 81-81 record isn’t going to extend the schedule into October.  They don’t have enough pitching to make a run.  Can they get to 90 wins?  Thats possible.

Who would they look to move?  I can’t imagine the team is going to be blown up.  No one in their right mind would want Sheffield;  Pudge might have some suitors, but on a short lease he isn’t going to draw much talent in return.  The bullpen is still shaky, so moving Rodney doesn’t make much sense either.

More questions have arisen:

• Is Inge ready to catch full time next year?  His bat is still awful.
• Has Inge’s defense at third recently started to make the team realize what they miss when Guillen or Cabrera is playing third?
• Has Ramon Santiago played and hit well enough to get more playing time?
• When will Marcus Thames hit the wall?  Will he hit a wall?
• Who does Matt Joyce think he is?

I wonder if Detroit will make some minor moves to take a step towards next season.  I can’t see them moving any big names (Magglio, Granderson, Guillen).  I can’t see going into next year with Sheffield on the team, either.  They look to have a lot of outfield prospects ready to play in the majors, and Thames has surprised most people with his play, nailing down a starting position.  I think they’re going to want a right handed outfielder who can also play center (Clevlen?  Raburn?), but they’ll need a roster spot.  Joyce has powered his way into the picture, and Clete Thomas has shown a good eye at the plate.  Jeff Larish I think can play in this league as well, but there doesn’t seem to be enough bats to go around.  Its an interesting question whether Larish could play third full time (apparently he played third in college).

Who would seem to have a lot of value right now?  Marcus Thames.  Can I see Detroit trading him?  No.  Should they?  Maybe.  His value will never be higher, and his slugging percentage and batting average are much better then his career averages.  It seems that he might be due for a market correction in the remaining games.. and if not, what are the chances he doesn’t return to a .240 hitter next year?

Always a fan of the young guys, I continue to wonder if Detroit would be better off with a faster, more defensive team that hits for power.  Guys like Clevlen, Joyce, Rayburn, Granderson, Thomas…  Will Dombrowski make a move that opens up some roster spots?

I wasn’t planning on watching the all-star game last night, but I got home at 9:30 (12:30 EST) and for some reason the game was still on.  And i loved the three or so innings that I saw:

• At that point, the players and pitchers had settled down.  Great defense (minus Uggla, who seems to be the ‘Miguel Cabrera playing third base’ version of a second baseman), great sportsmanship, great strategy (sacrafices, intentional walks, etc).  Neither team wanted to lose the game.
• Love the slide by Morneau.  He runs like an elephant.  A very very slow elephant.
• Love the slide sign (down, to your right!) by Carlos Quinton, the on-deck batter.  Maybe its just the angle of the camera that showed it, but the little fundamentals that the great ones do make you really appreciate that game.  Again, maybe every player does that, but remembering the little things (even when you aren’t involved in the play or even on the field, like Quentin at the time), even in an all-star game, makes these guys all-stars.
• They said they would have gone with emergency pitchers;  I wonder if Francona had thought about just throwing the game.
• Loved the enthusiasm by the AL team after winning;  nice hugs for Leyland.
• Love the nonchalant manner of Michael Young, after hitting the winning sac fly.  In the Barry Sanders mold of “pretend you’ve been there before”… Young has been there before, winning the 2006 all-star game with a triple in the top of the ninth.
• Love the throw and attempted tag on Morneau… a tad late, but great attempt.
• Love the Umpire getting the call right
• Wonder if the Umpire would have called ’safe’ just to get everyone out of there.

Overally, I don’t think its fair that this decides home field advantage, but I do like how the game felt like it meant something to the players.  Unlike the NHL, NBA or the ghastly NFL pro bowl, the players had pride.

Clete down, Maggs back in… Joyce and Larish stay up.  Larish will probably be sent down when Bonine (or another starter) is recalled.  Joyce got a couple of starts last week over Thomas, so this isn’t too big of a surprise.  What is surprising is the power Joyce has shown, and the lack of power Thomas seems to have.

I wonder if this is also a move that may mean some DH duty for Joyce?  Detroit now lacks a true backup center fielder (Raburn is the most logical choice, Inge could continue spot duty).  Unless more moves are upcoming, maybe Detroit feels that Granderson is going to play 60 of the next 68 games.  Or at most of the games from now until September, when the rosters expand and (most likely) Thomas and maybe Clevlen are recalled.

Granderson is a potential all-star who has been hot and cold all year.  I’m not quite sure how Raburn fits in at center; he’s only played there for 22 innings this year, while playing 63 innings there last year.  Though at this point, with the long-ish layoff and rosters expanding in about seven weeks, maybe its time to let the boys play.

Back to Joyce.. does this mean less playing time for Sheffield?  I imagine Joyce could use more at-bats, as he seems to have hit himself into consideration for playing time next year.  Wouldn’t Toledo be a better place to get those at-bats?  Based on previous years’ output, Thames will probably see a slightly reduced workload over the next few months, as Leyland will do his best to keep Thames fresh.  But in a part time role, with the lack of a true backup center fielder (see above), Clete Thomas would have been the better choice to ‘ride the pine’.  Maybe Leyland thinks he can get enough at-bats for Joyce between the corner outfield positions and DH to make it worthwhile.

Quick count of who Detroit has to play the rest of the season:

Total games:  68

Games against teams above .500:  35 (ugh)

Games at home:  33

Games against Minnesota:  3 (not until Sept 5!!)

Games against Chicago White Sox:  9

Games against KC:  12

If the White Sox continue with the division lead, Detroit can make up quite a bit of ground over the next few months.  However, they don’t play Minnesota enough to decide their own destiny if the Sox can’t hold on.

My guess earlier today was 95 wins to take the Division.  Here’s the division breakdown if everyone continues at their current pace (approx)

1. Chicago White Sox  93 W  (.574)
2. Minnesota Twins     90 W (.558)
3. Detroit Tigers          82 W (.500)
4. KC Royals                73 W (.448)
5. Cleveland Indians    71 W (.436)

At this moment, Tampa Bay would take the wild card with 95 wins.

After Detroit limped / roared into the all-star break (losing a series / winning the final game), they sit at 47-47, with 68 games left to play after the break.  Obviously it isn’t a true ‘midway’ point to the season, but its a good time to look at the team, where they hope to be at the end of the season, and how to get there.  I should be spending some time looking into this over the next few days.

Where does Detroit need to be at the end of the season?  I’m guessing in the 95 win range.  Why?  The last 5 AL Central Division leaders averaged 95 wins (well, 94.6) a year:

• 2007: 96 (Cleveland)
• 2006: 96 (Minny)
• 2005: 99 (Chicago)
• 2004: 92 (Minny)
• 2003: 90 (Minny)

Wild card average over the last five years is actually higher, at 95.4, mainly attributed to the loaded AL East teams.

This means Detroit needs to play over .700 ball to go at least 48-20 over the last 68 games.  I hope that the division can beat itself up a little, to help slow down the White Sox and the Twins… winning the division at 90 or 92 wins would obviously be preferred then getting all the way to 95.  The wild card looks tough this year, currently with five other non-division leading teams (Oakland, Texas, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, New York) ahead of Detroit, with two more (Toronto, Baltimore) nipping at their heels.

Just some quick numbers so far into the season:

• After their loss to Oakland on June 6, they were 12 games under .500, at 24-36 (.400 winning percentage).
• Since then, they were 23-11, a .676 winning percentage.
• On a slightly better note, they were 22-8 going into the last series against Minnesota… .733 win percentage.

Other note:

I’m think its kind of a classy move that Illitch is flying Minnesota’s all stars to the game, with Leyland’s suggestion and Gardenhire’s permission.  I hate Cleveland and Chicago’s rosters, but for some reason I don’t resent Minnesota’s players as much.  Probably I’m just amazed that Minnesota can find these studs (Morneau and Mauer via the draft, Joe Nathan via trade with SF) with such a limited payroll.  Though I’m not a fan of Nick Punto;  his name just sounds dirty.

Not the nostalgic type, I’m not heartbroken by the loss of Tiger Stadium.  Sad?  Eh.  People are crazy so i’m not surprised that people are crying about the stadium.  And while I understand the idea of saving the field and creating a memorial field… actually no, i don’t understand that either.  And for $12 to $15 million?  MILLION?  Ouch.  Good luck with that.

Listen, I’ve had good times at the Stadium.  I’ve also had good times at Mandalay Bay Casino, and i won’t be shedding any tears when they implode that beast.  Actually I’ve had better time at Mandalay.  But thats another story.

I’ve re-written this post 4 times already.  I think it comes down to this:  After arguing with plenty of family and friends over the last 10 years, I’ve come to the conclusion that the city of Detroit is a few different things… what it is, and what people want it to be.  Many people confuse “What it is” with “What they want it to be”.  The exact same principle can be applied with Tiger Stadium.  “what they want it to be” is a historic landmark where people have a lot of memories, that will provide a place for people to come and visit, maybe have baseball leagues.  “What it is” is a historic landmark that has a lot of memories that happens to be in the middle of nowhere in a city that has an increasing amount of middle of nowheres.

Where I see a tiger stadium memorial field ‘going’?  A field in a blah part of town in a city that doesn’t have money to support it (or support for the roads in and out of it), that will depend on people driving great distances to use it… people that have better facilities closer to home.  That’s my reality.. the lager house crowd isn’t playing American Legion baseball.  But its your right to donate to the fund that needs $12 to $15million… especially if you think the best use of $12 to $15million in Detroit would be to a baseball field in corktown.

UPDATE:  I just read the plan.. located at http://www.savetigerstadium.org/the_plan.htm.  I had listened to the detroit tigers podcast interview a few months ago on this… and after reading the plan… wow.  Its worse then i thought.  Yes, corktown has grown significantly since 1999.  That’s impressive?  How has it grown?  By a few sports memorabilia shops, a sports bar, and a restaurant (one that i’m proud to say I puked in the afternoon after my 30th birthday) that had revenue higher then expectations?  Because they’re building condos that won’t sell? (Note to the group:  Its a bad time to mention real estate).  Alright, you got me.  Due to the success of one year of slow’s BBQ, this obviously is a great idea.  Man this is worse then I ever feared.

A re-imagined and redeveloped Tiger Stadium will go a
long way toward filling the housing, retail and recreational needs of this growing and vibrant
population.

Woo-Hoo!  $10 that the person writing that lives in Oakland County (yes I’m from there).  Know what would also help?  Jobs.  Roads.  Public transportation.  Grocery Stores.  Security.  A technologically advanced automaker.  A non-corrupt Mayor.  A decent school sytem.  OH.. OH.. and a redeveloped Tiger Stadium.

Good Times.

As pissy as Jimmy Leyland seems to be over the all star schedule, apparently no one mentioned to Detroit that the series against the Indians was over, and in fact the Minnesota Twins were their opponent yesterday afternoon.  It was a bizarre 1pm EST game (which I love, since i can listen to it at work), and that would help explain the bullpen’s lackadaisical approach to closing out the game, or the offense taking the second half of the game off.

Hard to fault the youngsters for failing to produce (rough ninth inning for Matt Joyce, tough batting for Joyce and Larish late in the game) but they played as well as you can expect rookies to play.  The closer needs to close out the game, and letting the first two men you face reach base, especially the number EIGHT AND NINE HITTERS, is inexcusable.  But thats what we get with Todd Jones.

Thoughts:

• Bobby Seay really seems to be hot or cold.  Ninth inning, brought in to face a left hander, and he walks him on four straight pitches?
• Morneau is a machine.  He was followed by Mike Lamb, and apologies to Mike Lamb, but someone i’ve never heard of.  One out, their best hitter at the plate… maybe you walk Morneau (either intentionally or just don’t give him anything to hit) and take your chances with the guy hitting .224.  Hindsight obviously, but who else in Minny’s lineup would you think was going to hit a game winning home run?
• Haven’t read anything about it, but anyone else a little suprised that Rayburns gets an at-bat at the DH position in the bottom of the 11th?  Isn’t there another right handed batter that makes $13million somewhere on the bench?  Name starts with ‘G’… ends with ‘ary Sheffield’?  You’ve already lost Rayburn as a fielding replacement, what were you holding back for Sheffield?